(09-07-2019 01:08 AM)pesik Wrote: like we'll said we'll have to wait till the season..
as far as houston..not to seem like a homer, houston was tier higher than everyone else in the aac last season (other aac coaches said this) ..even falling some shouldn't put us out of the top 4...
and personally i don't think houston falling, i think houston will be better than last season (not record wise, talking quality of the team wise)
Sampson said he came into last season thinking dejon and fabian were supposed to be our top 2 scorers Last season..sampson still says he is shocked how good we were after both got injured before the season and came back sluggish after missing games (how corey an galen stepped up)..he has never denied our backups (this years players) were the most talented on roster, and it multiple times in interviews
if grimes is eligible all 3 starting guards will be 6'5+, dejon with super long arms, and nate/grimes extremely muscular. all former elite recruits all now experienced...all 3 talked about as nba draft picks .....at the 4, is where we are deepest. Sampson called fabian a "grown man" and a standout after the italian tour, now that he is in shape...and called justin gorham (transfer from towson) likely backup, "his dream 4"..who had multiple double double on foreign trip
our backup guards; include early enrollee caleb mills who sampson says is the best offensive recruit he has had at houston.....and the guy overlook by everyone including houston fans (becuase he didnt have fancy offers/rankings) marcus sasser, changed quick after he lead the team in scoring the 1st 3 games of the foreign tour ...(did 27pts a game in HS/werent sure it would translate..looks good early)
we were a top 10 rebounding team last year, sampson says we'll be better this yr..our huge guards likely also produce another top defense....and though 3pt shooting will be worse, houston will have a way more dynamic/driving offense
im not trying to change your mind about houston...just stating where i stand preseason, to see where we are at the end of the season....
you dont see houston top 4 even with grimes....i think houston is lock at top 4 irregardless...houston is fighting for a top 6 seed another sweet 16+ with grimes
as for usf, they have the most proven all-conference worthy players in the conference (rideau, collins, yetna) and could have more by seasons end..last season was the 1st year 75% of their roster was in gregorys system & started multiple freshman.. and still won the CBI in one of the biggest turn around in college basketball... next year 100% returns w/ everyone now familiar with gregory's system..including the top 100 4star they added (who was sitting on transfer rules)
if you dont seem see a reason to optimistic about usf you are blinded by your love for temple to realize how blatantly obvious it is to see USF's potential this season...
no offense i can tell you arent familiar with any other AAC teams besides google-able stats ...
Thanks for your insight into Houston bb.
I agree that Houston’s record reflected that it was the best team in the conference, but would not go so far as saying it stood by itself in a tier above everyone else. And I agree with you that Houston is not likely repeat the outstanding record they had in conference play last season, and won’t at all if conference opponents figure out that first and foremost they must shut down Houston’s three-point shooting which is not that hard to do.
The issue is whether Houston with their loss of three high-powered scorers, has replenished enough to offset the improvement of Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, and UConn.
I’ve reviewed video’s of Mills and Sasser, and believe both, especially Mills, will contribute immediately, and that alleviates somewhat my concern about Houston losing three high powered offensive players. Grimes would solidify Houston’s offense as well. Can see why Houston fans excited about their new recruits. But, Houston still remains a very young team.
Will need to see if Grimes (if he is ruled eligible to play) is in the same elite category as Davis and Brooks who are both are gone. Do think Mills may be. But, without Grimes playing, it’s difficult to say how good a team Houston is.
We know Houston had an outstanding defense keeping lopponent 2-point percentage very low. What I don’t know is how much Brooks and Brady departing, both above average defensive players. will effect Houston’s defensive play.
Do agree that Houston’s superiority in three-point shooting is going to take a hit like and decline somewhat, but by how much is an open question? Houston scored almost 20 points per game on three’s from Davis alone in conference play. If that cut in half than Houston’s huge scoring margin over opponents virtually evaporates. Still have reservations about Houston averaging again 77 points per game as they did conference play last season, but certainly possible.
What does seem likely is that Houston scoring margin over opponents is going to drop. An open question is how much?
The way to play and beat Houston is to deny the three-ball. Opponents didn’t do that last season. Instead off denying the ball or making the three-point shooters dribble, opponents did close-outs, a recipe’ for losing. No wonder Houston scored almost 30 of their 77 points on three-pointers. No wonder Houston shot
39 percent on three-point shots in conference play. Stop Houston’s the-point shooting and they’re an average team, as they don’t shot two’s that well, and don’t get to the foul-line often enough.
I’m concerned that Houston fouled too much and sent opponents to the foul-line more than than Houston went to the foul-line. Not good. Houston does not seem to have had players who can get to the foul-line. Will that change this season?
Also of concern is the fact that Houston does not create a big turnover advantage over it’s opponents like Temple did last season. Having 3 or 4 extra scoring opportunities off of the turnover differential is huge in determining the outcomes of games. Houston simply does not steal the ball very often.
And even though Houston creates extra scoring opportunities off of garnering more offensive rebounds than it’s opponents, such has much less impact than the turnover differential does, in a game’s ultimate outcome. As an Houston opponent can still defend after Houston gets an offensive rebound.
The turnover differential has more of an impact as teams rarely can defend and keep the opponent from scoring after they steal the ball.
Houston is also losing two good rebounders in Brooks and Brady. Who will replace that loss? Brady all shot
well.
I think we’ll all have a better handle after we see if Grimes is granted a waiver or not, and we see Houston play some good competition in non-conference games. Will say that given the fact that Grimes had a low two-point shooting percentage in conference play, and only got to the foul-line rarely, and shot only 40 percent at the foul-line In conference play, and it appears his only offensive prowess is in shooting three’s at 36 percent.
You’ll see for yourself that Temple’s James Scott is a much better player, As he shoots both 2’s and three’s better, will get to the foul more than Grimes m, and will shoot foul shots at 85 percent plus. And on defense, he makes steals at a good rate.
Agree that USF has a good PG coming in. Need to see how much an impact he will have.