RE: Official SoCon Tournament Thread (non-ETSU games)
The top 4 teams have been more dominant this year than in any recent year. There has been only one (1) upset of a top 4 team by a bottom 6 team all year: that was a 75-73 upset by Samford at Furman on January 26th when freshman Robert Allen hit an unlikely 3 at the buzzer. And that was avenged by Furman's 90-81 win on February 28th at Samford. The bottom 6 includes some pretty darn good teams, but the top 4 have just been better. So far.
There have been several other close calls, including overtime games by ETSU versus Samford and Mercer, but no other upsets. Assuming the top teams take care of business, who wins?
In the top 4, it's undefeated Wofford's tournament to lose. The best Wofford team ever, ranked 20th by Kenpom, with the usual great shooting (2nd in D1 in 3 point percentage at .418, 4th in made 3's per game at 11.2 for a 15th in points per game 83.0), and disciplined passing (although ETSU and Furman outdo them in assists, 15.9 to 15.6). It's no wonder that Kenpom rates them an amazing 8th in D1 in overall offense!!! Those offensive numbers have just shot up in conference. But they also have very unusual physicality, size and depth up front for a 20th in the country +6.1 rebounding margin (still behind the top ranked Bucs).
UNCG is next at 15-3, but... Kenpom rates them 85th, below two 13-5 teams, Furman at 52nd and ETSU (which is 0-2 against the Spartans) at 66th. UNCG matches up badly against Wofford, which has an offense that they cannot handle, losing 72-43 (29 points) and 80-50 (30 points). Barring a first round upset, their road to the championship lies through Furman. They won by 10 at home against the Paladins, but lost by 20 on the road on February 14th. Beating the Paladins will not be easy. James Dickey has not had his usual dominant year. Francis Alonso has been a little more mortal than usual. As I've said before, Isaiah Miller is now the go to guy down the stretch. Their defense has stepped up again, and was able to throttle ETSU in the last 5 minutes. They could use the tournament offensive outburst that senior Demetrius Troy put on last year, doubling his points per games on awesome 3 point shooting. They're still 2nd in the conference. But I don't think that they'll get past Furman this year. If they do beat the 'Dins, they'd better hope that their opponent in the final is ETSU and not the Terriers. They should expect a tough game from the Bucs, but Wofford would be likely to dominate.
When Lyons is hot outside, to go with Matt Rafferty's inside dominance, Furman is a very tough out. These guys are solid, but not overwhelming physically. They need to be playing a solid team game to win. Which they have been doing, going on an 8-1 streak with the only loss coming to Wofford. Their defense has made major improvements, now ranking 36th in D1 according to Kenpom, and tops in the SoCon. They gave Wofford two awfully tough games, losing by 5 at home, and by 8 at Wofford. They'd have a shot in the championship game. And at least a 50-50 chance of getting there by beating UNCG. Wofford doesn't want to see them coming. But ETSU probably thinks that a matchup against Furman would be a little more favorable than UNCG.
ETSU is a team that nobody really wants to face. Lots of weapons, size and athleticism. But Patrick Good, who is a stunning offensive force when healthy, has been subpar physically down the stretch. Wofford in overtime (led by seniors Magee and Cam Jackson), and UNCG in the last two minutes were able to get the stops and make just enough scores. But that could easily go the other way in the tournament. If the defense and grit are there, and especially if both Boyd and Good are hitting, this Bucs team could win the best SoCon competition in a long time.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2019 12:05 PM by swvabucsfan.)
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