The AAC deserves a nice raise. Unfortunately, I think that a hit job is coming. The conference is slowly becoming more dangerous, and TPTB will slaughter the league right now.

...and I might be done with college sports if what I think will happen actually does. Too little, too late for Tulane. Should have joined the dark side in the 1990s.

Here is what I think.

Tier 1:
ACC
Big 10
Big 12
PAC 12
SEC
UConn.
Cincinnati
East Carolina
UCF
USF
Navy
Memphis
Houston
ODU
UTSA
UTEP
Northern Illinois
Toledo
San Diego State
Hawaii
Fresno State
UNR
Colorado State
New Mexico
Air Force
Boise State
Wyoming
Army
BYU
UMass.
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Montana
Delaware

Tier 2:
Temple
Tulsa
Tulane
C-USA
San Jose State
UNLV
MAC
Sun Belt
Liberty
big Sky
Southland
MVFC
OVC
CAA
Southern Conference
florida A&M
Jackson State
Kennesaw State
North Alabama
West Texas A&M
Wichita State football
UTRGV football
New Mexico State
Little Rock football
UTA football
West Texas A&M
Midwestern State
Kingsville
Azusa Pacific
Dixie State
Central Oklahoma
Wayne State, Michigan
West Florida
FGCU football
North Florida football

Rest of FCS, D2 and D3 schools would be tier 3 and 4.

A more likely way to create a new G6 conference is for CUSA to split into 2 different conferences.

Or CUSA and sunbelt deciding they want reorganize into 3 different conferences.

(07-23-2018 07:29 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The AAC deserves a nice raise. Unfortunately, I think that a hit job is coming. The conference is slowly becoming more dangerous, and TPTB will slaughter the league right now.

...and I might be done with college sports if what I think will happen actually does. Too little, too late for Tulane. Should have joined the dark side in the 1990s.

"deserves a nice raise" is a sentiment. But market decides:

I decided to look over the entire 2018 AAC controlled games (I am counting ND vs Navy because when it's nuetral site in the future that will be AAC controlled), as an example of what to expect in value:


Sep 1
Wake Forest at Tulane (Thursday) // P5
UCF at UConn
Villanova at Temple // FCS
Elon at USF // FCS
Mercer at Memphis // FCS
Central Arkansas at Tulsa // FCS
NC A&T at ECU // FCS

Sep 8
TCU at SMU (Friday) // P5
Arizona at Houston // P5
Georgia Tech at USF // P5
North Carolina at ECU // P5
Memphis at Navy
Buffalo at Temple
Nicholls at Tulane // FCS
SC State at UCF // FCS

Sep 15
Georgia State at Memphis (Friday)
Arkansas State at Tulsa
Lehigh at Navy // FCS
Rhode Island at UConn // FCS
Alabama A&M at Cincy // FCS

Sep 22:
Temple at Tulsa (Thursday)
FAU at UCF (Friday) // Winner NY6 ticket ?
ECU at USF
Navy at SMU
Texas Southern at Houston // FCS
South Alabama at Memphis
Ohio at Cincy

Sep 29:
Memphis at Tulane (Friday)
Houston Baptist at SMU // FCS
ODU at ECU
Cincy at UConn
Pitt at UCF // P5

Oct 6
Tulsa at Houston (Thursday)
Tulane at Cincy
ECU at Temple
SMU at UCF
UConn at Memphis

Oct 13
USF at Tulsa (Friday)
Houston at ECU
Temple at Navy
UCF at Memphis

Oct 20
SMU at Tulane
Houston at Navy
UConn at USF
UCF at ECU
Cincy at Temple

Oct 27
Cincy at SMU
UMass at UConn
USF at Houston
Notre Dame vs Navy // P5
Tulane at Tulsa

Nov 3
Temple at UCF (Thursday)
UConn at Tulsa
Tulane at USF
Houston at SMU
Navy at Cincy
Memphis at ECU

Nov 10
Navy at UCF
Temple at Houston
ECU at Tulane
USF at Cincy
SMU at UConn
Tulsa at Memphis

Nov 17
Tulane at Houston (Thursday)
Memphis at SMU (Friday)
USF at Temple
UConn at ECU
Tulsa at Navy
Cincy at UCF

Nov 24
ECU at Cincy (Friday)
UCF at USF (Friday)
Houston at Memphis (Friday)
Temple at UConn
Navy at Tulane
SMU at Tulsa

Analysis: The Notre Dame vs. Navy game is probably worth a $6-8m boost alone, but you need to divide by 2 since it is every other year.

The Friday Sep 21 FAU at UCF game is huge and may be the most compelling non-P5 game until the final weekend, when very likely one of the three Friday Night games may be for a division title and keep a team alive in the NY6 chase (or kill it off).

Sep 8 weekend has an amazing 4 P5 opponents coming to AAC stadiums. I thought this would be of great help until I looked at the P5 lineup that weekend:

// non conference
Iowa State at Iowa
Mississippi State vs Kansas State
UCLA at Oklahoma
Clemson at Texas A&M
Penn State at Pitt
Colorado at Nebraska
Michigan State at Arizona State
Duke at Northwestern
Virginia at Indiana
UCLA at BYU // ESPN will put this on
Arkansas at Colorado State
// conference
USC at Stanford
Georgia at South Carolina
Kentucky at Florida
Rutgers at Ohio State

At a minimum I see 9 games ahead of the best ones the AAC can muster:

Arizona at Houston
Georgia Tech at USF

North Carolina at ECU is pretty localized, sort of like Iowa State vs Iowa, but not as big as the ancient traditional Iowa rivalry. TCU at SMU is not a needle mover because SMU just isn't rival material. Maryland at Bowling Green (also ESPN controlled) will probably top GT at USF, simply because of the B1G fan base. Utah at NIU (another ESPN property) is not likely to be much watched.

The rest of the season is a bunch of who cares conference games, and a pile of FCS opponents or CUSA or Sun Belt that nobody gives a flip about. It's a lot of junk inventory that will not displace an ACC or B12 2nd line team game, let alone challenge an SEC or first line B12 or ACC entry.

Bottom line the above inventory, excepting 6 or so games has very little value, would get tossed on the overflow ESPNU and ESPN3 channels. Math says 7 or 8 AAC teams wont be in the race after the first week of October, further eroding the inventory value.

Yes the AAC is a bit stronger than the other G5 conferences, but that doesn't make Tulsa at ECU or Memphis at UConn, or Temple at SMU or USF at Tulane any more compelling than watching reruns of the Big Bang Theory. There is no value added for that content. It's pretty much the same for non alumni as watching MACtion on Tuesday night between Toledo and Ball State -- you only care if your a degenerate gambler.

***************

The above is why I separate "deserve" and "market" values. It is why I don't see a big pay day coming. There just isn't enough content to justify extra money.

I do see a bit more value in the AAC, because they are likely to have 3 or 4 more compelling games than other G5. But if those games are worth an extra $2m in advertising each, we are talking $8-12m only above a typical G5 contract, or maybe $1m more than say an MWC contract per school per year, and further half of that is from the Notre Dame game with Navy every other year.

That is not a game changer. The B1G will be distributing north of $50m per school next year. And even the poor P12 will be distributing around $32m. These numbers will go up a couple million every year well into the next decade, widening the gap.

That is what the market place dictates.

I could see some possible upsets from FCS ranks over AAC schools.

Villanova Vs Temple should be televised game on tv because of the long history between the two for all sports. Villanova have beaten Temple in the past in football. Both schools are at home advantage at the same time. This is usually the highest crowd Villanova would get.

Central Arkansas at Tulsa would be another close game. UCA have been getting better and better every year.

North Carolina A&T at ECU would be an upset alert for sure. NC A&T wants to keep their winning streak alive.

Nicholls at Tulane. Nicholls was not a push over last year like they were years before. Both would brings fans to the game.

Lehigh at Navy would keep an eye on. Patriot schools at times do keep the score close with the Academy military schools because they are conference mates in the other sports.

URI at UConn.UConn at times fumble the ball to FCS teams. URI could pull of an upset.

(07-24-2018 02:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  I could see some possible upsets from FCS ranks over AAC schools.

Villanova Vs Temple should be televised game on tv because of the long history between the two for all sports. Villanova have beaten Temple in the past in football. Both schools are at home advantage at the same time. This is usually the highest crowd Villanova would get.

Central Arkansas at Tulsa would be another close game. UCA have been getting better and better every year.

North Carolina A&T at ECU would be an upset alert for sure. NC A&T wants to keep their winning streak alive.

Nicholls at Tulane. Nicholls was not a push over last year like they were years before. Both would brings fans to the game.

Lehigh at Navy would keep an eye on. Patriot schools at times do keep the score close with the Academy military schools because they are conference mates in the other sports.

URI at UConn.UConn at times fumble the ball to FCS teams. URI could pull of an upset.

2016 Navy 52 Fordham 16
2015 Navy 48 Colgate 10

(07-24-2018 04:56 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-24-2018 02:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  I could see some possible upsets from FCS ranks over AAC schools.

Villanova Vs Temple should be televised game on tv because of the long history between the two for all sports. Villanova have beaten Temple in the past in football. Both schools are at home advantage at the same time. This is usually the highest crowd Villanova would get.

Central Arkansas at Tulsa would be another close game. UCA have been getting better and better every year.

North Carolina A&T at ECU would be an upset alert for sure. NC A&T wants to keep their winning streak alive.

Nicholls at Tulane. Nicholls was not a push over last year like they were years before. Both would brings fans to the game.

Lehigh at Navy would keep an eye on. Patriot schools at times do keep the score close with the Academy military schools because they are conference mates in the other sports.

URI at UConn.UConn at times fumble the ball to FCS teams. URI could pull of an upset.

2016 Navy 52 Fordham 16
2015 Navy 48 Colgate 10

Fordham beat a 2-10 Army in 2015. Last season Army beat the Rams by 58.

(07-23-2018 07:29 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The AAC deserves a nice raise. Unfortunately, I think that a hit job is coming. The conference is slowly becoming more dangerous, and TPTB will slaughter the league right now.

...and I might be done with college sports if what I think will happen actually does. Too little, too late for Tulane. Should have joined the dark side in the 1990s.

Who cares about the football though at most of these schools as long as the basketball plays in a nationally competitive conference?

That is what most of the FBS upgrading is about......upgrade football to get into a better basketball conference.

(07-24-2018 12:31 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-23-2018 07:29 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The AAC deserves a nice raise. Unfortunately, I think that a hit job is coming. The conference is slowly becoming more dangerous, and TPTB will slaughter the league right now.

...and I might be done with college sports if what I think will happen actually does. Too little, too late for Tulane. Should have joined the dark side in the 1990s.

"deserves a nice raise" is a sentiment. But market decides:

I decided to look over the entire 2018 AAC controlled games (I am county ND vs Navy because when it's nuetral site in the future that will be AAC controlled), as an example of what to expect in value:


Sep 1
Wake Forest at Tulane (Thursday) // P5
UCF at UConn
Villanova at Temple // FCS
Elon at USF // FCS
Mercer at Memphis // FCS
Central Arkansas at Tulsa // FCS
NC A&T at ECU // FCS

Sep 8
TCU at SMU (Friday) // P5
Arizona at Houston // P5
Georgia Tech at USF // P5
North Carolina at ECU // P5
Memphis at Navy
Buffalo at Temple
Nicholls at Tulane // FCS
SC State at UCF // FCS

Sep 15
Georgia State at Memphis (Friday)
Arkansas State at Tulsa
Lehigh at Navy // FCS
Rhode Island at UConn // FCS
Alabama A&M at Cincy // FCS

Sep 22:
Temple at Tulsa (Thursday)
FAU at UCF (Friday) // Winner NY6 ticket ?
ECU at USF
Navy at SMU
Texas Southern at Houston // FCS
South Alabama at Memphis
Ohio at Cincy

Sep 29:
Memphis at Tulane (Friday)
Houston Baptist at SMU // FCS
ODU at ECU
Cincy at UConn
Pitt at UCF // P5

Oct 6
Tulsa at Houston (Thursday)
Tulane at Cincy
ECU at Temple
SMU at UCF
UConn at Memphis

Oct 13
USF at Tulsa (Friday)
Houston at ECU
Temple at Navy
UCF at Memphis

Oct 20
SMU at Tulane
Houston at Navy
UConn at USF
UCF at ECU
Cincy at Temple

Oct 27
Cincy at SMU
UMass at UConn
USF at Houston
Notre Dame vs Navy // P5
Tulane at Tulsa

Nov 3
Temple at UCF (Thursday)
UConn at Tulsa
Tulane at USF
Houston at SMU
Navy at Cincy
Memphis at ECU

Nov 10
Navy at UCF
Temple at Houston
ECU at Tulane
USF at Cincy
SMU at UConn
Tulsa at Memphis

Nov 17
Tulane at Houston (Thursday)
Memphis at SMU (Friday)
USF at Temple
UConn at ECU
Tulsa at Navy
Cincy at UCF

Nov 24
ECU at Cincy (Friday)
UCF at USF (Friday)
Houston at Memphis (Friday)
Temple at UConn
Navy at Tulane
SMU at Tulsa

Analysis: The Notre Dame vs. Navy game is probably worth a $6-8m boost alone, but you need to divide by 2 since it is every other year.

The Friday Sep 21 FAU at UCF game is huge and may be the most compelling non-P5 game until the final weekend, when very likely one of the three Friday Night games may be for a division title and keep a team alive in the NY6 chase (or kill it off).

Sep 8 weekend has an amazing 4 P5 opponents coming to AAC stadiums. I thought this would be of great help until I looked at the P5 lineup that weekend:

// non conference
Iowa State at Iowa
Mississippi State vs Kansas State
UCLA at Oklahoma
Clemson at Texas A&M
Penn State at Pitt
Colorado at Nebraska
Michigan State at Arizona State
Duke at Northwestern
Virginia at Indiana
UCLA at BYU // ESPN will put this on
Arkansas at Colorado State
// conference
USC at Stanford
Georgia at South Carolina
Kentucky at Florida
Rutgers at Ohio State

At a minimum I see 9 games ahead of the best ones the AAC can muster:

Arizona at Houston
Georgia Tech at USF

North Carolina at ECU is pretty localized, sort of like Iowa State vs Iowa, but not as big as the ancient traditional Iowa rivalry. TCU at SMU is not a needle mover because SMU just isn't rival material. Maryland at Bowling Green (also ESPN controlled) will probably top GT at USF, simply because of the B1G fan base. Utah at NIU (another ESPN property) is not likely to be much watched.

The rest of the season is a bunch of who cares conference games, and a pile of FCS opponents or CUSA or Sun Belt that nobody gives a flip about. It's a lot of junk inventory that will not displace an ACC or B12 2nd line team game, let alone challenge an SEC or first line B12 or ACC entry.

Bottom line the above inventory, excepting 6 or so games has very little value, would get tossed on the overflow ESPNU and ESPN3 channels. Math says 7 or 8 AAC teams wont be in the race after the first week of October, further eroding the inventory value.

Yes the AAC is a bit stronger than the other G5 conferences, but that doesn't make Tulsa at ECU or Memphis at UConn, or Temple at SMU or USF at Tulane any more compelling than watching reruns of the Big Bang Theory. There is no value added for that content. It's pretty much the same for non alumni as watching MACtion on Tuesday night between Toledo and Ball State -- you only care if your a degenerate gambler.

***************

The above is why I separate "deserve" and "market" values. It is why I don't see a big pay day coming. There just isn't enough content to justify extra money.

I do see a bit more value in the AAC, because they are likely to have 3 or 4 more compelling games than other G5. But if those games are worth an extra $2m in advertising each, we are talking $8-12m only above a typical G5 contract, or maybe $1m more than say an MWC contract per school per year, and further half of that is from the Notre Dame game with Navy every other year.

That is not a game changer. The B1G will be distributing north of $50m per school next year. And even the poor P12 will be distributing around $32m. These numbers will go up a couple million every year well into the next decade, widening the gap.

That is what the market place dictates.

I don't expect to change your mind, but a couple points:
- Those two ooc games 8 September are already scheduled for OTA - they are the ABC/ESPN2 reverse mirror pairing.
- It isn't just ooc's - intra-conference games have been chosen for OTA, and they have delivered viewers. USF-UCF in the Black Friday 3:30 beat Big10 offering in the same timeslot the year before. In 2015, Navy-Houston in the lesser noon Black Friday timeslot delivered three million viewers. In 2016 Houston-Memphis did the same, with both teams already out of contention.
- Contractually the conference championship game could be on ABC or ESPN, but Disney has chosen every year to put it on ABC, and it has delivered: basically as much as the little four CCGs combined and competitive with PAC12 CCG numbers (albeit, Saturday noon vs Friday night).
- In the three years of its current composition, AAC has had 13 intra-conference games over a million viewers, DESPITE most of them being on lesser networks. Ten different teams represented in those 13 games so it's not a one-horse show or just the usual suspects.

The last two points highlight what "P6" is about - closer to the five ahead of us than the four behind. Viewers are 30-40% of the P12 BigXII, so we don't want SEC/Big10 media money (obtw, your $50 million and $32 million are total distribution not just media rights money - we won't hold that rookie mistake against you)...but we will get significantly more than the littles and hopefully keep pace with the bigs.

(07-24-2018 12:31 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The above is why I separate "deserve" and "market" values. It is why I don't see a big pay day coming. There just isn't enough content to justify extra money.

I do see a bit more value in the AAC, because they are likely to have 3 or 4 more compelling games than other G5. But if those games are worth an extra $2m in advertising each, we are talking $8-12m only above a typical G5 contract, or maybe $1m more than say an MWC contract per school per year, and further half of that is from the Notre Dame game with Navy every other year.

That is not a game changer. The B1G will be distributing north of $50m per school next year. And even the poor P12 will be distributing around $32m. These numbers will go up a couple million every year well into the next decade, widening the gap.

That is what the market place dictates.

Ultimately, this is why I do not think the AAC gets enough television revenue in order for it to be a true "tweener" conference, let alone a power conference. The AAC has a couple of valuable programs within the conference, no doubt - UCF, Houston, USF are high right now; Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple have shown they can be as well; Navy is essentially in its own tier; UConn, ECU, Tulane, SMU and Tulsa provide little-to-no value in football right now, or in the past several years. They have lots of work to do.

However, every conference has a bottom; the B1G has Rutgers and Indiana; the Big 12 has Kansas and Baylor; the ACC has Duke, Wake Forest; the SEC has Kentucky and Vanderbilt; the PAC has Washington State and Oregon State. However, those conferences are also anchored by blue-chip national programs - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska; Texas and Oklahoma; Florida State and Clemson; the SEC is stacked; USC, UCLA and Stanford. The AAC does not have a football anchor to help drive up its value. Navy, arguably, provides the most value, but they have a special arrangement with the AAC.

If UCF, USF, Houston, or whomever, do keep their programs high and competitive on a national level, they will inevitably get called-up and poached for a power conference. The incentive for G5 programs is not to build a national brand for a conference, but rather do enough to get invited out. No G5 conference carries the same history, tradition or prestige that the P5 conferences ultimately have. This is a big reason why Big East football never became a true power conference - it did not have the conference history, nor did it have a football power to anchor it.

(07-23-2018 10:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  A more likely way to create a new G6 conference is for CUSA to split into 2 different conferences.

Or CUSA and sunbelt deciding they want reorganize into 3 different conferences.

Trying to think of what this might look like:

Southwest Conference (9 Members):

North Texas - CUSA West
Rice - CUSA West
UTEP - CUSA West
UTSA - CUSA West
La Tech - CUSA West
Louisiana Lafayette - Sun Belt
Louisiana Monroe - Sun Belt
Texas State - Sun Belt
New Mexico State - FBS Independent

Eastern Conference (10 Members):

FAU - CUSA East
FIU - CUSA East
Charlotte - CUSA East
Marshall - CUSA East
ODU - CUSA East
Mid Tennessee - CUSA East
Coastal - Sun Belt
Liberty - FBS Independent
James Madison - FCS Call Up
Delaware - FCS Call Up

Sun Belt (10 members):

Southern Miss - CUSA West
UAB - CUSA West
Western Kentucky - CUSA East
App State - Sun Belt
Ark State - Sun Belt
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt
Georgia St - Sun Belt
South Alabama - Sun Belt
Troy - Sun Belt
Jacksonville St - FCS Call Up

(07-24-2018 08:18 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  The last two points highlight what "P6" is about - closer to the five ahead of us than the four behind. Viewers are 30-40% of the P12 BigXII, so we don't want SEC/Big10 media money (obtw, your $50 million and $32 million are total distribution not just media rights money - we won't hold that rookie mistake against you)...but we will get significantly more than the littles and hopefully keep pace with the bigs.

Closer to the five ahead of us than the four behind in what sense?

On the field? The past three years, the AAC has performed as an almost perfect 'tweener', almost exactly between the worst P5 and the next G5.

Money? Obviously, the AAC is currently paid purely as a "G", not a "P". But what about the next TV deal? With the worst P5 getting around $24 million right now, the AAC would have get at least $15m or so to meet your criterion.

P6 might end up being true, but even by the milquetoast standard of being closer to the nearest P5 than the nearest other G5, it's nowhere near a reality. Best that can be said right now is that, on the field, the AAC has achieved a 'tweener' status, neither "P" nor "G", in a class of its own.

(07-22-2018 06:15 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(07-22-2018 05:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Ah, another scheme from a single American Athletic fan to somehow fill your deficiencies by conning some MWC schools to fly across country to play a bunch of schools in the Southeast.

FIFY

Thing is, there was a time when two far west schools - Boise and SDSU - were willing to do just that, they joined the Big East.

Of course, they bailed when the money turned out not to be right. But if the AAC gets a significant boost to TV money, it could be right again.

Or maybe not, maybe they bailed not just because of the $$$ but also because they thought they were joining a "power" league and turned out they weren't. That won't change.

But the point is, the notion isn't completely outlandish, because it has happened before.

For lack of better terminology, G5's exist as "entry level" and "established".

Used to be we were divided as follows in the non-AQ

Established
CUSA (Eastern US)
MWC (Western US)

Entry level
MAC
Sun Belt
WAC

Today
AAC holds a clear role as established

MWC is diluted at the bottom which damages their claim at the role and there simply are not sufficient numbers to fully stock an establishment type league in the west. The same issue exists in the Midwest.

There are more than an adequate number of Eastern and Central time zone programs dispersed across MAC, Sun Belt and CUSA to create a conference that could go toe-to-toe against AAC while MWC lacks the critical mass to do so without heading east.

There does not need to be another G5 conference. There needs to be one less. There are too many teams in the FBS. Some of them need to move down to the FCS or drop football.

Some P5 programs are already moving towards scheduling tougher P5 OOC games and then buying an extra home win over an FCS team, creating fewer bodybag games for G5 programs that rely on them. Programs that can afford to raise player stipends will do that as often as needed to remain competitive in recruiting. Programs will continue to improve facilities. All of this cost money. There are simply some G5 programs that are going to get squeezed out. The G5 programs that are not already adapting to this new reality are setting them programs up for a possible exit out of the FBS. It may take 10 or 15 years, but it is coming. Financial strains are already being reported within some G5 budgets.

Many fans seem to believe that ESPN and Fox will continue to bid on conference packages, because that's what they have been doing lately. But what if they say "no mas"?

What if ESPN decides that in the future, it will only bid for G5 games on an ala carte basis? They'll win some and they'll lose some. But they won't have to pay Tulane, Tulsa, San Jose State, ECU and others more than they are worth just to get a handful of games they really want.

With the long term P5 contracts they already have, they could pretty much fill their broadcast windows with only one or two G5 games a week. They don't need to let G5 conferences dictate anything to them. The concept of conferences "deserving a raise" makes no sense in this context.

(07-22-2018 01:07 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  When the AAC gets about 15m per school per year in its next TV contract it essentially moves out of the g5 and into a tweener position, a type of holding position so to speak, this is not saying a move into the A5 club but a move out of the g5 and into a league of its own
1) this allows the now g4 to add a new conference for all the FCS schools that are wanting to move up to FBS” not stopping any schools from wanting to grow, would be unAmerican”
2) MWC would be next if viewership gets to AAC levels and bigger tv package then they become a tweener conference with the AAC
3) then the cycle continues until there are 5 tweener conferences then this becomes its own league kinda like the A5 is today, two FBS leagues, two FBS champions that will someday have to play each other

4) then the g5 will need a new conference and so on
5) if anyone thinks the A5 will add a team or in this case a conference, it imo will never happen

...all the FCS schools that want to move up? All three?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

(07-24-2018 08:48 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(07-23-2018 10:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  A more likely way to create a new G6 conference is for CUSA to split into 2 different conferences.

Or CUSA and sunbelt deciding they want reorganize into 3 different conferences.

Trying to think of what this might look like:

Southwest Conference (9 Members):

North Texas - CUSA West
Rice - CUSA West
UTEP - CUSA West
UTSA - CUSA West
La Tech - CUSA West
Louisiana Lafayette - Sun Belt
Louisiana Monroe - Sun Belt
Texas State - Sun Belt
New Mexico State - FBS Independent

Eastern Conference (10 Members):

FAU - CUSA East
FIU - CUSA East
Charlotte - CUSA East
Marshall - CUSA East
ODU - CUSA East
Mid Tennessee - CUSA East
Coastal - Sun Belt
Liberty - FBS Independent
James Madison - FCS Call Up
Delaware - FCS Call Up

Sun Belt (10 members):

Southern Miss - CUSA West
UAB - CUSA West
Western Kentucky - CUSA East
App State - Sun Belt
Ark State - Sun Belt
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt
Georgia St - Sun Belt
South Alabama - Sun Belt
Troy - Sun Belt
Jacksonville St - FCS Call Up

Thank you for sorting this out. I was thinking something like this, but without the FCS callups and without NMSU. So basicaly

Southwest Conference (8 Members):

North Texas - CUSA West
Rice - CUSA West
UTEP - CUSA West
UTSA - CUSA West
La Tech - CUSA West
Louisiana Lafayette - Sun Belt
Louisiana Monroe - Sun Belt
Texas State - Sun Belt

Eastern Conference (8 Members):

FAU - CUSA East
FIU - CUSA East
Charlotte - CUSA East
Marshall - CUSA East
ODU - CUSA East
Mid Tennessee - CUSA East
Coastal - Sun Belt
App State - Sun Belt

Sun Belt (8 members):

Southern Miss - CUSA West
UAB - CUSA West
Western Kentucky - CUSA East
Ark State - Sun Belt
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt
Georgia St - Sun Belt
South Alabama - Sun Belt
Troy - Sun Belt

Oh, no question the September 8th games help. And yes two are OTA. But this is not unusual for G5 in September. There will be six or eight such games across the G5 spectrum. Houston landing Arizona is a really nice game. But like UCLA at BYU or some of those ACC schools coming to visit Liberty, or a P12 visits an MWC school, it doesn't fundamentally change the value. All this inventory is relying on the P5 school to provide most of the viewer numbers.

The bulk of the inventory is Tulane-USF, Cincy-Temple, Memphis-UCG, Navy-Tulsa, SMU-ECU, UConn-Houston type match ups (40 plus of 48 games), and most of the controlled OOC games are FCS, MAC, SBC or CUSA opponents (20 such games). Reality check here, these are the games that show the actual drawing power of the AAC, not when a P5 comes to town. This inventory is not worth any premium, and it makes up all but maybe 10 controlled games, and 5 or 6 of those premium games are clustered at the start of September (which is similar to the premium games of BYU and the MWC).

The AAC content after September 8th is very bleak for any programmer. This is why the MAC went to weeknights in NOvember, to get off the Saturday schedule dominated by big games in the SEC, B1G, P12, ACC and B12; games with real Championship value, deep traditions and rivalries. Excepting maybe two or three games that rise to some importance (say two 7-1 AAC schools clash ... could say the same for two 7-1 MWC schools) there is nothing to compel ESPN or any network to bump up such a game to OTA or ESPN (they would probably ask that such a game be moved to 8 PM kickoff and maybe moved to Friday Night, since they are not going to bump an SEC or B12 game). But they do that now already. So why pay more?

That really is the question and situation you guys refuse to face, the conference schedule is not compelling compared to even the ACC.

(07-24-2018 08:48 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(07-23-2018 10:21 PM)goofus Wrote:  A more likely way to create a new G6 conference is for CUSA to split into 2 different conferences.

Or CUSA and sunbelt deciding they want reorganize into 3 different conferences.

Trying to think of what this might look like:

Southwest Conference (9 Members):

North Texas - CUSA West
Rice - CUSA West
UTEP - CUSA West
UTSA - CUSA West
La Tech - CUSA West
Louisiana Lafayette - Sun Belt
Louisiana Monroe - Sun Belt
Texas State - Sun Belt
New Mexico State - FBS Independent

Eastern Conference (10 Members):

FAU - CUSA East
FIU - CUSA East
Charlotte - CUSA East
Marshall - CUSA East
ODU - CUSA East
Mid Tennessee - CUSA East
Coastal - Sun Belt
Liberty - FBS Independent
James Madison - FCS Call Up
Delaware - FCS Call Up

Sun Belt (10 members):

Southern Miss - CUSA West
UAB - CUSA West
Western Kentucky - CUSA East
App State - Sun Belt
Ark State - Sun Belt
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt
Georgia St - Sun Belt
South Alabama - Sun Belt
Troy - Sun Belt
Jacksonville St - FCS Call Up

I would suggest breaking them into the following more regional Western & Eastern based conferences:

SWC CUSA

S. Miss MTSU
Louisiana WKU
Rice Marshall
Texas State App State
UTSA ODU
Troy Charlotte
S. Alabama GA State
UAB GA Southern
ULM Coastal
Ark State Liberty (add)
LA Tech FAU
N. Texas FIU

UTEP and NMSU are geographical outliers for either conference and belong in the MWC.