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Saint3333 Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Bowl projections
I wonder if the shoe were on the other foot if you’d agree.

Nothing wrong with giving the champ their pick, they earned it and a reward for the team.
11-14-2018 09:19 PM
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Arrowhead Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Bowl projections
(11-14-2018 09:07 PM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  A couple of things here:

The loser of the championship game is NOT guaranteed a spot in a bowl. The league will push for it, but it isn't a done deal, especially in a year where the division champion is 6-6 and then loses the title game. I do believe the title game loser will get placed but it is NOT automatic.

Now as far as the NO bowl is concerned, I'd love it if the champion got an auto there. But, again just my opinion, that should only happen if the other conference agrees to send their champion as well. Now New Orleans would have something to market.

Barring that, they should select the team that's going to sell the most tickets. The six highest attended bowls have had Louisiana schools participating, including La. Tech's appearance a couple of years ago.

I know everyone would like to play in New Orleans.

I'm not assuming a 6-6 Louisiana team gets taken automatically by NO. But a 7-5 Louisiana team that finishes either 7-6 or 8-5 after the title game is a lock.

I was going to mention doesn’t a 7-5 get taken before all 6-6 teams for at large bids?
11-14-2018 09:23 PM
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BirdofParadise Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Bowl projections
(11-14-2018 09:23 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  
(11-14-2018 09:07 PM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  A couple of things here:

The loser of the championship game is NOT guaranteed a spot in a bowl. The league will push for it, but it isn't a done deal, especially in a year where the division champion is 6-6 and then loses the title game. I do believe the title game loser will get placed but it is NOT automatic.

Now as far as the NO bowl is concerned, I'd love it if the champion got an auto there. But, again just my opinion, that should only happen if the other conference agrees to send their champion as well. Now New Orleans would have something to market.

Barring that, they should select the team that's going to sell the most tickets. The six highest attended bowls have had Louisiana schools participating, including La. Tech's appearance a couple of years ago.

I know everyone would like to play in New Orleans.

I'm not assuming a 6-6 Louisiana team gets taken automatically by NO. But a 7-5 Louisiana team that finishes either 7-6 or 8-5 after the title game is a lock.

I was going to mention doesn’t a 7-5 get taken before all 6-6 teams for at large bids?

I don't think that applies any more. But I could be wrong. I"ve slept since then.
11-14-2018 10:36 PM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Bowl projections
I do believe that we’ll see NOLA knocked down the peg a little or a CUSA style where the champ gets to pick with the next set of bowl contracts. Especially if some things happen with the Cure Bowl to make it even more attractive.
11-14-2018 10:38 PM
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BirdofParadise Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Bowl projections
Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.
11-15-2018 07:38 AM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Bowl projections
And if it gets the four letter network behind it with some more cash influx and stays an AAC matchup that has top SBC game written all over it.
11-15-2018 07:47 AM
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GoAppsGo92 Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 07:38 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.

I’m rooting for the Cure Bowl myself, but knowing how far down the picking order they are, I doubt it will happen. In terms of the location and the matchup against the AAC it should be one of our highest placement priorities.

Barring that, I’d love to see some at-large bowls step up and take a few of our better teams. Looks like we will have 6-7 teams eligible. It could happen with a few breaks in the bowl scene.
11-15-2018 07:47 AM
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DeanoAPP Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:38 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.

I’m rooting for the Cure Bowl myself, but knowing how far down the picking order they are, I doubt it will happen. In terms of the location and the matchup against the AAC it should be one of our highest placement priorities.

Barring that, I’d love to see some at-large bowls step up and take a few of our better teams. Looks like we will have 6-7 teams eligible. It could happen with a few breaks in the bowl scene.

I know I've heard many APP fans speaking these same sentiments, I went with my buds to the first two Camelia Bowls and we had a great time, however if we get picked for the Camelia Bowl again this year and the opponent is Ohio or Toledo, I think the crowd will be half the size of what we normally bring. I think fans either want some variety in bowl destinations or a high visibility opponent, and maybe our AD knows this and has some say so when the bowl committee's send out invites.
11-15-2018 08:03 AM
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Crawlspace Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:38 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.

I’m rooting for the Cure Bowl myself, but knowing how far down the picking order they are, I doubt it will happen. In terms of the location and the matchup against the AAC it should be one of our highest placement priorities.

Barring that, I’d love to see some at-large bowls step up and take a few of our better teams. Looks like we will have 6-7 teams eligible. It could happen with a few breaks in the bowl scene.
I want that one, too. But even in a bad year Troy is going to have a hard time getting out of Alabama. Depending on how the game with App goes, I see either Dollar General or a way too small Camellia. Realistically NO will want a Lousiana school, though Tech would fill that spot nicely if they don't turn their collective noses up at the chance again. Which leaves the Sunbelt spot open for someone other than the Cajuns.
11-15-2018 08:06 AM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #90
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:38 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.

I’m rooting for the Cure Bowl myself, but knowing how far down the picking order they are, I doubt it will happen. In terms of the location and the matchup against the AAC it should be one of our highest placement priorities.

Barring that, I’d love to see some at-large bowls step up and take a few of our better teams. Looks like we will have 6-7 teams eligible. It could happen with a few breaks in the bowl scene.

I could see it happening actually. If NOLA takes a 7-win ULL team OR App doesn't win the conference. I see Mobile possibly taking Troy, Montgomery I dont' believe would take App again and probably see GS and a big crowd. That sets up nicely for App to Orlando.
11-15-2018 08:57 AM
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Yosef Himself Offline
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Post: #91
RE: Bowl projections
I love the idea of the Cure Bowl. I do also have some issues with it too. First and foremost: the television network. CBS Sports Network is impossible to watch. They don't stream, not on any of the normal sports lineups, etc. Second, it's the third bowl game for the city of Orlando held at a stadium that's way too big and will look empty, even with 30k in attendance.


Orlando
NOLA
Mobile
Myrtle
Montgomery

We need one more bowl to keep the conference at 5 during the Myrtle off years. Maybe try and sign a tie-in with the Arizona Bowl for those two off years.
11-15-2018 10:21 AM
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CasualFanCCU Offline
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Post: #92
RE: Bowl projections
Currently there are 66 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. The attached image shows the 34 teams that can gain eligibility, and their probability of becoming eligible using today's ESPN FPI. The expected value calculation says 12-13 more eligible, so 6-7 get left out. That's with a decent amount of uncertainty.


.png  BowlEligibleProb.png (Size: 67.78 KB / Downloads: 16)

Highlights:
Louisiana (91.5%)
Coastal Carolina (76.4%)

20 of 34 teams have a better than 50% chance

Most Likely: South Carolina (99.9%)
Least Likely: Illinois (1.2%)

Notes:
Hawai'i needs 7 wins to become eligible because they play a 13 game schedule.
Liberty (transition from FCS) and Ole Miss (self-imposed bowl ban) are not eligible.

EDIT: Fixed # eligible
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2018 10:47 AM by CasualFanCCU.)
11-15-2018 10:41 AM
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Hemi Man Offline
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Post: #93
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 08:06 AM)Crawlspace Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:38 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Those who have gone to the Cure Bowl say it's top notch.

I’m rooting for the Cure Bowl myself, but knowing how far down the picking order they are, I doubt it will happen. In terms of the location and the matchup against the AAC it should be one of our highest placement priorities.

Barring that, I’d love to see some at-large bowls step up and take a few of our better teams. Looks like we will have 6-7 teams eligible. It could happen with a few breaks in the bowl scene.
I want that one, too. But even in a bad year Troy is going to have a hard time getting out of Alabama. Depending on how the game with App goes, I see either Dollar General or a way too small Camellia. Realistically NO will want a Lousiana school, though Tech would fill that spot nicely if they don't turn their collective noses up at the chance again. Which leaves the Sunbelt spot open for someone other than the Cajuns.

Montgomery won’t pass on Troy. There will be some pressure on the NOLA Bowl for them to pass on a 6-6 Louisiana team. Whether that changes anything is unknown. I don’t get the hate for the Camellia Bowl by some Troy people. With a decent opponent it’s a sellout and there will be fans unable to get tickets. All indications are that they do a good job with the festivities. Troy took a good crowd to NOLA. North Texas brought handful of fans.
11-15-2018 12:39 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #94
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)warhawk09 Wrote:  And if it gets the four letter network behind it with some more cash influx and stays an AAC matchup that has top SBC game written all over it.

Cash influx has nothing to do with the strength of a bowl. It's not like the league gets that money. Especially in the case of the Cure bowl, which gives most of that money to cancer research.

The other thing is that CBSSN frankly does a far better job with bowl coverage than ESPN. 4 letter Network reaches more eyeballs, but you're going to sit through a 3 hour infomercial for the College Football Playoff to get there...
11-15-2018 12:48 PM
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Hemi Man Offline
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Post: #95
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 10:41 AM)CasualFanCCU Wrote:  Currently there are 66 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. The attached image shows the 34 teams that can gain eligibility, and their probability of becoming eligible using today's ESPN FPI. The expected value calculation says 12-13 more eligible, so 6-7 get left out. That's with a decent amount of uncertainty.



Highlights:
Louisiana (91.5%)
Coastal Carolina (76.4%)

20 of 34 teams have a better than 50% chance

Most Likely: South Carolina (99.9%)
Least Likely: Illinois (1.2%)

Notes:
Hawai'i needs 7 wins to become eligible because they play a 13 game schedule.
Liberty (transition from FCS) and Ole Miss (self-imposed bowl ban) are not eligible.

EDIT: Fixed # eligible

If your team does make a bowl game you should always buy your tickets through the university. That’s part of the payout. That number also is attractive, or not, to bowl reps in the future.
11-15-2018 12:51 PM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #96
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 12:48 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)warhawk09 Wrote:  And if it gets the four letter network behind it with some more cash influx and stays an AAC matchup that has top SBC game written all over it.

Cash influx has nothing to do with the strength of a bowl. It's not like the league gets that money. Especially in the case of the Cure bowl, which gives most of that money to cancer research.

The other thing is that CBSSN frankly does a far better job with bowl coverage than ESPN. 4 letter Network reaches more eyeballs, but you're going to sit through a 3 hour infomercial for the College Football Playoff to get there...

Uh no. Cash that bowls can spend equals better events that bowls can put on, gifts they give out, etc. 100 times out of 100 you want your bowl game on ESPN instead of CBSSN.
11-15-2018 01:17 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #97
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 01:17 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 12:48 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)warhawk09 Wrote:  And if it gets the four letter network behind it with some more cash influx and stays an AAC matchup that has top SBC game written all over it.

Cash influx has nothing to do with the strength of a bowl. It's not like the league gets that money. Especially in the case of the Cure bowl, which gives most of that money to cancer research.

The other thing is that CBSSN frankly does a far better job with bowl coverage than ESPN. 4 letter Network reaches more eyeballs, but you're going to sit through a 3 hour infomercial for the College Football Playoff to get there...

Uh no. Cash that bowls can spend equals better events that bowls can put on, gifts they give out, etc. 100 times out of 100 you want your bowl game on ESPN instead of CBSSN.

NCAA already has limits on what bowls can give as gifts. Money into the bowl isn't going to change that much.
11-15-2018 01:23 PM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Bowl projections
(11-15-2018 01:23 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 01:17 PM)warhawk09 Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 12:48 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2018 07:47 AM)warhawk09 Wrote:  And if it gets the four letter network behind it with some more cash influx and stays an AAC matchup that has top SBC game written all over it.

Cash influx has nothing to do with the strength of a bowl. It's not like the league gets that money. Especially in the case of the Cure bowl, which gives most of that money to cancer research.

The other thing is that CBSSN frankly does a far better job with bowl coverage than ESPN. 4 letter Network reaches more eyeballs, but you're going to sit through a 3 hour infomercial for the College Football Playoff to get there...

Uh no. Cash that bowls can spend equals better events that bowls can put on, gifts they give out, etc. 100 times out of 100 you want your bowl game on ESPN instead of CBSSN.

NCAA already has limits on what bowls can give as gifts. Money into the bowl isn't going to change that much.

And not all bowls give the same or spend the same.
11-15-2018 02:01 PM
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Arrowhead Offline
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Post: #99
RE: Bowl projections
Hundsucker did an article today and did say that all 7-5 teams must be placed in at-large bowls before 6-6 teams. That’s why one more win for ULM pretty much guarantees us a bowl.
11-15-2018 02:03 PM
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warhawk09 Offline
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Post: #100
RE: Bowl projections
I believe he is confused ... I’m pretty sure that rule doesn’t exist anymore.
11-15-2018 02:33 PM
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