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Poll: Where will Oklahoma football play in 2026?
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Big 12 53.75% 43 53.75%
Big Ten 22.50% 18 22.50%
SEC 20.00% 16 20.00%
ACC 0% 0 0%
Pac-12 2.50% 2 2.50%
Independent 1.25% 1 1.25%
Total 80 vote(s) 100%
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Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #1
Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
Copycat poll! Where do you see the Oklahoma Sooners playing football in 2026?

My take:

The most likely result of the expiration of the Big 12's GoR in 2025 is that there is no change, and the schools renew for another decade or so.

Next most likely is Oklahoma leaving for the SEC. Better cultural and geographic fit than the Big Ten or Pac, and unlike the Big Ten, the SEC would take OSU. This leads to UT going independent in football while retaining non-football sports in the Big 12. Thus Bedlam and the RRR are preserved as in-conference and OOC annual matchups, respectively. UT keeps Tech, TCU, and maybe Baylor on the FB schedule every year while continuing to play the non-Texas Big 12 schools in FB, albeit much less frequently than annually. Now down to 7 full-time FB schools, the Big 12 promotes Cincinnati, UCF, and USF from the American, which in turn picks up FAU and FIU from CUSA, which stays put at 12.

SEC
Eastern: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech
Non-FB: Texas

American
East: East Carolina, FAU, FIU, Memphis, Temple
West: Houston, Navy (FB only), SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
Non-FB: Wichita State

CUSA
East: Charlotte, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, UAB, Western Kentucky
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA

Maybe the SEC would be clever enough to go with rotating pods, but I dunno. With 2 fixed divisions of 8, they'd drop protected crossovers and just have 1 rotating crossover.

If pods:

School: Protected crossover (play annually), Alternate crossover (play 2 years out of 3)

POD 1
Alabama: LSU, Florida
Auburn: Georgia, Mississippi State
Tennessee: Kentucky, Missouri
Vanderbilt: Ole Miss, South Carolina

POD 2
Florida: Texas A&M, Alabama
Georgia: Auburn, Oklahoma
Kentucky: Tennessee, Arkansas
South Carolina: Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt

POD 3
LSU: Alabama, Texas A&M
Mississippi State: Oklahoma, Auburn
Missouri: Arkansas, Tennessee
Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State

POD 4
Texas A&M: Florida, LSU
Oklahoma: Mississippi State, Georgia
Arkansas: Missouri, Kentucky
Oklahoma State: South Carolina, Ole Miss
(This post was last modified: 07-30-2019 04:58 PM by Nerdlinger.)
07-28-2019 09:09 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
I was going to make this poll eventually
07-28-2019 09:19 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 09:19 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I was going to make this poll eventually

But I beat ya! 03-razz

You want to do a series with all the Big 12 schools?
07-28-2019 09:35 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
There are polls for the only two that really matter—the rest would be overkill.

TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.
07-28-2019 10:05 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
Expanded B-12
07-28-2019 10:11 PM
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UTEPDallas Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
Big XII

They have an easier path to the CFP in the Big XII than the B1G and SEC.

Do they want to become like their old Big 8 rival Nebraska and Texas once big rival Arkansas?
07-28-2019 10:35 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
OU is going to stay with UT unless UT moves first to a place that OU can't go to.

It's the only thing that makes sense from the university's perspective. Texas is where their out of state alumni live. OU football probably has more fans in Texas than any CFB team other than the Horns and Aggies.
07-28-2019 10:46 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 09:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Copycat poll! Where do you see the Oklahoma Sooners playing football in 2026?

Honestly---this is the team that might make something happen. I dont think Texas will leave on its own accord. Im not as confident about Oklahoma. Ive generally put the odds of Texas staying in the Big 12 as 75-80%. It would be 100% if I thought Oklahoma was a certainty to stay in the Big12. But if Oklahoma leaves---so will Texas. I dont think they can afford to stay put if its going to be Texas and the 7 Dwarfs. So, since I truely believe the Big12 is still the best place for Oklahoma to be, I think its no more than a 20% chance that Oklahoma leaves--but if they do---so will Texas.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2019 11:10 PM by Attackcoog.)
07-28-2019 11:08 PM
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ChrisLords Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
None of the above. The big 16.
07-29-2019 04:32 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
SEC, and Texas can't follow. No other conference will allow Texas to keep their own Network, and Texas is too stubborn to give it up.Oklahoma want more money than they are getting where they are at.
07-29-2019 05:43 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-29-2019 04:32 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  None of the above. The big 16.

Is this Big 16 an expansion of the Big 12 or Big Ten? If so, vote for whichever of those it is.
07-29-2019 07:24 AM
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Pervis_Griffith Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
The answer to any "where ..." question is ...


... up your a$$ and to the left ....


04-cheers

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07-29-2019 09:23 AM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
either staying in the same conference or the Big Ten. OU has been pushing for the Big Ten for quite awhile.
07-29-2019 01:22 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 10:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  OU is going to stay with UT unless UT moves first to a place that OU can't go to.

It's the only thing that makes sense from the university's perspective. Texas is where their out of state alumni live. OU football probably has more fans in Texas than any CFB team other than the Horns and Aggies.

I think OU is more tied to Bedlam than to the B12. The money gap is way too large to the B1G and SEC and growing, especially with the SEC about to get a significant bump (as in $10M per school) to put it back at the same level as the B1G. The next contract rounds could make that gap as much as $20M per school by 2025. And this is with the B12 getting a 20% premium to stay at 10 from CBS and ESPN. Unlike Texas, OU will not have $19M (average ... back end of $300M contract 3% escalator) per year flowing in for 6 years after June 2025 from the LHN. So that gap is more real to them than Texas. The B12N is a no go for Oklahoma, as it wont include Texas.

$200M in revenue over a decade is rather significant money, and Oklahoma will pay even $50M to move. (We have seen this same logic from many schools, pay up front for more return down the road).

I think the big impediment for them is keeping Bedlam going. The SEC would certainly allow it to remain on Thanksgiving, as four of the SEC schools are playing out of conference rivals that weekend also (Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina). The B1G would have to allow OU to schedule that game or the Red River rivalry with Texas on it's traditional date to get OU in the B1G.

I strongly suspect OU brass prefer the B1G over the SEC for both the path to the playoffs being easier and also the academic associations that will help fill seats in a state that has negative demographics. But the B1G needs to be flexible on Bedlam or Red River issue or else they wont get OU. If the B1G is not flexible, OU will go SEC instead. Their finances dictate it. Only a delusional fool thinks the B12 will get anywhere near that same 20% premium the next contract round.

(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.

Oklahoma State definitely have no shot of attaching themselves to Oklahoma. Their big value is bedlam, which the SEC would allow to continue. Both the B1G and SEC are made up almost exclusively of R1 flagships (Michigan State, Mississippi State and Auburn are legacy members, but are all R1 and Sparty is an AAU school). Oklahoma State does not come close to that. In Football and basketball budget Oklahoma State is outside the top 50. They do get good attendance, but below SEC and B1G averages and would be in the very bottom tier. The metrics simply say they are way short. Further Division-less football means the B1G/SEC have no need for a complimentary school. They can just take one.

The same is true for Texas Tech (except they have R1 status) and Texas. Further Lubbock is a ways to the west and not a market anyone cares about. The same metrics apply and the same reason not to be accepted by the SEC or B1G. The only conference where Tech could be dragged to is the P12, but Texas is not going to go that direction. If you are looking at the ACC and Texas deciding they have to drag a 2nd Texas school along, it would be TCU.

KU is a school I used to buy the logic for having realignment value. But the football metrics are horrible, they are off the back of P5, with crowd averages below the AAC (yikes!) at only 27K, while Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia all average 51-56K. Even smaller privates Baylor and TCU average almost 45K. KU's budget is the smallest for Football in P5, excepting Oregon State. They make Rutgers, Indiana, Pitt, Vanderbilt and Maryland football look robust.

As an institution KU is strong, with a far better AI than the same five public schools I mentioned above in the little 8, plus they have AAU membership and are a flagship. They are also a top ten Basketball program. But Basketball doesn't drive the bus. KU is investing massively in facilities --we see $111M this year in their "not by gender/sport" category-- but they are starting far behind even K State in the B12 and they need success now to change their fate, they can't wait 5 years for it to happen.

The value of the 3rd tier package for the little-8, when you subtracts production costs, is not very much money, probably less than half the $2M "sticker" price. None of those schools do anything for the SEC or B1G.

***********************

OU and UT moving together would be powerful. But are they working together? Does anybody work together with Texas in such matters? I think if Texas goes to OU and says we are moving to the B1G/SEC and we'd like you to come with us, then definitely they'd go. But I can't see OU sitting around and waiting on Texas like a hand maiden. They are the more disadvantaged school, so they are the one more likely to move. If they don't move then Texas would be happy to stay put.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2019 04:41 PM by Stugray2.)
07-29-2019 01:41 PM
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johnintx Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-29-2019 01:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I think OU is more tied to Bedlam than to the B12. The money gap is way too large to the B1G and SEC and growing, especially with the SEC about to get a significant bump (as in $10M per school) to put it back at the same level as the B1G. The next contract rounds could make that gap as much as $20M per school by 2025. And this is with the B12 getting a 20% premium to stay at 10 from CBS and ESPN. Unlike Texas, OU will not have $19M (average ... back end of $300M contract 3% escalator) per year flowing in for 6 years after June 2025 from the LHN. So that gap is more real to them than Texas. The B12N is a no go for Oklahoma, as it wont include Texas.

$200M in revenue over a decade is rather significant money, and Oklahoma will pay even $50M to move. (We have seen this same logic from many schools, pay up front for more return down the road).

I think the big impediment for them is keeping Bedlam going. The SEC would certainly allow it to remain on Thanksgiving, as four of the SEC schools are playing out of conference rivals that weekend also (Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina). The B1G would have to allow OU to schedule that game or the Red River rivalry with Texas on it's traditional date to get OU in the B1G.

I strongly suspect OU brass prefer the B1G over the SEC for both the path to the playoffs being easier and also the academic associations that will help fill seats in a state that has negative demographics. But the B1G needs to be flexible on Bedlam or Red River issue or else they wont get OU. If the B1G is not flexible, OU will leave. Their finances dictate it. Only a delusional fool thinks the B12 will get anywhere near that same 20% premium the next contract round.

Stugray covers it well.

Today, the B12 serves OU well. We get to play longtime regional rivals, are nationally relevant, make a competitive amount of money, and have a reasonable pathway to the playoff. I don't believe this is sustainable after the next round of TV contracts, as the B1G and SEC will earn much more than the B12 will be able to make. Without a move, OU will be left behind by the TV money that only the B1G and SEC will be able to generate. OU will have to move.

The issue is: we have two rivals (though Bedlam is one-sided in football).

The OU-Texas game is huge for both sides. It is a big event, and a major fundraising opportunity for both schools. OU and Texas played in separate conferences for 89 years, and can keep the rivalry going as a non-conference game if necessary. OU obviously needs the Texas game, but Texas needs to hold on to its last rival. Both sides will find a way to make it work. Even if OU leaves the B12, they won't leave Texas.

OU and OSU are rivals in every sport. The two schools are connected politically (though not by statute). OU is still in the B12 today because former president Boren refused to shop OU alone to other conferences, and promoted both OU and OSU as a package. That dynamic no longer exists. OU will listen to a B1G or SEC offer alone, but the ability to bring OSU along is a deal-sealer that only the SEC would consider.

The OU administration would accept an invite from the B1G if offered. It would be beneficial to the university on the academic side. There would be opposition from the fan base, who would prefer to see an SEC West (even without Alabama) + crossover schedule over a B1G West + crossover schedule. Academically, the B1G would be a no-brainer (though the SEC isn't chopped liver). Athletically, it's a risk.

In my opinion, the SEC fits OU like a glove. OU is a similar school to most of the state flagships in the SEC, and the mix and emphasis of sports fits. In addition, there is a possibility that OSU would be able to come along. The SEC provides the best opportunity to keep rivalries with OSU and Texas and to retain exposure in the state of Texas.

If the money were equal or competitive, OU would stay in the B12. It is home. By 2025, there will be too much of a gap between OU's deal in the B12 and either the SEC or B1G. So, OU will be moving to either the B1G or SEC. If the fans and donors scream loud enough, it'll be the SEC. If the administration gets its way, it'll be the B1G.
(This post was last modified: 07-29-2019 05:35 PM by johnintx.)
07-29-2019 05:27 PM
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P5PACSEC Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 11:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 09:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Copycat poll! Where do you see the Oklahoma Sooners playing football in 2026?

Honestly---this is the team that might make something happen. I dont think Texas will leave on its own accord. Im not as confident about Oklahoma. Ive generally put the odds of Texas staying in the Big 12 as 75-80%. It would be 100% if I thought Oklahoma was a certainty to stay in the Big12. But if Oklahoma leaves---so will Texas. I dont think they can afford to stay put if its going to be Texas and the 7 Dwarfs. So, since I truely believe the Big12 is still the best place for Oklahoma to be, I think its no more than a 20% chance that Oklahoma leaves--but if they do---so will Texas.

If I remember correctly UH begged the Big 12 for inclusion. I'm sorry the Big 12 said NO to UH or you guys might be a dwarf like the rest of us worthless leeches.

I guess it's better to be a dwarf in a power conference playing UT and OU instead of being a tall midget in a gang of 5 conference playing schools your fans don't care about.
07-29-2019 07:25 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There are polls for the only two that really matter—the rest would be overkill.

TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.

Texas Tech will be fine but it is nice to have schools who respect Tech, OSU and KU.


It's better to have a ride than no ride at all. I'm sure plenty of g5 schools would love to be in our position.
07-29-2019 07:28 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There are polls for the only two that really matter—the rest would be overkill.

TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.

Don't forget that WVU has eastern options
07-29-2019 08:24 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-29-2019 08:24 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There are polls for the only two that really matter—the rest would be overkill.

TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.

Don't forget that WVU has eastern options

If you mean the ACC, not likely unless the ACC gets raided again. So maybe in the 2030s. But possibly not even then.
07-29-2019 08:29 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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RE: Where will Oklahoma be in 2026?
(07-29-2019 08:29 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-29-2019 08:24 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 10:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There are polls for the only two that really matter—the rest would be overkill.

TTU, Ok St, and Kansas all have a shot at hitching themselves to a Sooner or Longhorn wagon. The rest will be in the Big 12.

Don't forget that WVU has eastern options

If you mean the ACC, not likely unless the ACC gets raided again. So maybe in the 2030s. But possibly not even then.

Not really if the SEC and B1G go to 16 with XII teams. The ACC would definitely look to add at least 1 school and hope ND jumps on board.
07-29-2019 08:55 PM
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