(01-25-2019 11:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:41 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I would hardly call the gap between the A10 and the MVC as being head and shoulders above.

right now in Ken Pom-
gap between A10 and MAC- 2.63
gap between A10 and MVC- 1.76

The A10 is in a historical down year, they really need some teams to dominate conference play to get multiple bids. The pedigree is there though.

The conference still managed a better TV deal with ESPN and a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West.

It's really not a historical down year-
2019 94-83 .5311
2018 90-82 .5233

Also, the conference has gotten hurt by the NET/RPI for the top teams
Saint Louis 71 NET/62 RPI
Davidson 68 NET/44 RPI
VCU 57 NET/36 RPI

Also, the A10 TV deal only runs 2 more years after this. Considering the deal was signed in 2012, while Xavier and Butler were in the conference- not sure if there will be a huge bump at all for them.

Okay, a historical down period, but the pedigree is there and that's what is important.

I'm referring to the new deal signed in 2018 to get the A10 on ESPN streaming platforms. That is huge for the conference, before it was next to impossible to access A10 games from anywhere in the country.

The Pedigree might be in the conference name, but that's it. It's not a good conference. They were really hurt by the Big East/AAC split, and it's just starting to show. Instead of 16 teams in a conference ahead of them, it's now 22. They're going to have to work to get back to being even #8 and getting back ahead of the MAC and WCC even.

(01-25-2019 11:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 10:52 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Separately, I think VCU actually fits a lot better in the AAC as an institution than Wichita State if the league is looking for other potential non-football members.

Definitely agree with you on VCU/AAC. I think if UConn were to go Big East, VCU would get added to the AAC as their replacement quickly.

If UConn left the American that would leave 11 football playing members. I'm not sure how that would be handled; there is no realistic option for another football-only addition.

I do agree VCU fits in the American mold. Other considerations: Old Dominion gets the league in VA and offers a football program for 12. UMass gets the league back in New England. There sure are a lot of teams out west, how would that affect the voting process?

If both UConn and Navy leave, I could definitely see VCU only, that is if the American prefers 12 over 11 (and a round robin) for hoops.

(01-25-2019 11:17 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  As far as Florida Gulf Coast- don't really see it. They're not going from Atlantic Sun to the AAC, and the AAC is the only natural fit quite frankly. I don't know what their next step up would be quite frankly- you look at the map and it's not pretty for them.

That is what is challenging for me because FGCU has all of the earmarks of a school that should be playing in a much better conference and it's not about "fairness" but rather it can legitimately make sense financially. There are some schools that aren't playing in a better conference because of a lack of a good market, which is how conference realignment works (whether it's fair or not). The thing is that FGCU *does* have a good market and one that is very fast-growing with little competition. Now, I know that the geographic map superficially doesn't look great, but that belies the fact that the air connections to Fort Myers are actually very good considering its size. Geography doesn't matter for the Miami area schools because of the inherent value of being in that market and I can envision FGCU being the smaller Gulf Coast version of that.

Timing matters.

FGCU makes its Sweet 16 run two or three years earlier, and doesn't have the two year appearance gap, they might well be in CUSA or more likely Sun Belt (who ended up taking Texas-Arlington) right now because they would have been on radar at a time when the leagues were looking to add members.

With 14 in CUSA and 12 in Sun Belt, FGCU (now with three NCAA appearances 2013 to present) neither is looking to add, the A10 is at 14, the Colonial is at 10 and FGCU probably looks better to the Colonial if Georgia State doesn't leave.

(01-25-2019 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:41 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I would hardly call the gap between the A10 and the MVC as being head and shoulders above.

right now in Ken Pom-
gap between A10 and MAC- 2.63
gap between A10 and MVC- 1.76

The A10 is in a historical down year, they really need some teams to dominate conference play to get multiple bids. The pedigree is there though.

The conference still managed a better TV deal with ESPN and a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West.

It's really not a historical down year-
2019 94-83 .5311
2018 90-82 .5233

Also, the conference has gotten hurt by the NET/RPI for the top teams
Saint Louis 71 NET/62 RPI
Davidson 68 NET/44 RPI
VCU 57 NET/36 RPI

Also, the A10 TV deal only runs 2 more years after this. Considering the deal was signed in 2012, while Xavier and Butler were in the conference- not sure if there will be a huge bump at all for them.

Okay, a historical down period, but the pedigree is there and that's what is important.

I'm referring to the new deal signed in 2018 to get the A10 on ESPN streaming platforms. That is huge for the conference, before it was next to impossible to access A10 games from anywhere in the country.

The Pedigree might be in the conference name, but that's it. It's not a good conference. They were really hurt by the Big East/AAC split, and it's just starting to show. Instead of 16 teams in a conference ahead of them, it's now 22. They're going to have to work to get back to being even #8 and getting back ahead of the MAC and WCC even.

Losing Temple and Xavier hurt. Losing Butler hurt, but hardly mattered as they were a member for two seconds. Losing Charlotte was a blessing.

The VCU addition was solid, and I'm not sure what to make of George Mason. That was a head-scratcher.

The A10 has a solid core that is underperforming this year, but other teams have stepped up. We'll see come tournament time.

(01-25-2019 11:32 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 10:52 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Separately, I think VCU actually fits a lot better in the AAC as an institution than Wichita State if the league is looking for other potential non-football members.

Definitely agree with you on VCU/AAC. I think if UConn were to go Big East, VCU would get added to the AAC as their replacement quickly.

If UConn left the American that would leave 11 football playing members. I'm not sure how that would be handled; there is no realistic option for another football-only addition.

I do agree VCU fits in the American mold. Other considerations: Old Dominion gets the league in VA and offers a football program for 12. UMass gets the league back in New England. There sure are a lot of teams out west, how would that affect the voting process?

If both UConn and Navy leave, I could definitely see VCU only, that is if the American prefers 12 over 11 (and a round robin) for hoops.

Definitely think they go back to 12 for hoops. One thing that has helped their SOS last year and this is having 12 and being able to avoid top teams playing ECU and Tulane 2x.

(01-25-2019 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-24-2019 02:41 PM)esayem Wrote:  The A10 is in a historical down year, they really need some teams to dominate conference play to get multiple bids. The pedigree is there though.

The conference still managed a better TV deal with ESPN and a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West.

It's really not a historical down year-
2019 94-83 .5311
2018 90-82 .5233

Also, the conference has gotten hurt by the NET/RPI for the top teams
Saint Louis 71 NET/62 RPI
Davidson 68 NET/44 RPI
VCU 57 NET/36 RPI

Also, the A10 TV deal only runs 2 more years after this. Considering the deal was signed in 2012, while Xavier and Butler were in the conference- not sure if there will be a huge bump at all for them.

Okay, a historical down period, but the pedigree is there and that's what is important.

I'm referring to the new deal signed in 2018 to get the A10 on ESPN streaming platforms. That is huge for the conference, before it was next to impossible to access A10 games from anywhere in the country.

The Pedigree might be in the conference name, but that's it. It's not a good conference. They were really hurt by the Big East/AAC split, and it's just starting to show. Instead of 16 teams in a conference ahead of them, it's now 22. They're going to have to work to get back to being even #8 and getting back ahead of the MAC and WCC even.

Losing Temple and Xavier hurt. Losing Butler hurt, but hardly mattered as they were a member for two seconds. Losing Charlotte was a blessing.

The VCU addition was solid, and I'm not sure what to make of George Mason. That was a head-scratcher.

The A10 has a solid core that is underperforming this year, but other teams have stepped up. We'll see come tournament time.

odds very good that the A10 is a 1 bid only league this year. VCU has a shot, but they might be able to lose only 1 more game prior to losing in the A10 final to have any shot- they'd be 26-8 at that point. I don't know.

The A10's problem is that they money wise just aren't at the same level as the AAC or Big East or P5 conferences. So coaches are going to continuously get poached, a la Miller from Dayton and Hurley from Rhode Island. Or prior Smart from VCU.

(01-25-2019 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  The VCU addition was solid, and I'm not sure what to make of George Mason. That was a head-scratcher.

The A10 has a solid core that is underperforming this year, but other teams have stepped up. We'll see come tournament time.

The Virginia schools are kind of tight. They supposedly like (or used to like) being together in some fashion. I believe Mason was to help VCU, and it helped that Mason had success and resided in a metropolitan area.

But they are a flop.

Strangely, I thought Davidson was the bigger risk, given the gap between SoCon and A10. Nope...solid and competitive ever since.

I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

(01-25-2019 12:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  The VCU addition was solid, and I'm not sure what to make of George Mason. That was a head-scratcher.

The A10 has a solid core that is underperforming this year, but other teams have stepped up. We'll see come tournament time.

The Virginia schools are kind of tight. They supposedly like (or used to like) being together in some fashion. I believe Mason was to help VCU, and it helped that Mason had success and resided in a metropolitan area.

But they are a flop.

Strangely, I thought Davidson was the bigger risk, given the gap between SoCon and A10. Nope...solid and competitive ever since.

I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

Davidson basically skipped a level going there but has worked pretty well I’d say

(01-26-2019 08:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 12:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 11:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  The VCU addition was solid, and I'm not sure what to make of George Mason. That was a head-scratcher.

The A10 has a solid core that is underperforming this year, but other teams have stepped up. We'll see come tournament time.

The Virginia schools are kind of tight. They supposedly like (or used to like) being together in some fashion. I believe Mason was to help VCU, and it helped that Mason had success and resided in a metropolitan area.

But they are a flop.

Strangely, I thought Davidson was the bigger risk, given the gap between SoCon and A10. Nope...solid and competitive ever since.

I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

Davidson basically skipped a level going there but has worked pretty well I’d say

Davidson had a lot of success in the 60s and 70s. So there was a solid base. 3 times they were one game short of the final 4. They've made the tourney 14 times.

(01-25-2019 12:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

Honestly? If the A10 loses some schools they don't have much business making new additions unless they got down below 10 members, and the only way I could see that possibly happening is if you had something occur like Dayton/SLU to the Big East, Fordham waiving the white flag and joining the Patriot as a full member of Ivy-lite, and UMass and one of URI or VCU to the AAC (or, theoretically, all three of them I suppose). That's fanciful to say the least. Otherwise? Just let the defections give your current membership a little room to breathe and a shot at the league title, like how the Big East split helped create an environment that's contributed to Providence and Seton Hall both going through their best stretches in a while.

(01-26-2019 09:35 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 12:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

Honestly? If the A10 loses some schools they don't have much business making new additions unless they got down below 10 members, and the only way I could see that possibly happening is if you had something occur like Dayton/SLU to the Big East, Fordham waiving the white flag and joining the Patriot as a full member of Ivy-lite, and UMass and one of URI or VCU to the AAC (or, theoretically, all three of them I suppose). That's fanciful to say the least. Otherwise? Just let the defections give your current membership a little room to breathe and a shot at the league title, like how the Big East split helped create an environment that's contributed to Providence and Seton Hall both going through their best stretches in a while.

I hope the majority of the schools feel that way and not weak to make a knee-jerk pickup. I agree; the conference doesn’t need to be that big, but, that it’s been a consistent multi-bid conference, who’s to say it doesn’t have its benefits?

No love for Richmond out there anymore?

(01-27-2019 10:52 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  No love for Richmond out there anymore?

I think one of the major problems with Richmond, VCU, and Davidson is that they're solidly in ACC-land and they're also solidly a tier or two below the ACC teams in their respective states. The optics on that would be tough, which is one of the reasons I think SLU or Dayton would be more appealing (and with UConn obviously ideal).

(01-27-2019 12:35 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(01-27-2019 10:52 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  No love for Richmond out there anymore?

I think one of the major problems with Richmond, VCU, and Davidson is that they're solidly in ACC-land and they're also solidly a tier or two below the ACC teams in their respective states. The optics on that would be tough, which is one of the reasons I think SLU or Dayton would be more appealing (and with UConn obviously ideal).

I think especially with Richmond is that they're clearly behind VCU in their own market.

(01-27-2019 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-27-2019 12:35 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(01-27-2019 10:52 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  No love for Richmond out there anymore?

I think one of the major problems with Richmond, VCU, and Davidson is that they're solidly in ACC-land and they're also solidly a tier or two below the ACC teams in their respective states. The optics on that would be tough, which is one of the reasons I think SLU or Dayton would be more appealing (and with UConn obviously ideal).

I think especially with Richmond is that they're clearly behind VCU in their own market.

Yeah. And, really, VCU shows it can be good with more than just one coach. Richmond’s still using the guy who gave some of us the warm and fuzzies about their ceiling some time back, and that well is running near dry now.

If you pick a school from that city, pick the right one. It’s not the Spiders.

It’s a shame the conference seems to want no parts of public schools beyond UConn. Like, if you couldn’t get the Huskies back, or even if you could, you have VCU and Wichita that can still play top level and bring rabid fans who will show up for their schools.

If I recall, and from what I have heard, Georgetown was actually pushing against adding Richmond. If Georgetown is against their add, they have a slim-to-none chance of ever getting an invitation.

(01-26-2019 09:35 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(01-25-2019 12:09 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I'd be worried what a future leave could do to the A10. That's when you hear the Siena's, Hofstra's, and Detroit's being dropped. It's not a safe feeling as a fan of the conference. Nor are some of the public schools who get traction, like CoC or UNCW.

Honestly? If the A10 loses some schools they don't have much business making new additions unless they got down below 10 members, and the only way I could see that possibly happening is if you had something occur like Dayton/SLU to the Big East, Fordham waiving the white flag and joining the Patriot as a full member of Ivy-lite, and UMass and one of URI or VCU to the AAC (or, theoretically, all three of them I suppose). That's fanciful to say the least. Otherwise? Just let the defections give your current membership a little room to breathe and a shot at the league title, like how the Big East split helped create an environment that's contributed to Providence and Seton Hall both going through their best stretches in a while.

I'm glad someone shares my AAC vision. UMass, URI, and VCU would all be great adds.

Is there anything on the record that indicates the Big East is even remotely interested in UConn aside from anonymous sources? The Big East built itself on culture, it doesn't want publics. And why would UConn want to play with a bunch of small catholic schools, many of which they have no historical or geographic ties to? It doesn't make an ounce of sense. The media loves this stuff because fans eat it up. This is all nostalgia and fan fiction.

Grape King,

Well who else was the Big East Commissioner (obliquely) talking about when he mentioned 11 round robin and expansion?

UConn already plays Field Hockey and Women's Lacrosse in the Big East. I look at his comment as a clear message, "you have my number, call when you are ready; you might like the answer." But I think that is all it means. The Big East and UConn talk from time to time, and back channels is where any real discussions go on, not public. You are never going to get anything other than anonymous sources in things like this, until it gets halfway serious, and even then only if your name is Craig Thompson and you cannot help yourself but to say the MWC is talking to Gonzaga. Nobody else ever puts their business in public. So it's leaks, and over and over they point to UConn.

But ask yourself who else could possibly be of interest? Who else would make a big splash? A short list comes to mind: Notre Dame, Syracuse, BC, Gonzaga, UConn. Notre Dame, Syracuse and BC made their affiliation with the ACC because of Football, so they are off the table. Gonzaga is in the wrong time zone. Process of elimination leaves only UConn as bringing enough to not only justify, but to make desirable an 11th school.

We can discount the A-10 group of schools mentioned, as just not big splash marquee candidates. Nothing wrong with Richmond (very selective school, huge financial strength), VCU (excellent research institution, although selectivity and undergrad rating are not great), Dayton (good fan base, academics middle of the pack in the Big East), Saint Louis (selective school) and Davidson (Stanford/Duke level selectivity; but a bit of a boutique choice). But nobody thinks any of these are more than a complimentary school, a "12th" if you will.

There really isn't another candidate. It's UConn or nobody for the Big East.

(01-27-2019 08:54 PM)The Grape King Wrote:  And why would UConn want to play with a bunch of small catholic schools, many of which they have no historical or geographic ties to? It doesn't make an ounce of sense.

And here I thought being a founding member meant something...

(01-28-2019 02:46 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Grape King,

Well who else was the Big East Commissioner (obliquely) talking about when he mentioned 11 round robin and expansion?

UConn already plays Field Hockey and Women's Lacrosse in the Big East. I look at his comment as a clear message, "you have my number, call when you are ready; you might like the answer." But I think that is all it means. The Big East and UConn talk from time to time, and back channels is where any real discussions go on, not public. You are never going to get anything other than anonymous sources in things like this, until it gets halfway serious, and even then only if your name is Craig Thompson and you cannot help yourself but to say the MWC is talking to Gonzaga. Nobody else ever puts their business in public. So it's leaks, and over and over they point to UConn.

But ask yourself who else could possibly be of interest? Who else would make a big splash? A short list comes to mind: Notre Dame, Syracuse, BC, Gonzaga, UConn. Notre Dame, Syracuse and BC made their affiliation with the ACC because of Football, so they are off the table. Gonzaga is in the wrong time zone. Process of elimination leaves only UConn as bringing enough to not only justify, but to make desirable an 11th school.

We can discount the A-10 group of schools mentioned, as just not big splash marquee candidates. Nothing wrong with Richmond (very selective school, huge financial strength), VCU (excellent research institution, although selectivity and undergrad rating are not great), Dayton (good fan base, academics middle of the pack in the Big East), Saint Louis (selective school) and Davidson (Stanford/Duke level selectivity; but a bit of a boutique choice). But nobody thinks any of these are more than a complimentary school, a "12th" if you will.

There really isn't another candidate. It's UConn or nobody for the Big East.

Exactly. Like you said--they already share a conference for certain sports---so its not like they dont have a built-in direct channel for communication. My guess is UConn was better off in the AAC with the realignment fund payments--so staying was a no brainer in 2013. Now that calculus will be based on how the new AAC TV deal looks in comparison to the Big East deal. If the AAC gets a disappointing 2.5 million a team---I imagine UConn is gone. If it comes it where I expect or above---they are going nowhere.