texoma
2nd String
Posts: 480
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Collegefootball
Location: |
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-29-2019 01:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: (07-28-2019 10:46 PM)Wedge Wrote: OU is going to stay with UT unless UT moves first to a place that OU can't go to.
It's the only thing that makes sense from the university's perspective. Texas is where their out of state alumni live. OU football probably has more fans in Texas than any CFB team other than the Horns and Aggies.
I think OU is more tied to Bedlam than to the B12. The money gap is way too large to the B1G and SEC and growing, especially with the SEC about to get a significant bump (as in $10M per school) to put it back at the same level as the B1G. The next contract rounds could make that gap as much as $20M per school by 2025. And this is with the B12 getting a 20% premium to stay at 10 from CBS and ESPN. Unlike Texas, OU will not have $19M (average ... back end of $300M contract 3% escalator) per year flowing in for 6 years after June 2025 from the LHN. So that gap is more real to them than Texas. The B12N is a no go for Oklahoma, as it wont include Texas.
$200M in revenue over a decade is rather significant money, and Oklahoma will pay even $50M to move. (We have seen this same logic from many schools, pay up front for more return down the road).
I think the big impediment for them is keeping Bedlam going. The SEC would certainly allow it to remain on Thanksgiving, as four of the SEC schools are playing out of conference rivals that weekend also (Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina). The B1G would have to allow OU to schedule that game or the Red River rivalry with Texas on it's traditional date to get OU in the B1G.
I strongly suspect OU brass prefer the B1G over the SEC for both the path to the playoffs being easier and also the academic associations that will help fill seats in a state that has negative demographics. But the B1G needs to be flexible on Bedlam or Red River issue or else they wont get OU. If the B1G is not flexible, OU will go SEC instead. Their finances dictate it. Only a delusional fool thinks the B12 will get anywhere near that same 20% premium the next contract round.
(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State definitely have no shot of attaching themselves to Oklahoma. Their big value is bedlam, which the SEC would allow to continue. Both the B1G and SEC are made up almost exclusively of R1 flagships (Michigan State, Mississippi State and Auburn are legacy members, but are all R1 and Sparty is an AAU school). Oklahoma State does not come close to that. In Football and basketball budget Oklahoma State is outside the top 50. They do get good attendance, but below SEC and B1G averages and would be in the very bottom tier. The metrics simply say they are way short. Further Division-less football means the B1G/SEC have no need for a complimentary school. They can just take one.
The same is true for Texas Tech (except they have R1 status) and Texas. Further Lubbock is a ways to the west and not a market anyone cares about. The same metrics apply and the same reason not to be accepted by the SEC or B1G. The only conference where Tech could be dragged to is the P12, but Texas is not going to go that direction. If you are looking at the ACC and Texas deciding they have to drag a 2nd Texas school along, it would be TCU.
KU is a school I used to buy the logic for having realignment value. But the football metrics are horrible, they are off the back of P5, with crowd averages below the AAC (yikes!) at only 27K, while Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia all average 51-56K. Even smaller privates Baylor and TCU average almost 45K. KU's budget is the smallest for Football in P5, excepting Oregon State. They make Rutgers, Indiana, Pitt, Vanderbilt and Maryland football look robust.
As an institution KU is strong, with a far better AI than the same five public schools I mentioned above in the little 8, plus they have AAU membership and are a flagship. They are also a top ten Basketball program. But Basketball doesn't drive the bus. KU is investing massively in facilities --we see $111M this year in their "not by gender/sport" category-- but they are starting far behind even K State in the B12 and they need success now to change their fate, they can't wait 5 years for it to happen.
The value of the 3rd tier package for the little-8, when you subtracts production costs, is not very much money, probably less than half the $2M "sticker" price. None of those schools do anything for the SEC or B1G.
***********************
OU and UT moving together would be powerful. But are they working together? Does anybody work together with Texas in such matters? I think if Texas goes to OU and says we are moving to the B1G/SEC and we'd like you to come with us, then definitely they'd go. But I can't see OU sitting around and waiting on Texas like a hand maiden. They are the more disadvantaged school, so they are the one more likely to move. If they don't move then Texas would be happy to stay put.
Long post, but mostly good points. However, I would like to point out a couple of things. First you are wrong about Bedlam having to be played on Thanksgiving weekend. Over the years, it has been played other weekends. Recently, it has been moved from the Thanksgiving weekend
by the Big12 conference.
You have said before that OSU and Tech have no shot at being dragged along by OU or UT and I have pointed out to you before in the fastforward to 2025 thread, that the PAC or SEC would take them, if Texas was part of the deal.
I am not trying to dog you, just pointing out some things that are not accurate.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2019 11:08 AM by texoma.)
|
|
/
Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
