(09-20-2019 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-19-2019 07:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so Nats get lucky even with the loss, they don't lose ground on Cubs/Brewers.

If Nats go 6-5, they're in great shape-to get to 89.... Cubs/Cards- worst case for them is Cubs go 5-2 vs Cards, and then both sweep out. That gets both Cards/Cubs to 90. Brewers would have to go 8-2 to beat the Nats. Phillies would have to go 12-0 to beat Nats(and realistically that would mean Nats sweep both Marlins/Indians- but get swept by Phillies). Mets would have to win out to force a tie.

Brewers could not really afford to lose the other night, but last night's win was a good time. They remain 1 back of the Nats. They have 9 left - Pirates, Reds and Rockies. If they go 6-3, the Nats need to go 6-3 to hold on to home field in the WC game. Home field isn't a huge advantage for the Brewers, as their final game is in Coors, so they not only have to travel after the game, but I assume their pen will be a bit wrecked. Nats final game is home vs Cleveland, so they can wait to see where they're going. The big question in that series is, will the Indians be playing for anything? They're currently tied for the 2nd WC with the Rays.

Going to be a fun finish.

if Brewers go 6-3, Nats would need to go 7-4 to beat them.

One thing for sure for the Brewers- they're now the kind of team that the Dodgers again don't want to see. Their bullpen has gotten back to "normal" if you will. Brewers August 21 was 64-62. Since then 19-8. Bullpen has a 3.08 ERA- with these performances
Suter 0.73 ERA 2.65 FIP in 12.1 ip
Hader 1.26 ERA 1.19 FIP in 14.1 ip
Pomeranz 1.29 ERA 0.93 FIP in 14 ip
Peralta 2.08 ERA -0.25 FIP in 8.2 ip
Guerra 2.08 ERA 4.14 FIP in 13 ip
Black 2.79 ERA 5.60 FIP in 9.2 ip
Claudio 2.89 ERA 6.43 FIP in 9.1 ip
Jackson 3.65 ERA 3.62 FIP in 12.1 ip

one big difference should they see the Dodgers from last year- while last year they only had Xavier Cedeno as a lefty reliever aside from Hader- this year they have Suter, Pomeranz, and Claudio. They're going to be able to match up a lot better this year than they did last year IMO.

(09-20-2019 08:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-19-2019 07:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so Nats get lucky even with the loss, they don't lose ground on Cubs/Brewers.

If Nats go 6-5, they're in great shape-to get to 89.... Cubs/Cards- worst case for them is Cubs go 5-2 vs Cards, and then both sweep out. That gets both Cards/Cubs to 90. Brewers would have to go 8-2 to beat the Nats. Phillies would have to go 12-0 to beat Nats(and realistically that would mean Nats sweep both Marlins/Indians- but get swept by Phillies). Mets would have to win out to force a tie.

Brewers could not really afford to lose the other night, but last night's win was a good time. They remain 1 back of the Nats. They have 9 left - Pirates, Reds and Rockies. If they go 6-3, the Nats need to go 6-3 to hold on to home field in the WC game. Home field isn't a huge advantage for the Brewers, as their final game is in Coors, so they not only have to travel after the game, but I assume their pen will be a bit wrecked. Nats final game is home vs Cleveland, so they can wait to see where they're going. The big question in that series is, will the Indians be playing for anything? They're currently tied for the 2nd WC with the Rays.

Going to be a fun finish.

if Brewers go 6-3, Nats would need to go 7-4 to beat them.

One thing for sure for the Brewers- they're now the kind of team that the Dodgers again don't want to see. Their bullpen has gotten back to "normal" if you will. Brewers August 21 was 64-62. Since then 19-8. Bullpen has a 3.08 ERA- with these performances
Suter 0.73 ERA 2.65 FIP in 12.1 ip
Hader 1.26 ERA 1.19 FIP in 14.1 ip
Pomeranz 1.29 ERA 0.93 FIP in 14 ip
Peralta 2.08 ERA -0.25 FIP in 8.2 ip
Guerra 2.08 ERA 4.14 FIP in 13 ip
Black 2.79 ERA 5.60 FIP in 9.2 ip
Claudio 2.89 ERA 6.43 FIP in 9.1 ip
Jackson 3.65 ERA 3.62 FIP in 12.1 ip

one big difference should they see the Dodgers from last year- while last year they only had Xavier Cedeno as a lefty reliever aside from Hader- this year they have Suter, Pomeranz, and Claudio. They're going to be able to match up a lot better this year than they did last year IMO.

Whoops, forgot the Nats have 11 games left, not 9.

That's all well and good, but the Nats can much better withstand a WC game and compete in the DS.

(09-20-2019 08:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 08:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 08:15 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(09-19-2019 07:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so Nats get lucky even with the loss, they don't lose ground on Cubs/Brewers.

If Nats go 6-5, they're in great shape-to get to 89.... Cubs/Cards- worst case for them is Cubs go 5-2 vs Cards, and then both sweep out. That gets both Cards/Cubs to 90. Brewers would have to go 8-2 to beat the Nats. Phillies would have to go 12-0 to beat Nats(and realistically that would mean Nats sweep both Marlins/Indians- but get swept by Phillies). Mets would have to win out to force a tie.

Brewers could not really afford to lose the other night, but last night's win was a good time. They remain 1 back of the Nats. They have 9 left - Pirates, Reds and Rockies. If they go 6-3, the Nats need to go 6-3 to hold on to home field in the WC game. Home field isn't a huge advantage for the Brewers, as their final game is in Coors, so they not only have to travel after the game, but I assume their pen will be a bit wrecked. Nats final game is home vs Cleveland, so they can wait to see where they're going. The big question in that series is, will the Indians be playing for anything? They're currently tied for the 2nd WC with the Rays.

Going to be a fun finish.

if Brewers go 6-3, Nats would need to go 7-4 to beat them.

One thing for sure for the Brewers- they're now the kind of team that the Dodgers again don't want to see. Their bullpen has gotten back to "normal" if you will. Brewers August 21 was 64-62. Since then 19-8. Bullpen has a 3.08 ERA- with these performances
Suter 0.73 ERA 2.65 FIP in 12.1 ip
Hader 1.26 ERA 1.19 FIP in 14.1 ip
Pomeranz 1.29 ERA 0.93 FIP in 14 ip
Peralta 2.08 ERA -0.25 FIP in 8.2 ip
Guerra 2.08 ERA 4.14 FIP in 13 ip
Black 2.79 ERA 5.60 FIP in 9.2 ip
Claudio 2.89 ERA 6.43 FIP in 9.1 ip
Jackson 3.65 ERA 3.62 FIP in 12.1 ip

one big difference should they see the Dodgers from last year- while last year they only had Xavier Cedeno as a lefty reliever aside from Hader- this year they have Suter, Pomeranz, and Claudio. They're going to be able to match up a lot better this year than they did last year IMO.

Whoops, forgot the Nats have 11 games left, not 9.

That's all well and good, but the Nats can much better withstand a WC game and compete in the DS.

both the Nats and Brewers present problems. Brewers because Hader can steal games- and would only need to do so 3 times. Nats obviously with the starters. Either one is not good for the Dodgers.

(09-20-2019 08:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  both the Nats and Brewers present problems. Brewers because Hader can steal games- and would only need to do so 3 times. Nats obviously with the starters. Either one is not good for the Dodgers.

Apologies for the blinding glimpse of the obvious, but it's the post season - there are very few "good" matchups for anyone.

(09-20-2019 12:36 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 08:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  both the Nats and Brewers present problems. Brewers because Hader can steal games- and would only need to do so 3 times. Nats obviously with the starters. Either one is not good for the Dodgers.

Apologies for the blinding glimpse of the obvious, but it's the post season - there are very few "good" matchups for anyone.

2 things-
I'd say there are- last years Braves a good example of a good matchup. This years Twins a great example.

Also, for the #1 seed- the Nats/Brewers are as bad of matchups as you could see from a traditional wild card team....

I doubt we disagree here; it's just what you would call a "good" matchup I'd call, "less tough" or something similar. All these teams are quality teams. If you were looking at a section of the regular season and the Nats were facing consecutive series against LA, StL, ATL, you'd say it's gonna be a difficult stretch and you'd absolutely have lowered expectations for the outcome. NOW, are some of those teams potentially less difficult than others? Of course.

think it's interesting- fan graphs is doing their annual look at the Cy Young races....
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-...ter-guide/

The NL race is interesting. They came up with a WAR based on xwOBA....

what is insane is who leads the Dodgers this season.... That's right, Kenta Maeda.... #9 in the entire NL.

You wonder with him- if he didn't have the contract with the incentives for starting- would the Dodgers leave him alone as a starter, and just how good could he be?

(09-20-2019 01:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  think it's interesting- fan graphs is doing their annual look at the Cy Young races....
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-...ter-guide/

The NL race is interesting. They came up with a WAR based on xwOBA....

what is insane is who leads the Dodgers this season.... That's right, Kenta Maeda.... #9 in the entire NL.

You wonder with him- if he didn't have the contract with the incentives for starting- would the Dodgers leave him alone as a starter, and just how good could he be?

Are we reading the same table? Walker Buehler, who at last check still pitched for the Dodgers, is #5.

I know you're like a dog with a bone when it comes to the luxury threshold, but I GUARAN-DAMN-TEE you he is in the bullpen because of his ability to contribute there and not because of his contract. I mean, I think we've had a couple of conversations about the Dodgers' pen. We have all known, and it was reinforced at the trade deadline, that the Dodgers were going to be "improving from within" before the end of the season. Maeda has been part of that for a while.

To me the fascinating (and frightening) standout is Jack Flaherty. He was a virtual zero in the first half so the vast majority of his value was generated from July on. Incredible how good that guy's second half has been.

(09-20-2019 01:29 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 01:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  think it's interesting- fan graphs is doing their annual look at the Cy Young races....
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-...ter-guide/

The NL race is interesting. They came up with a WAR based on xwOBA....

what is insane is who leads the Dodgers this season.... That's right, Kenta Maeda.... #9 in the entire NL.

You wonder with him- if he didn't have the contract with the incentives for starting- would the Dodgers leave him alone as a starter, and just how good could he be?

Are we reading the same table? Walker Buehler, who at last check still pitched for the Dodgers, is #5.

I know you're like a dog with a bone when it comes to the luxury threshold, but I GUARAN-DAMN-TEE you he is in the bullpen because of his ability to contribute there and not because of his contract. I mean, I think we've had a couple of conversations about the Dodgers' pen. We have all known, and it was reinforced at the trade deadline, that the Dodgers were going to be "improving from within" before the end of the season. Maeda has been part of that for a while.

lol, missed him. But still he's ahead of Ryu and Kershaw....

Lets see the final tax numbers and see exactly where they are. On the truebluela spreadsheet for a 206 million number, they're at 205,691,075.

If that number is accurate- something to really watch... Kershaw is at 26 starts right now. At 28 he gets another million. Do the Dodgers try to skip him to prepare for the playoffs(or even use an opener with him)...

And I wasn't even really talking about the tax quite frankly. I just wonder if he had all along a normal contract how he would have been handled.... Do they even dabble him as a reliever? Do they offer Ryu a QO last year, knowing Maeda can replace him?

(09-20-2019 01:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  To me the fascinating (and frightening) standout is Jack Flaherty. He was a virtual zero in the first half so the vast majority of his value was generated from July on. Incredible how good that guy's second half has been.

kind of similar to Kluber 2 years ago, except Kluber got started in June instead of July.

well the NL Cy Young race is over now in my mind. de Grom with 7 scoreless in Cincy.

wow a really concerning for Dodger fans start tonight for Kershaw. 4 runs in 4 innings so far with 3 homers given up. 1st time he had given up 2 homers in 1st inning of a game since his rookie season. 13 homers now given up in his last 6 starts- with 20 er in 32.1 innings pitched.

Kershaw did tonight what some starters can't do.... bounce back from a bad start to the start and finish strongly. 2 more scoreless innings and now he's going to pick up another win.

still a major concern imo for the playoffs...

did see the Dodgers adjusted the rotation. Kershaw tonight, Buehler tomorrow, and Ryu on Sunday. You wonder if that's the order for the playoffs...

Oh and did see Rich Hill is going to start on Tuesday. Sounds like he could possibly still believe it or not be in line to start game 4 of the LDS(for about 60 pitches).

(09-20-2019 11:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Kershaw did tonight what some starters can't do.... bounce back from a bad start to the start and finish strongly. 2 more scoreless innings and now he's going to pick up another win.

still a major concern imo for the playoffs...

Holy crap you’re like the hand wringers on twitter except you’re drooling.

Quote:Oh and did see Rich Hill is going to start on Tuesday. Sounds like he could possibly still believe it or not be in line to start game 4 of the LDS(for about 60 pitches).

I believe you prefer the term “open.”

lol at feeling good about Kershaw right now. 20 er in his last 34.1 innings pitched with 13 homers. That's problematic. It's not like Buehlers start tonight where sure it's 3 runs in 4 innings- but it's more of an isolated thing.

Severino with 5 scoreless today with 9 k's. He makes the Yankees so scary right now.

Freaking brewers win again. Don't think I've ever been so wrong about a team. They've rallied without Yelich, and with today's Nats loss to the Marlins, the brewers find themselves in the top WC spot. Just an amazing story.

Cardinals heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. Finished the 4 game sweep at Wrigley and eliminating the Cubs from the division race.

(09-22-2019 05:32 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Freaking brewers win again. Don't think I've ever been so wrong about a team. They've rallied without Yelich, and with today's Nats loss to the Marlins, the brewers find themselves in the top WC spot. Just an amazing story.

they got really lucky on the schedule IMO. what a time to have a really soft schedule...