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(02-15-2018 10:15 AM)skylinecat Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 10:04 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  Question: which one travels better to NCAA tourney, dominant offense or dominant defense ?

I know you need to play both, just wonder which one of the above would be better.

For the tourney, I'd say starting with a dominant offense is better than starting with a dominant defense. All teams typically pick it up on D in the tournament, because a large part of being good on D is hustle based and kids don't slack off on plays in the tourney. A good offense, on the other hand, isn't as easy to turn on and off.

Playing good defense is combination of a few things, and the hustle part is easily the most correctable part of it.

There is also a skill to it as well, knowing when to rotate, how to get in good position without fouling, understanding your opponents souting report, etc. This is harder to correct quickly, this is stuff that needs to be learned over a longer period of time. UC and Virginia do a good job with this part.

Then there is the physical aspect to it (size, lenth, and athletecism. This is the part that can't be taught. Teams like 99 UConn, 2004 UConn, 2006 UConn, 2008 Kansas, 2012 UK, 2015 UK all fit into this category. I'm not sure how schooled thsee teams actually were on D, but they were able to overwhelm other teams with shear size and athletecism.

(02-15-2018 05:10 PM)jarr Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 10:15 AM)skylinecat Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 10:04 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  Question: which one travels better to NCAA tourney, dominant offense or dominant defense ?

I know you need to play both, just wonder which one of the above would be better.

For the tourney, I'd say starting with a dominant offense is better than starting with a dominant defense. All teams typically pick it up on D in the tournament, because a large part of being good on D is hustle based and kids don't slack off on plays in the tourney. A good offense, on the other hand, isn't as easy to turn on and off.

Playing good defense is combination of a few things, and the hustle part is easily the most correctable part of it.

There is also a skill to it as well, knowing when to rotate, how to get in good position without fouling, understanding your opponents souting report, etc. This is harder to correct quickly, this is stuff that needs to be learned over a longer period of time. UC and Virginia do a good job with this part.

Then there is the physical aspect to it (size, lenth, and athletecism. This is the part that can't be taught. Teams like 99 UConn, 2004 UConn, 2006 UConn, 2008 Kansas, 2012 UK, 2015 UK all fit into this category. I'm not sure how schooled thsee teams actually were on D, but they were able to overwhelm other teams with shear size and athletecism.

Yes and in addition to all the good stuff from bearcatman and bearcatmark, I go back to all the post-game Huggs lectures. If you play defense, you'll be in the game every night even if your offense falters as it inevitably will. It's a lot more tenable to play very good/great defense for 6 games in a row than it is to do on offense for that long. Some night(s) the shots just aren't going to fall for you even if you get some good looks. And that's when you'll go home if you can't play D whether it's in the 1st/2nd round or in the Final 4.

Good defense is the easiest thing to become good at. Good defense requires stamina, determination and some skill.

(02-15-2018 12:57 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 12:26 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  All you need to know is that since the stat was tracked starting in 2002, no team with an adjD rating of greater than #21 in the country has won the title, and only one (UNC in 2009) fell outside the Top 15. If you don't have an elite defense, you aren't winning the title.

I have UNC as 18 in 2009. But yes... Only 1 champion has had a kenpom adjusted defense outside the top 15, none outside the top 20. (that's 15/16 being top 15 kenpom defenses)

There have been only 3 champions with an adjusted offense outside the top 15 (2 of them are UConn in 2011 and 2014 with 2014 UConn finishing all the way down at 39).

75% (12/16) of our champions have been top 15 in both adjusted defense and adjusted offense. Balance

To add to that. The average final four team has an adj O of 18.5 and an adj D of 14.5.

54 out of 64 (84.3%) final four teams have had an adjusted defense of 25 or better. 46 of 64 (71.8%) have had an adjusted offense of 25 or better. 40 of those have had a top 25 adjusted offense and adjusted defense (62.5%). Defense is a little more important, but balance is easily the biggest thing to look for.

So, right now, only two teams fit the top 15 in O and D criteria. Mich.St. and Purdue. Damn.

(02-15-2018 06:15 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 12:57 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-15-2018 12:26 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  All you need to know is that since the stat was tracked starting in 2002, no team with an adjD rating of greater than #21 in the country has won the title, and only one (UNC in 2009) fell outside the Top 15. If you don't have an elite defense, you aren't winning the title.

I have UNC as 18 in 2009. But yes... Only 1 champion has had a kenpom adjusted defense outside the top 15, none outside the top 20. (that's 15/16 being top 15 kenpom defenses)

There have been only 3 champions with an adjusted offense outside the top 15 (2 of them are UConn in 2011 and 2014 with 2014 UConn finishing all the way down at 39).

75% (12/16) of our champions have been top 15 in both adjusted defense and adjusted offense. Balance

To add to that. The average final four team has an adj O of 18.5 and an adj D of 14.5.

54 out of 64 (84.3%) final four teams have had an adjusted defense of 25 or better. 46 of 64 (71.8%) have had an adjusted offense of 25 or better. 40 of those have had a top 25 adjusted offense and adjusted defense (62.5%). Defense is a little more important, but balance is easily the biggest thing to look for.

So, right now, only two teams fit the top 15 in O and D criteria. Mich.St. and Purdue. Damn.

Yea. It's a weird year that way. It's why I like UC's chances a lot because their defense is elite elite and I think the offense is actually better than the numbers indicate.

I like Gonzaga and UNC a lot again too. I think both could make nice runs with a good draw. Ohio State is another team that has the balance to be a real threat.

Purdue loses to Wisconsin and Ohio State is down 30 in the second half at Penn State.

(02-15-2018 09:25 PM)The Big O Wrote:  Purdue loses to Wisconsin and Ohio State is down 30 in the second half at Penn State.

Purdue has all of sudden gone into a funk now losing three in a row.

I said at the time that UCF would end up a lot better this season after Tacko got hurt. They look really sharp against SMU. Actually move the ball rather than standing and watching an 8 foot statute stand in the lane. They may be a tough out in their home town for the conference tournament.

northwestern currently beating Michigan State 30-8

(02-17-2018 02:39 PM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  northwestern currently beating Michigan State 30-8

That's not what great teams do.

Big 10 not having a good week. 43-16 now, I guess MSU still has time to come back, but they better get started soon.

(02-17-2018 02:39 PM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  northwestern currently beating Michigan State 30-8

43-17 now. mich st is being dominated!

(02-17-2018 02:51 PM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  

(02-17-2018 02:39 PM)Tymanh99 Wrote:  northwestern currently beating Michigan State 30-8

43-17 now. mich st is being dominated!

2nd half is going to be all about NW holding on, they are 8-12 from three, no way they can maintain that pace.

In the last 2 weeks Villanova, Duke, Purdue, ohio state, virginia and kansas all have taken worse losses than uc did Thursday. Michigan state looks like they're about to join that list.

(02-17-2018 02:55 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  In the last 2 weeks Villanova, Duke, Purdue, ohio state, virginia and kansas all have taken worse losses than uc did Thursday. Michigan state looks like they're about to join that list.

That is why this Sunday is so important to keep the status quo of a 2 seed. I believe that 30-4, 16-2, conference tournament champions also keeps UC at the 2 line.

(02-17-2018 03:00 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(02-17-2018 02:55 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  In the last 2 weeks Villanova, Duke, Purdue, ohio state, virginia and kansas all have taken worse losses than uc did Thursday. Michigan state looks like they're about to join that list.

That is why this Sunday is so important to keep the status quo of a 2 seed. I believe that 30-4, 16-2, conference tournament champions also keeps UC at the 2 line.

I absolutely agree

This seems to be trending into the type of all out chaos where UCONN and UK played for the title as 7&8 seeds. For our sake I hope not.

Michigan State is going to blow out Northwestern. Lead almost gone

(02-17-2018 02:55 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  In the last 2 weeks Villanova, Duke, Purdue, ohio state, virginia and kansas all have taken worse losses than uc did Thursday. Michigan state looks like they're about to join that list.

The teams you named all pull more weight than UC in voters eyes. Those teams could lose 3-4 games and UC could lose 2. The voters will drop UC farther than the others.

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With 5:39 left in 2nd half, NW has scored 4 second half points. After scoring 49 in the first half. A complete collapse.

(02-17-2018 03:57 PM)skyblade Wrote:  With 5:39 left in 2nd half, NW has scored 4 second half points. After scoring 49 in the first half. A complete collapse.

What a choke job.

Shooting 9% in the second half. And it's not cold shooting. Everything they're getting is a horrible shot, can't run any offense