Discuss the league tournament match-ups and results here for games where ETSU is not involved.
Date: March 8th-11th, 2019
Place: US Cellular Center
Broadcast: ESPN+, ESPN (finals)
Tournament
Bracket
(03-04-2019 04:41 PM)ETSUfan1 Wrote: [ -> ]Discuss the league tournament match-ups and results here for games where ETSU is not involved.
Date: March 8th-11th, 2019
Place: US Cellular Center
Broadcast: ESPN+, ESPN (finals)
Tournament Bracket
Friday games -
VMI vs. Western Carolina - The Keydets come in with three straight wins, which is not only their longest winning streak of the year but the first time this year they have won consecutive games against D1 teams. Their earlier two game winning streaks each included one non D1 win. WCU, on the other hand, comes in with a three game losing streak and hasn't had any winning streaks all year. They have one victory since Feb. 1st. VMI also owns victories in both games between the teams this year. Both games were close, high scoring, and notable for WCU's inability to cover Bubba Parham of the Keydets. He scored a career high 38 in one game and 33 in the other.
Prediction - VMI in another close one. WCU hasn't shown yet that they can cover Parham and that could be the difference for a team that is probably feeling confident.
The Citadel vs. Samford - The teams traded home court wins in two very tight games - Samford by 4 and the Citadel by 3 in OT. Key players? Maybe Lew Stallworth and Zane Najdawi for the Citadel. They combined for 21 points in the Bulldog's loss and 47 in the loss. Samford was a clear fifth place in the conference in regards to their power ratings but lost twice to Mercer for the tiebreaker and fell to 7th place in the seedings
Prediction - Samford should have the talent edge and win.
The top 4 teams have been more dominant this year than in any recent year. There has been only one (1) upset of a top 4 team by a bottom 6 team all year: that was a 75-73 upset by Samford at Furman on January 26th when freshman Robert Allen hit an unlikely 3 at the buzzer. And that was avenged by Furman's 90-81 win on February 28th at Samford. The bottom 6 includes some pretty darn good teams, but the top 4 have just been better. So far.
There have been several other close calls, including overtime games by ETSU versus Samford and Mercer, but no other upsets. Assuming the top teams take care of business, who wins?
In the top 4, it's undefeated Wofford's tournament to lose. The best Wofford team ever, ranked 20th by Kenpom, with the usual great shooting (2nd in D1 in 3 point percentage at .418, 4th in made 3's per game at 11.2 for a 15th in points per game 83.0), and disciplined passing (although ETSU and Furman outdo them in assists, 15.9 to 15.6). It's no wonder that Kenpom rates them an amazing 8th in D1 in overall offense!!! Those offensive numbers have just shot up in conference. But they also have very unusual physicality, size and depth up front for a 20th in the country +6.1 rebounding margin (still behind the top ranked Bucs).
UNCG is next at 15-3, but... Kenpom rates them 85th, below two 13-5 teams, Furman at 52nd and ETSU (which is 0-2 against the Spartans) at 66th. UNCG matches up badly against Wofford, which has an offense that they cannot handle, losing 72-43 (29 points) and 80-50 (30 points). Barring a first round upset, their road to the championship lies through Furman. They won by 10 at home against the Paladins, but lost by 20 on the road on February 14th. Beating the Paladins will not be easy. James Dickey has not had his usual dominant year. Francis Alonso has been a little more mortal than usual. As I've said before, Isaiah Miller is now the go to guy down the stretch. Their defense has stepped up again, and was able to throttle ETSU in the last 5 minutes. They could use the tournament offensive outburst that senior Demetrius Troy put on last year, doubling his points per games on awesome 3 point shooting. They're still 2nd in the conference. But I don't think that they'll get past Furman this year. If they do beat the 'Dins, they'd better hope that their opponent in the final is ETSU and not the Terriers. They should expect a tough game from the Bucs, but Wofford would be likely to dominate.
When Lyons is hot outside, to go with Matt Rafferty's inside dominance, Furman is a very tough out. These guys are solid, but not overwhelming physically. They need to be playing a solid team game to win. Which they have been doing, going on an 8-1 streak with the only loss coming to Wofford. Their defense has made major improvements, now ranking 36th in D1 according to Kenpom, and tops in the SoCon. They gave Wofford two awfully tough games, losing by 5 at home, and by 8 at Wofford. They'd have a shot in the championship game. And at least a 50-50 chance of getting there by beating UNCG. Wofford doesn't want to see them coming. But ETSU probably thinks that a matchup against Furman would be a little more favorable than UNCG.
ETSU is a team that nobody really wants to face. Lots of weapons, size and athleticism. But Patrick Good, who is a stunning offensive force when healthy, has been subpar physically down the stretch. Wofford in overtime (led by seniors Magee and Cam Jackson), and UNCG in the last two minutes were able to get the stops and make just enough scores. But that could easily go the other way in the tournament. If the defense and grit are there, and especially if both Boyd and Good are hitting, this Bucs team could win the best SoCon competition in a long time.
Karl Hess sighting at the first game of the tournament. Western vs. VMI
Interesting Citadel Samford game. Samford outscored Citadel 21-2 at the free throw line.
Citadel 2 for 5
Samford 21 for 25
Saturday's games -
Wofford vs. VMI - The Keydets have won four in a row and they were impressive against Western Carolina, especially Bubba Parham and his 41 point outburst. Can he do it again? VMI will need a similar performance against the Terriers. Dotson had a big 27 point, 13 rebound game to keep the Catamounts in the game Friday night. The problem for VMI is that Wofford is much deeper inside than WCU and their shooting is better.
This could be a surprisingly close contest if VMI gets similar shooting from Parham. VMI could get a quick early start but ultimately the fresher, deeper Terriers should prevail. If VMI isn't shooting well early it could turn into a blowout.
ETSU vs. Chattanooga - Chattanooga finished in 5th place by winning 7 of 10 games against team not in the top 4. They lost every game against the top 4 teams by at least 11 points. They were at the bottom in scoring and near the bottom in several defensive categories.
Chattanooga has a young team with promise for the future, but this is the present. This looks like another double digit loss to a top 4 team.
UNCG vs. Samford - Probably the biggest upset possibility of the quarterfinals. Both earlier games between these two were winnable for Samford but UNCG prevailed. In the first game, at Samford, the Bulldogs lead for the first 30 minutes - by as much as 14 points - but were unable to hold the lead and the game was up for grabs for either team after that. It was tied with barely a minute left when UNCG went on a literal last minute run. The second game was lead by UNCG most of the way until Samford came back and tied it with 4 minutes left. The Spartans again won with a late game burst. Stats are close for both teams. UNCG has a clear advantage in turnover margin (#1 in the SoCon) and Samford is a better three point shooting team (#3 to UNCG's #10.)
Samford played in seven overtime games including five in SoCon play. Another one wouldn't be surprising. Samford looked strong Friday night but I'll predict UNCG by 2.
Furman vs. Mercer - Furman won the regular season games by 13 and 11 points, although Mercer changed their tactics somewhat from the first game to the second. In the first game they played Matt Rafferty straight up and he went for 19 points and 10 rebounds. The second time they double teamed him more and were more aggressive and he got into some foul trouble. They played their big guys more minutes. That opened up more room for others. Lyons, Mounce, and Brown combined for 48 points in the second game after scoring 23 the first game. Furman clearly outshot Mercer in both games.
With a week to prepare Mercer may have a new wrinkle in store Saturday. The game will probably come down to shooting again. If Furman can defend the perimeter well again the Paladins should advance.
Nice report, but what did you think of Purple Thunder this year? Musicianship was good, but the music they played over the loudspeaker was lame, imo.
FWIW, the Kenpom odds:
- UNCG over Samford by 4 (74-70, 64% chance of winning)
- Furman over Mercer by 11 (73-62, 83% chance of winning)
- ETSU over Chattanooga by 13 (76-63, 87% chance of winning)
- Wofford over VMI by 21(87-66, 97% chance of winning)
Samford, which has taken Wofford and ETSU to overtime, come within 2 of Furman and played UNCG tough both times is probably the best shot at an upset. With Wofford focused and firing on all cylinders offensively I don't see VMI having much chance. But any of these teams is good enough to knock off a favorite if they snooze. The Bucs especially have a bad habit of building a lead and then relaxing.
Take care of business.
Sorry to hear that the Purple Thunder drum line was sub par. We'll miss them anyway with the Catamounts already out. They've been my favorite musical entertainment in Asheville.
(03-09-2019 07:37 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry to hear that the Purple Thunder drum line was sub par. We'll miss them anyway with the Catamounts already out. They've been my favorite musical entertainment in Asheville.
I think Purple Thunder was quite impressive
per se. It's just that the music they played for an accompaniment (Michael Jackson?) was both ill-fitting, and to be honest, probably "inappropriate".
(03-09-2019 12:10 PM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote: [ -> ] (03-09-2019 07:37 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry to hear that the Purple Thunder drum line was sub par. We'll miss them anyway with the Catamounts already out. They've been my favorite musical entertainment in Asheville.
I think Purple Thunder was quite impressive per se. It's just that the music they played for an accompaniment (Michael Jackson?) was both ill-fitting, and to be honest, probably "inappropriate".
First half Wofford absolutely thrashing Keydets
This place is about packed. Wofford must’ve got every fan they have to attend. Their fans are showing well. IF we win today, fans better get here early tomorrow if they want a seat.
Wofford confident and aggressive. Kept foot on the gas and never let VMI back in it. Good fan support.
Wofford is scary. That is all.
Wofford’s going all the way, tbh
(03-09-2019 01:55 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote: [ -> ]Wofford confident and aggressive. Kept foot on the gas and never let VMI back in it. Good fan support.
Their ball movement and spacing is just....so......precise, crisp, and efficient. ACC quality. I think I made that point one other time....
Samford looking poised to pull the upset of the tournament
(03-09-2019 06:49 PM)Bucs06 Wrote: [ -> ]Samford looking poised to pull the upset of the tournament
Gave it a good try but looks like UNC-g is going to take it
For all the good Sharkey does he eliminates it with bone head decisions
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Our nemesis survives. Samford blows the lead.
(03-09-2019 06:49 PM)Bucs06 Wrote: [ -> ]Samford looking poised to pull the upset of the tournament
Well, this didn’t age well