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Of course we are at #11 right now. That’s a 3

honestly xavier probably has a 1 seed resume by the normal criteria. They are the luckiest top 50 team in the country according to kenpom but they keep pulling out these close games and are wracking up tier 1 and tier 2 wins(their best being against us). You'd love to be the 1 seed in their region because their predictive metrics don't match their resume but they have a great tournament resume.

(02-03-2018 08:47 PM)Recluse1 Wrote:  Chin up fellas, they gotta play @Butler and @Creighton next and even with their win tonight; Duke and Kansas both lost to unranked opponents. We're likely moving up regardless. Purdue escaped a loss against Rutgers by 2, in a contest that no one saw coming.

Agreed; X can enjoy its 15 minutes of fame as a projected #1 seed but I'll be really surprised if that holds up. It's still a long journey from here to March.

But, hey, Ken Broo was impressed enough to pop off about it on 9 last night.

X usually gets easy draws! They tend to draw teams that are average at best offensively and who are football schools whose fans don't travel for the NCAA Tournament. They consistently benefit from upsets playing 14 and 15 seeds in the 2nd round...6, 7, and 10 seeds in the Sweet 16. They hardly ever get sent out West and they tend to avoid the Blue Bloods.

While I imagine I am not the only one envisioning a UC second round game looming with Kentucky/Ohio State this year.

(02-04-2018 10:55 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  While I imagine I am not the only one envisioning a UC second round game looming with Kentucky/Ohio State this year.

I'd love to give a dose of revenge to both of them but playing UK in Nashville would be a big home court advantage for them.

My guess is this year if those "other" teams see us in their bracket they will say, "Oh shat!" "Not them."

(02-04-2018 11:08 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 10:55 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  While I imagine I am not the only one envisioning a UC second round game looming with Kentucky/Ohio State this year.

I'd love to give a dose of revenge to both of them but playing UK in Nashville would be a big home court advantage for them.

If UC would get UK, It actuall would be a game we'd want it to be out west to mitigate UK's home court advantage within any drivable distance from KY.

Bluenecks spend their tax refunds and EIC to hitch up the trailer and follow the Wildcats in March.

(02-03-2018 11:26 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  So we should be #6 this week right behind X at #5. Any bets we’re 7 behind Duke?

Yeah... I think it's unlikely that we vault almighty Duke. It is what it is.

Duke just lost to an abysmal St. John's team. I have a hard time believing they'll only drop two spots.

(02-04-2018 11:08 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 10:55 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  While I imagine I am not the only one envisioning a UC second round game looming with Kentucky/Ohio State this year.

I'd love to give a dose of revenge to both of them but playing UK in Nashville would be a big home court advantage for them.

Nashville good, Kentucky bad. Too expensive of a ticket.

(02-04-2018 10:55 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  While I imagine I am not the only one envisioning a UC second round game looming with Kentucky/Ohio State this year.

My wild assed projection is UC gets screwed on the seed line and gets WVU in the 4/5 second round game in Pittsburgh.

We haven't beaten UK since FDR was in office. If there is a year to do it, it's this year. I'm not sure they are a great matchup, but I say bring them on.

(02-04-2018 01:27 PM)jarr Wrote:  We haven't beaten UK since FDR was in office. If there is a year to do it, it's this year. I'm not sure they are a great matchup, but I say bring them on.

has 2002 written all over it

(02-04-2018 02:34 PM)Lush Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 01:27 PM)jarr Wrote:  We haven't beaten UK since FDR was in office. If there is a year to do it, it's this year. I'm not sure they are a great matchup, but I say bring them on.

has 2002 written all over it

They don't have the firepower of that UCLA squad or the intelligence.
There is no easy route to the second weekend, but this squad is more than rugged enough to make the trek in my opinion.

(02-04-2018 07:50 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  honestly xavier probably has a 1 seed resume by the normal criteria. They are the luckiest top 50 team in the country according to kenpom but they keep pulling out these close games and are wracking up tier 1 and tier 2 wins(their best being against us). You'd love to be the 1 seed in their region because their predictive metrics don't match their resume but they have a great tournament resume.

I love predictive analytics, but they have multiple Achilles heels. One of those weaknesses is they assume a team is who they are (channeling Dennis Green) each minute they're on the court--regardless of score, and regardless of quality of opponent.

What has killed Xavier in predictive systems this season is that they might be the worst elite team in the country at playing with a 15- to 20-point lead, and at consistently playing down to level of their competition.

No doubt that's a dangerous game for them, as evidenced by their "Luck" factor, allowing inferior opponents to remain in reach until very late in the game before stepping on the gas. And it's not great for X fans who wouldn't mind an occasional laugher against crappier opponents.

It's also not great at all for their predictive metrics rankings.

But this same Xavier team that has squeaked by Marshall, Middle Tenn. St., DePaul, St. John's (twice) and Georgetown, is also the same team that waxed Creighton by 20+, beat UC by 13 (being up by 26), beat Baylor by 13, Butler by 13, Seton Hall by 9 on the road, beat Marquette by 19 (and also beat them at Marquette).

Again, I wish they would just go ahead and destroy weaker teams from the opening tip, but that's unfortunately their MO. I think it makes them one of the worst teams to judge by their Kenpom numbers, even though those numbers are quite good.

(02-04-2018 04:37 PM)Recluse1 Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 02:34 PM)Lush Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 01:27 PM)jarr Wrote:  We haven't beaten UK since FDR was in office. If there is a year to do it, it's this year. I'm not sure they are a great matchup, but I say bring them on.

has 2002 written all over it

They don't have the firepower of that UCLA squad or the intelligence.
There is no easy route to the second weekend, but this squad is more than rugged enough to make the trek in my opinion.

Bolded, so true. This past decade UC has been eliminated by Harvard, Creighton and St. Joseph's--not exactly giant killers. Alternately, traditional elites Kentucky and UCLA have denied UC admission to the second weekend festivities. So game two (Saturday or Sunday) will likely be an undervalued mid-major that caught fire or a P5 team that underperformed in the regular season but possesses some impressive talent. Having said all that, I think this UC team is up to the task of beating teams with either of those profiles. So I won't lose sleep in February over seed lines. Count on UC being seeded lower than any of us expect or feel is justified. Then we'll enjoy it all the more when Gary Clark and company prove the committee wrong.

(02-04-2018 12:41 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Duke just lost to an abysmal St. John's team. I have a hard time believing they'll only drop two spots.

They are Duke. They could lose by 100+ points to the "School of the Blind" and they would still get ranked ahead of us.

It doesn't help that we didn't put a gaudy-looking beating on UConn either. Qualitatively, we'll say it was a "good win" and "not as close as the score looked..." but quantitatively it looks like we could not pull away from a struggling UConn team.

And it really doesn't matter at this point... 6 or 7. As long as UC continues to win, it'll sort itself out in the end. Right now we are settled comfortably in the 2-seed area. One poll-position isn't going to change that either way as far as this week goes. So, I'm not moping, here. But I won't be a bit surprised if (1) UC is ranked behind Duke, and even if (2) UC stays stationary at #8 and some other program vaults us in the polls.

And hopefully I'm wrong and X is at 5 and we're at 6 with Duke in our rear-view mirror.

I would not want to play UK. Thats a mercurial team, man. They're the type to lose to Vandy, come back and beat Florida by 25.

(02-04-2018 06:45 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(02-04-2018 12:41 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Duke just lost to an abysmal St. John's team. I have a hard time believing they'll only drop two spots.

They are Duke. They could lose by 100+ points to the "School of the Blind" and they would still get ranked ahead of us.

It doesn't help that we didn't put a gaudy-looking beating on UConn either. Qualitatively, we'll say it was a "good win" and "not as close as the score looked..." but quantitatively it looks like we could not pull away from a struggling UConn team.

And it really doesn't matter at this point... 6 or 7. As long as UC continues to win, it'll sort itself out in the end. Right now we are settled comfortably in the 2-seed area. One poll-position isn't going to change that either way as far as this week goes. So, I'm not moping, here. But I won't be a bit surprised if (1) UC is ranked behind Duke, and even if (2) UC stays stationary at #8 and some other program vaults us in the polls.

And hopefully I'm wrong and X is at 5 and we're at 6 with Duke in our rear-view mirror.

No chance Duke stays above UC.