(11-19-2018 01:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (11-19-2018 01:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
Naming two off the top of my head---NBC and CBS-Sports, for sure. I dont see FOX as a bidder.
I don't think NBC laying that much on the table for the AAC--the American is rough as stand-alone programming, which (except for Notre DAme) you would be. We've been over what being on FS1 instead of ESPN does to/for the Big East--I think the damage to the AAC would be worse.
And CBS-Sports is a low-budget operation all around. I don't think CBS-OTA is going to want to do AAC-SEC doubleheaders.
But, compared to last round, I think you provide more value to ESPN. 2 to 3 AAC games a week are "replacement level" games to P5 content. That wasn't 100% clear last go round.
Quote:There has been talk that Turner is interested....and of course, the major FANG streamers like Amazon or Twitter could be potential wild cards.
Yeah, we've heard that song and dance before.
Quote:Lets look at it from ESPN's stand point. This is not 2013 when they really didnt need the AAC and picked it up for a song just because they could. Since then, ESPN lost half of thier Big10 inventory. Next year, the ACC Network begins--and though it will largely be filled with inventory obtained from Raycom--I suspect a few games from the current ESPN inventory will be moved there to make the network more attracive during carriage negotiations. So, ESPN likely has even more slots they need AAC inventory to fill. Oh, and since 2013 the AAC has posted a MUCH better than expected record of TV ratings. If ESPN knows the AAC has wildly outperformed its 2 million a team price tag in the Nielson ratings----I suspect every other network knows that as well and will be very interested in picking up a great bang for the buck media property.
Most of that is true, but some is a little overhyped.
It's a great bang for the buck property--on ESPN/ABC. UCF vs Cincinnati as the prime time game of an OSU-Maryland, Oklahoma-West Virginia, UCF-Cincinnati triple header is solid. SMU-Memphis or Houston-Tulane as Thursday/Friday ESPN games fit nicely. Do they work as the lead-in to Notre Dame at 3 pm? I don't know.
Quote:Today, the AAC fills 32 slots a year on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU--almost half of those games were on ABC or ESPN. Currently, ESPN+ is seeking subscribers and would likely love to have a 10-15 game chunk of tier 3 AAC inventory to draw AAC fans as subscribers.
I'd expect the CBS-SN games to move to ESPN+, actually.
Quote:The AAC has significant value to ESPN, but the AAC would likely make more by splitting its inventory into packages letting NBC, ESPN, and CBS-Sports (along with whoever else) bid on these smaller packages. That's risky for ESPN, because they really need it all so they can pick and choose the best games for their linear networks---then decide what to sublicense to CBS-Sports Network--and finally slide the rest to ESPN+ to force ACC fans to buy ESPN+ subscriptions. If the packages are split---ESPN might not even win enough inventory to fill their 32 empty slots if they are too frugal with their bidding. My guess---the AAC never makes it to the open market and signs a deal worth 6-8 million per team during the final days of the exclusive negotiating period.
Agreed about signing with ESPN during the exclusive period. I'm not sure about the money. I'll revisit my old 2012 calculations (which were, at the time, considered apocalyptically pessimistic, but turned out to be optimistic) and see what I'd change. (I think I'd have to swap out Boise STate and Louisville and SDSU and Rutgers SNY sublicensing for Tulane, Tulsa, ECU and Wichita State.)