RE: The 12th member of the AAC will be?
I voted none, for the next few years anyway. I actually think the AAC may compromise with UConn and let their football stay on the schedule as a counting non-conference opponent (receiving exactly $0 in revenue and distributions) for 2020 at least (2021 less likely) -- this is what the Big Sky did with North Dakota for 2018 and 2019 football seasons. Partly I think they'll do this to kick the can down the road a year or two before applying for a waiver or getting a vote to allow them to ditch divisions, as a decent chunk of their TV deal with ESPN requires a CCG. Neither the American nor ESPN wants to be rushed into making a decision.
That said not all candidates are equal. Below numbers are from the Equity in Athletics (US Department of Education) report all schools are required to submit annually (the Academies don't, so no clue on their budgets).
First we can eliminate the schools well below the desired budget of $45M/year or more (based off equity in Athletics report, where 10 of the AAC schools had athletic budgets north of $48M ... (Tulsa and ECU lagged, but at least Tulsa FB and MBB were withing the league norm)
These schools are all below $40M and for all intents and purposes out of the running, just on resources.
Tier-4 schools below $40M: UMass, UNT, FIU, Wyoming, Miami U, Texas State, SJSU+
Tier-5 schools below $35M: USU, UAB, MTSU, Akron, Buffalo, Boise State*, Charlotte, Georgia State, CMich, WMich, ULL, Troy, EMich, Marshall
Tier-6 schools below $30M: Kent, Ohio U, Toledo, CCU, Ball State, FAU, UTEP, App State, WKU, USA, NIU
Tier-7 schools below $25M: NMSU, BGSU, USM, Louisiana Tech,
Tier-8 schools below $20M: Georgia Southern, Arkansas State, ULM
+ SJSU has upper 50 percentile of G5 budget and resources, just poorly managed, lack investment in Olympics, facilities.
* Boise State surprised me. But then again they operate very efficiently with a very low (for G5) subsidy percentage.
Just looking at the resources required I get a very short list:
Tier 1: BYU, CSU
-- Army and Air Force we'll call tier 1/2
Tier 2: SDSU, Fresno State
-- total budget is tier 1, but short in FB and/or MB.
Tier 3: Hawaii, Rice, UNLV, Nevada, ODU, New Mexico, Liberty
-- Liberty is a non starter
-- only Rice has close to sufficient MBB and FB budgets
When you take geography into account (San Diego State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico), and boot Liberty as problematic for the AAC to consider, the list pars down to:
BYU, Colorado State, Army, Air Force, Rice, ODU
BYU is too locked into it's Independent schedule for the next 4-5 years to move (too many costly buyouts required) and it makes much more sense for them to wait until 2025 to see if they can get in the B12. The MWC schools will similarly want to wait out the B12 realignment to see where things stand -- their TV contract will be designed to get them to 2025 only. Colorado State has a good chance at the B12 (if you go by resource level a very good chance). Army was in C-USA and did not like it, and are enjoying a successful run as an Independent.
When you cut through that, only two schools have the resources (when factoring in $4-5M more per year in revenue form the American) and willingness to join immediately; Rice and Old Dominion. But neither work for the American.
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The 12th member of the AAC will be?
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