TROUBLE IN PARADISE

(08-07-2018 10:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:43 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

Lovely. We're dumb. You're smart. Yeah. Really nice.

This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.

The problem is there are far more dumb people in this country than smart.

(08-08-2018 12:40 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:43 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

Lovely. We're dumb. You're smart. Yeah. Really nice.

This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.

The problem is there are far more dumb people in this country than smart.

Agreed.

You prove that every day...

(08-08-2018 01:09 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(08-08-2018 12:40 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:43 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

Lovely. We're dumb. You're smart. Yeah. Really nice.

This has been the trend since 2016. And if you look at the precincts where Balderson did better, they highly correlate with areas with relatively lower college degreed individuals. I made no characterization about you in the post.

The problem is there are far more dumb people in this country than smart.

Agreed.

You prove that every day...

Which simply means there are more people in this district that want the government to pay off their student loans.

Anyone hung over this morning from too much Klingon Blood Wine last night ?

(08-08-2018 06:02 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  Anyone hung over this morning from too much Klingon Blood Wine last night ?

I'm still waiting for Tom's answer.

(08-07-2018 10:49 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:44 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Here's my thought about the Greens. I just ignore them. They probably would just rather go to a gluten free anti-vax bike lane rally than vote. I don't think that they really are voting for a Democrat if a Green isn't in the race....they're flat out not voting.

When they come up to me, as they periodically do, I just dismiss them with "I'd respond to you, but I'm waiting for perfect, so I'll just not engage with you, just like you do with your vote".

How dafuq do you know who's "a green"? I've never seen anyone as tied to identity politics as you Tom.

(08-08-2018 06:30 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  

(08-08-2018 06:02 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  Anyone hung over this morning from too much Klingon Blood Wine last night ?

I'm still waiting for Tom's answer.

(08-07-2018 10:49 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:44 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Here's my thought about the Greens. I just ignore them. They probably would just rather go to a gluten free anti-vax bike lane rally than vote. I don't think that they really are voting for a Democrat if a Green isn't in the race....they're flat out not voting.

When they come up to me, as they periodically do, I just dismiss them with "I'd respond to you, but I'm waiting for perfect, so I'll just not engage with you, just like you do with your vote".

How dafuq do you know who's "a green"? I've never seen anyone as tied to identity politics as you Tom.

Even if all the Green votes when dem, they still would have lost.

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:23 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 09:51 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Translation: “if we’re 50-49 in a 66-34 district... I feel pretty good about taking back the House in 2018.”

More like a 53-42 district. But point taken... sort of.

(08-07-2018 09:53 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  GOP had a very low turnout. Kind of like when an SEC plays their B squad against a 1-AA team and still wins by 10.

Is that really what happened in OH-12, though?

The district broke 66-29 in 2016 for Frank Tiberi. Its a more traditional, Rockefeller republican district... John Kasich once represented this district. Trump’s Republican Party is consistently underperforming in country club suburban districts that once broke heavily for Republicans.

Trump and the Republicans are doing VERY well with Republican voters despite what you read in the NYT and hear from the never-Trumper paid talking heads. My friends who I would consider most likely to waver are very strongly behind Trump's policies.

Are Republican leaning independents less likely to vote R? Maybe. Democratic leaning blue collar independents are definitely voting more R.

I think the election results will show, relative to 2016

1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

This district is 88 percent non-Hispanic white so there's really very little data to go on regarding minority voters.

Obviously the Dem increase of 10 percent came from somewhere. Was it all just higher Dem voter intensity? I think that was a lot of it, and probably a massive gender gap. I suspect that Trumps numbers among independent white voters with college degrees is where the additional Dem voters are coming from.

Who is "smarter"? A high-school grad going to tech school to to be a welder and making $40k a year at 20 years old, or a liberal arts major that's 40k in debt half way through college?

(08-08-2018 06:30 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  

(08-08-2018 06:02 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  Anyone hung over this morning from too much Klingon Blood Wine last night ?

I'm still waiting for Tom's answer.

(08-07-2018 10:49 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:44 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Here's my thought about the Greens. I just ignore them. They probably would just rather go to a gluten free anti-vax bike lane rally than vote. I don't think that they really are voting for a Democrat if a Green isn't in the race....they're flat out not voting.

When they come up to me, as they periodically do, I just dismiss them with "I'd respond to you, but I'm waiting for perfect, so I'll just not engage with you, just like you do with your vote".

How dafuq do you know who's "a green"? I've never seen anyone as tied to identity politics as you Tom.

It does seem to define him, huh?

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:23 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 09:51 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Translation: “if we’re 50-49 in a 66-34 district... I feel pretty good about taking back the House in 2018.”

More like a 53-42 district. But point taken... sort of.

(08-07-2018 09:53 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  GOP had a very low turnout. Kind of like when an SEC plays their B squad against a 1-AA team and still wins by 10.

Is that really what happened in OH-12, though?

The district broke 66-29 in 2016 for Frank Tiberi. Its a more traditional, Rockefeller republican district... John Kasich once represented this district. Trump’s Republican Party is consistently underperforming in country club suburban districts that once broke heavily for Republicans.

Trump and the Republicans are doing VERY well with Republican voters despite what you read in the NYT and hear from the never-Trumper paid talking heads. My friends who I would consider most likely to waver are very strongly behind Trump's policies.

Are Republican leaning independents less likely to vote R? Maybe. Democratic leaning blue collar independents are definitely voting more R.

I think the election results will show, relative to 2016

1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

This district is 88 percent non-Hispanic white so there's really very little data to go on regarding minority voters.

Obviously the Dem increase of 10 percent came from somewhere. Was it all just higher Dem voter intensity? I think that was a lot of it, and probably a massive gender gap. I suspect that Trumps numbers among independent white voters with college degrees is where the additional Dem voters are coming from.

Additional proof that a college degree doesn't endue the graduate with a higher degree of intelligence.

(08-08-2018 07:58 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:23 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  More like a 53-42 district. But point taken... sort of.

Is that really what happened in OH-12, though?

The district broke 66-29 in 2016 for Frank Tiberi. Its a more traditional, Rockefeller republican district... John Kasich once represented this district. Trump’s Republican Party is consistently underperforming in country club suburban districts that once broke heavily for Republicans.

Trump and the Republicans are doing VERY well with Republican voters despite what you read in the NYT and hear from the never-Trumper paid talking heads. My friends who I would consider most likely to waver are very strongly behind Trump's policies.

Are Republican leaning independents less likely to vote R? Maybe. Democratic leaning blue collar independents are definitely voting more R.

I think the election results will show, relative to 2016

1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

This district is 88 percent non-Hispanic white so there's really very little data to go on regarding minority voters.

Obviously the Dem increase of 10 percent came from somewhere. Was it all just higher Dem voter intensity? I think that was a lot of it, and probably a massive gender gap. I suspect that Trumps numbers among independent white voters with college degrees is where the additional Dem voters are coming from.

Additional proof that a college degree doesn't endue the graduate with a higher degree of intelligence.

Nor an ounce of common sense.

(08-07-2018 10:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  I think the election results will show, relative to 2016

1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

This district is 88 percent non-Hispanic white so there's really very little data to go on regarding minority voters.

Obviously the Dem increase of 10 percent came from somewhere. Was it all just higher Dem voter intensity? I think that was a lot of it, and probably a massive gender gap. I suspect that Trumps numbers among independent white voters with college degrees is where the additional Dem voters are coming from.

There is a difference between smart and educated. I know plenty of educated people that can't figure out how to set up a Roku. And, I know plenty of smart mechanics, plumbers, and AC repair men. By the way, I'm a minority with two college degrees and have never voted for a democrat.

Last night the dems lost in Ohio because their extreme base was the bulk of their support, and that faction voted early. The average democrat didn't get off the couch on election day. Republicans were lulled into a false sense of entitlement to the seat, and didn't show up for the special election either.

I actually find the results rather encouraging. It appears only the extreme faction of the dem party is energized heading into November. That is a good sign for Republicans. Once the hard hitting TV ads (Waters' call for violence, ANTIFA violence and attacks on diners, #walkaway, Dems at the State of the Union Address,...) start appearing, the more centrist dems will be even less inclined to vote in November, and the more Republicans will feel motivated.

There are still 8000 votes to count. Over 5000 for early voting through the mail from the Military and all that. Another 3000 for provisional ballots which could stem from the state's messed up on purging registered voters who should not have been purged to other issues.

There is enough votes that need to be counted before a winner can be announced. Early mail in voted tend to be Democrats. It could be Republicans who voted Democrats because they are tired of Trump's Twitter habits and so forth.

As it is, the race is a dead tied for now. Nobody have won yet.

I read in the dispatch these 2 candidates run again in November? Why have a special election in August?

(08-08-2018 08:58 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  I read in the dispatch these 2 candidates run again in November? Why have a special election in August?

Agreed... it makes no sense. Complete waste of time and money.

(08-08-2018 08:58 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  I read in the dispatch these 2 candidates run again in November? Why have a special election in August?

there must be a rule that states when they return to session after the break, there must be a physical body in the seat....

(08-08-2018 08:54 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  There are still 8000 votes to count. Over 5000 for early voting through the mail from the Military and all that. Another 3000 for provisional ballots which could stem from the state's messed up on purging registered voters who should not have been purged to other issues.

There is enough votes that need to be counted before a winner can be announced. Early mail in voted tend to be Democrats. It could be Republicans who voted Democrats because they are tired of Trump's Twitter habits and so forth.

As it is, the race is a dead tied for now. Nobody have won yet.

you right....."nobody have"....they have a few weeks before the worthless come back from their summer siesta....

(08-08-2018 09:10 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(08-08-2018 08:58 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  I read in the dispatch these 2 candidates run again in November? Why have a special election in August?

there must be a rule that states when they return to session after the break, there must be a physical body in the seat....

Democrats getting the vote out

(08-08-2018 09:10 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(08-08-2018 08:58 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  I read in the dispatch these 2 candidates run again in November? Why have a special election in August?

there must be a rule that states when they return to session after the break, there must be a physical body in the seat....

and then the Gov should have just appointed a warm body for 90 days.

(08-07-2018 08:53 PM)Machiavelli Wrote:  Looks like the Republicans found some truck loads of ballots. They always do.

I get the tone of sarcasm in your post. It's humorous because it's Dems that somehow find ways to stuff the ballot box.

Word was that was the reason several states were called so late for Trump... they were hoping the margins were close enough where they could actually change the outcome by pulling out some of the back-pocket ballots.