The American will soon begin contract negotations. 2018 was the final football season before the new deal will be hammered out with ESPN and/or others.
In 2014, ESPN agreed to televise a minimum of 28 American games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU, including at least 3 on ABC.
This year, ESPN will televise 37 American games and 7 on ABC.
It exceeded the minimum last year too, televising 32 total and 4 on ABC.
I think this bodes well for the American in the upcoming negotiations.
Originally, I had projected a deal worth $5-8M per team per year. I think it will probably end up closer to $8M than $5M.
(11-18-2018 11:59 AM)CougarRed Wrote: [ -> ]The American will soon begin contract negotations. 2018 was the final football season before the new deal will be hammered out with ESPN and/or others.
In 2014, ESPN agreed to televise a minimum of 28 American games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU, including at least 3 on ABC.
This year, ESPN will televise 37 American games and 7 on ABC.
It exceeded the minimum last year too, televising 32 total and 4 on ABC.
I think this bodes well for the American in the upcoming negotiations.
Originally, I had projected a deal worth $5-8M per team per year. I think it will probably end up closer to $8M than $5M.
I just don't see ESPN forking over $8 million a year for our inventory. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they do, but I'm not holding my breath. Not while the other leagues just use our league as a feeder for coaches and everyone (UCF included) has had their share of awful years and performances.
I would love to see another player get in the game and bid against ESPN for the rights. The top two games each week from the AAC would nicely complement FOX, NBC, or CBS's current line up.
I think you guys deserve $8M per team...the bottom of the league really hurts getting any more IMHO.
I'd place my bet on it being closer to $5M.
I doubt the muckety-mucks at the Mouse are going to want to spend any more than that HAVE to knowing the P5 rights will be up in a matter of years.
(11-19-2018 10:56 AM)TexanMark Wrote: [ -> ]I think you guys deserve $8M per team...the bottom of the league really hurts getting any more IMHO.
Well, that could certainly lead to a different outcome: conference tampering by TV to get the schools they actually want for ROI moved into the P5. Especially if that costs less than a substantial increase to every single member of the American.
There is precedent. Many suggest dissolution of the old Big East with Pitt and Syracuse going to the ACC had ESPN's fingerprints all over it.
Realistically with how everything is playing out, the two biggest factors for the AAC getting an increase in TV rights fees are:
(1) Whether there are other legitimately interested bidders; and/or
(2) ESPN's budget for ESPN+ and the AAC's willingness to put more games on that platform
ESPN+ is really where ESPN is justifying higher rights fees in the current environment because they're in startup growth mode. As a result, Disney is willing to pay extra to get exclusive content for ESPN+ and incur losses as of now. Linear network programming is where they're trying to contain costs. I think ESPN would be willing to pay a premium to get more AAC content on ESPN+ because it perfectly fits their model of that platform being heavily focused on fans of non-P5 college conferences. The AAC has less leverage with respect to linear platforms (at least in terms of pricing) - ESPN still has a lot of "replacement level" inventory that it can run on its linear networks, so that's not where their greatest need is as of now.
The above scenario seems more likely to me (ESPN paying a premium to get more ESPN+ content) than another bidder driving up the price.
with the accn starting up next august someone will get more games on espn 2, u and abc
(11-19-2018 11:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]Realistically with how everything is playing out, the two biggest factors for the AAC getting an increase in TV rights fees are:
(1) Whether there are other legitimately interested bidders; and/or
(2) ESPN's budget for ESPN+ and the AAC's willingness to put more games on that platform
ESPN+ is really where ESPN is justifying higher rights fees in the current environment because they're in startup growth mode. As a result, Disney is willing to pay extra to get exclusive content for ESPN+ and incur losses as of now. Linear network programming is where they're trying to contain costs. I think ESPN would be willing to pay a premium to get more AAC content on ESPN+ because it perfectly fits their model of that platform being heavily focused on fans of non-P5 college conferences. The AAC has less leverage with respect to linear platforms (at least in terms of pricing) - ESPN still has a lot of "replacement level" inventory that it can run on its linear networks, so that's not where their greatest need is as of now.
The above scenario seems more likely to me (ESPN paying a premium to get more ESPN+ content) than another bidder driving up the price.
Can you provide and example of ESPN attempting to contain cost on the linear side with respect to live sports rights contracts? The only place I’ve seen ESPN cut costs on the linear side is in studio staff and production staff. I can’t find a single example of ESPN doing much to contain costs on linear live sports rights. The closest I can come was an uncompetitive bid on the the first half of the Big10 rights. They still ended up paying 3X more per game for the 50% of the Big10 rights they actually retained (they paid 50% more for half the Big10 than they used to pay for all of it in the old contract).
Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
(11-19-2018 01:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
Naming two off the top of my head---NBC and CBS-Sports, for sure. I dont see FOX as a bidder. There has been talk that Turner is interested....and of course, the major FANG streamers like Amazon or Twitter could be potential wild cards.
Lets look at it from ESPN's stand point. This is not 2013 when they really didnt need the AAC and picked it up for a song just because they could. Since then, ESPN lost half of thier Big10 inventory. Next year, the ACC Network begins--and though it will largely be filled with inventory obtained from Raycom--I suspect a few games from the current ESPN inventory will be moved there to make the network more attracive during carriage negotiations. So, ESPN likely has even more slots they need AAC inventory to fill. Oh, and since 2013 the AAC has posted a MUCH better than expected record of TV ratings. If ESPN knows the AAC has wildly outperformed its 2 million a team price tag in the Nielson ratings----I suspect every other network knows that as well and will be very interested in picking up a great bang for the buck media property.
Today, the AAC fills 32 slots a year on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU--almost half of those games were on ABC or ESPN. Currently, ESPN+ is seeking subscribers and would likely love to have a 10-15 game chunk of tier 3 AAC inventory to draw AAC fans as subscribers.
The AAC has significant value to ESPN, but the AAC would likely make more by splitting its inventory into packages letting NBC, ESPN, and CBS-Sports (along with whoever else) bid on these smaller packages. That's risky for ESPN, because they really need it all so they can pick and choose the best games for their linear networks---then decide what to sublicense to CBS-Sports Network--and finally slide the rest to ESPN+ to force ACC fans to buy ESPN+ subscriptions. If the packages are split---ESPN might not even win enough inventory to fill their 32 empty slots if they are too frugal with their bidding. My guess---the AAC never makes it to the open market and signs a deal worth 6-8 million per team during the final days of the exclusive negotiating period.
When is the negotiating period?
(11-19-2018 01:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 01:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
Naming two off the top of my head---NBC and CBS-Sports, for sure. I dont see FOX as a bidder.
I don't think NBC laying that much on the table for the AAC--the American is rough as stand-alone programming, which (except for Notre DAme) you would be. We've been over what being on FS1 instead of ESPN does to/for the Big East--I think the damage to the AAC would be worse.
And CBS-Sports is a low-budget operation all around. I don't think CBS-OTA is going to want to do AAC-SEC doubleheaders.
But, compared to last round, I think you provide more value to ESPN. 2 to 3 AAC games a week are "replacement level" games to P5 content. That wasn't 100% clear last go round.
Quote:There has been talk that Turner is interested....and of course, the major FANG streamers like Amazon or Twitter could be potential wild cards.
Yeah, we've heard that song and dance before.
Quote:Lets look at it from ESPN's stand point. This is not 2013 when they really didnt need the AAC and picked it up for a song just because they could. Since then, ESPN lost half of thier Big10 inventory. Next year, the ACC Network begins--and though it will largely be filled with inventory obtained from Raycom--I suspect a few games from the current ESPN inventory will be moved there to make the network more attracive during carriage negotiations. So, ESPN likely has even more slots they need AAC inventory to fill. Oh, and since 2013 the AAC has posted a MUCH better than expected record of TV ratings. If ESPN knows the AAC has wildly outperformed its 2 million a team price tag in the Nielson ratings----I suspect every other network knows that as well and will be very interested in picking up a great bang for the buck media property.
Most of that is true, but some is a little overhyped.
It's a great bang for the buck property--on ESPN/ABC. UCF vs Cincinnati as the prime time game of an OSU-Maryland, Oklahoma-West Virginia, UCF-Cincinnati triple header is solid. SMU-Memphis or Houston-Tulane as Thursday/Friday ESPN games fit nicely. Do they work as the lead-in to Notre Dame at 3 pm? I don't know.
Quote:Today, the AAC fills 32 slots a year on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU--almost half of those games were on ABC or ESPN. Currently, ESPN+ is seeking subscribers and would likely love to have a 10-15 game chunk of tier 3 AAC inventory to draw AAC fans as subscribers.
I'd expect the CBS-SN games to move to ESPN+, actually.
Quote:The AAC has significant value to ESPN, but the AAC would likely make more by splitting its inventory into packages letting NBC, ESPN, and CBS-Sports (along with whoever else) bid on these smaller packages. That's risky for ESPN, because they really need it all so they can pick and choose the best games for their linear networks---then decide what to sublicense to CBS-Sports Network--and finally slide the rest to ESPN+ to force ACC fans to buy ESPN+ subscriptions. If the packages are split---ESPN might not even win enough inventory to fill their 32 empty slots if they are too frugal with their bidding. My guess---the AAC never makes it to the open market and signs a deal worth 6-8 million per team during the final days of the exclusive negotiating period.
Agreed about signing with ESPN during the exclusive period. I'm not sure about the money. I'll revisit my old 2012 calculations (which were, at the time, considered apocalyptically pessimistic, but turned out to be optimistic) and see what I'd change. (I think I'd have to swap out Boise STate and Louisville and SDSU and Rutgers SNY sublicensing for Tulane, Tulsa, ECU and Wichita State.)
(11-19-2018 02:20 PM)johnbragg Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 01:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 01:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
Naming two off the top of my head---NBC and CBS-Sports, for sure. I dont see FOX as a bidder.
I don't think NBC laying that much on the table for the AAC--the American is rough as stand-alone programming, which (except for Notre DAme) you would be. We've been over what being on FS1 instead of ESPN does to/for the Big East--I think the damage to the AAC would be worse.
And CBS-Sports is a low-budget operation all around. I don't think CBS-OTA is going to want to do AAC-SEC doubleheaders.
But, compared to last round, I think you provide more value to ESPN. 2 to 3 AAC games a week are "replacement level" games to P5 content. That wasn't 100% clear last go round.
Quote:There has been talk that Turner is interested....and of course, the major FANG streamers like Amazon or Twitter could be potential wild cards.
Yeah, we've heard that song and dance before.
Quote:Lets look at it from ESPN's stand point. This is not 2013 when they really didnt need the AAC and picked it up for a song just because they could. Since then, ESPN lost half of thier Big10 inventory. Next year, the ACC Network begins--and though it will largely be filled with inventory obtained from Raycom--I suspect a few games from the current ESPN inventory will be moved there to make the network more attracive during carriage negotiations. So, ESPN likely has even more slots they need AAC inventory to fill. Oh, and since 2013 the AAC has posted a MUCH better than expected record of TV ratings. If ESPN knows the AAC has wildly outperformed its 2 million a team price tag in the Nielson ratings----I suspect every other network knows that as well and will be very interested in picking up a great bang for the buck media property.
Most of that is true, but some is a little overhyped.
It's a great bang for the buck property--on ESPN/ABC. UCF vs Cincinnati as the prime time game of an OSU-Maryland, Oklahoma-West Virginia, UCF-Cincinnati triple header is solid. SMU-Memphis or Houston-Tulane as Thursday/Friday ESPN games fit nicely. Do they work as the lead-in to Notre Dame at 3 pm? I don't know.
Quote:Today, the AAC fills 32 slots a year on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU--almost half of those games were on ABC or ESPN. Currently, ESPN+ is seeking subscribers and would likely love to have a 10-15 game chunk of tier 3 AAC inventory to draw AAC fans as subscribers.
I'd expect the CBS-SN games to move to ESPN+, actually.
Quote:The AAC has significant value to ESPN, but the AAC would likely make more by splitting its inventory into packages letting NBC, ESPN, and CBS-Sports (along with whoever else) bid on these smaller packages. That's risky for ESPN, because they really need it all so they can pick and choose the best games for their linear networks---then decide what to sublicense to CBS-Sports Network--and finally slide the rest to ESPN+ to force ACC fans to buy ESPN+ subscriptions. If the packages are split---ESPN might not even win enough inventory to fill their 32 empty slots if they are too frugal with their bidding. My guess---the AAC never makes it to the open market and signs a deal worth 6-8 million per team during the final days of the exclusive negotiating period.
Agreed about signing with ESPN during the exclusive period. I'm not sure about the money. I'll revisit my old 2012 calculations (which were, at the time, considered apocalyptically pessimistic, but turned out to be optimistic) and see what I'd change. (I think I'd have to swap out Boise STate and Louisville and SDSU and Rutgers SNY sublicensing for Tulane, Tulsa, ECU and Wichita State.)
Honestly, the AAC gets a raise just by selling ESPN only what ESPN actually uses and selling the rest direct to CBS-Sports or NBC. I suspect the biggest hang up is going to be moving CBS-Sports Network content to ESPN+. ESPN will have to pay a premium and maybe throw the AAC a bowl bone (ie--funding a quality post season destination bowl game vs a relatively high P5---its really just a matter of enough money to make it palatable).
As for the value---Ive come at it a few different ways---but it keep lanidng in the same rough 6-8 million area--even when Im fairly conservative. Of course, worst case scenarios run lower--but Im looking at most likely.
(11-19-2018 12:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 11:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]Realistically with how everything is playing out, the two biggest factors for the AAC getting an increase in TV rights fees are:
(1) Whether there are other legitimately interested bidders; and/or
(2) ESPN's budget for ESPN+ and the AAC's willingness to put more games on that platform
ESPN+ is really where ESPN is justifying higher rights fees in the current environment because they're in startup growth mode. As a result, Disney is willing to pay extra to get exclusive content for ESPN+ and incur losses as of now. Linear network programming is where they're trying to contain costs. I think ESPN would be willing to pay a premium to get more AAC content on ESPN+ because it perfectly fits their model of that platform being heavily focused on fans of non-P5 college conferences. The AAC has less leverage with respect to linear platforms (at least in terms of pricing) - ESPN still has a lot of "replacement level" inventory that it can run on its linear networks, so that's not where their greatest need is as of now.
The above scenario seems more likely to me (ESPN paying a premium to get more ESPN+ content) than another bidder driving up the price.
Can you provide and example of ESPN attempting to contain cost on the linear side with respect to live sports rights contracts? The only place I’ve seen ESPN cut costs on the linear side is in studio staff and production staff. I can’t find a single example of ESPN doing much to contain costs on linear live sports rights. The closest I can come was an uncompetitive bid on the the first half of the Big10 rights. They still ended up paying 3X more per game for the 50% of the Big10 rights they actually retained (they paid 50% more for half the Big10 than they used to pay for all of it in the old contract).
The ESPN contract with Top Rank Boxing is a good example as it was extended additional years solely because of ESPN+. The number of cards per year on ESPN didn't increase, just the terms of length and additional cards on ESPN+
(11-19-2018 01:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 01:13 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: [ -> ]Who is ESPN competing with for the contract? Nobody. That is a the driving market reality.
Naming two off the top of my head---NBC and CBS-Sports, for sure. I dont see FOX as a bidder. There has been talk that Turner is interested....and of course, the major FANG streamers like Amazon or Twitter could be potential wild cards.
Lets look at it from ESPN's stand point. This is not 2013 when they really didnt need the AAC and picked it up for a song just because they could. Since then, ESPN lost half of thier Big10 inventory. Next year, the ACC Network begins--and though it will largely be filled with inventory obtained from Raycom--I suspect a few games from the current ESPN inventory will be moved there to make the network more attracive during carriage negotiations. So, ESPN likely has even more slots they need AAC inventory to fill. Oh, and since 2013 the AAC has posted a MUCH better than expected record of TV ratings. If ESPN knows the AAC has wildly outperformed its 2 million a team price tag in the Nielson ratings----I suspect every other network knows that as well and will be very interested in picking up a great bang for the buck media property.
Today, the AAC fills 32 slots a year on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU--almost half of those games were on ABC or ESPN. Currently, ESPN+ is seeking subscribers and would likely love to have a 10-15 game chunk of tier 3 AAC inventory to draw AAC fans as subscribers.
The AAC has significant value to ESPN, but the AAC would likely make more by splitting its inventory into packages letting NBC, ESPN, and CBS-Sports (along with whoever else) bid on these smaller packages. That's risky for ESPN, because they really need it all so they can pick and choose the best games for their linear networks---then decide what to sublicense to CBS-Sports Network--and finally slide the rest to ESPN+ to force ACC fans to buy ESPN+ subscriptions. If the packages are split---ESPN might not even win enough inventory to fill their 32 empty slots if they are too frugal with their bidding. My guess---the AAC never makes it to the open market and signs a deal worth 6-8 million per team during the final days of the exclusive negotiating period.
NBC and NBCSN still have only an evening window open for the AAC. NBCSN's commitment to the NASCAR Xfinity Series on college football Saturdays generally includes an hour of qualifying plus the race itself, in addition to Monster Energy Cup qualifying. They, NBC, could work with NASCAR for a real window for afternoon football on NBCSN, but that's unlikely.
(11-19-2018 01:59 PM)Gamecock Wrote: [ -> ]When is the negotiating period?
I believe ESPN's exclusive window ends sometime in February 2019. After that, the American can go to open market.
Unlike last time, ESPN has no right to match any open market offers. So ESPN should be motivated to make its best offer by February.
(11-19-2018 04:26 PM)CougarRed Wrote: [ -> ] (11-19-2018 01:59 PM)Gamecock Wrote: [ -> ]When is the negotiating period?
I believe ESPN's exclusive window ends sometime in February 2019. After that, the American can go to open market.
Unlike last time, ESPN has no right to match any open market offers. So ESPN should be motivated to make its best offer by February.
Important part.
I still wouldn't put it past espn to encourage a p5 conference to take 2 teams to gut our value and kill off our p6 narrative for good. Wouldn't be the first time they did it.
(11-19-2018 04:39 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote: [ -> ]I still wouldn't put it past espn to encourage a p5 conference to take 2 teams to gut our value and kill off our p6 narrative for good. Wouldn't be the first time they did it.
Problem for them is the fork out 20 to 30 mil each to do that. They would be just as well off, taking the 40 or 50 mil n putting towards a new AAC deal. 48 mil per year and you are at 4 mil per team, which is likely 1/2 way to owning the whole package.