I don't think UCF is anywhere near NCAA caliber. They are just so limited even with Taylor.

But they do have Sideshow Bob on their team and the committee seems to do backflips sometimes to get great stories in if possible so you never know if they put together a string of wins against the mid to bottom of the conference and then win a couple on their home court in the conference tournament.

I don't see anyway 5 teams get in.

If SMU doesn't **** themselves down the stretch they should get in.

Houston has some work to do. UCF needs to go on a tear to get in or win the conference tourney.

A couple of things to watch during the rest of the season:

UC's non-conference is slowly climbing and is now is in the 190's. We can thank Buffalo's early domination of the MAC but can't forget that Savannah State, Western Carolina, and Pine Bluff are near the top of their low-major conferences. If that number stays under 200 the rest of the season and UC's overall SOS is no worse than 80 then I don't believe they would lose a seed line. WVU and Michigan State are behind UC in the non-conference SOS ratings and the Spartans actually project to have a lower SOS overall.

Speaking of scheduling, it is the one reason why Houston could be in trouble on Selection Sunday. Their non-conference SOS is over 250 which is in the danger range. They do have good Kenpom numbers or at least good ones for a likely bubble team.

Right now the national perspective can broken down into four groups.

High-Major 50 percent of more earning NCAA bids.
1. Big XII
2. Big East
3. ACC.
4. SEC

High-Majors Multiple bids (3 to 5 likely)
5. Big Ten
6 PAC-12
7. American

Mid-Majors (1 to 2 bids)
8. WCC
9. Mountain West
10. A-10
11. Missouri Valley (Valley is rated 8th in the RPI but overall this how I believe the committee views the top team)
12. C-USA (WKU and to smaller extent MTSU have a shot)

Everyone Else (1 bid league)

(01-18-2018 03:17 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  A couple of things to watch during the rest of the season:

UC's non-conference is slowly climbing and is now is in the 190's. We can thank Buffalo's early domination of the MAC but can't forget that Savannah State, Western Carolina, and Pine Bluff are near the top of their low-major conferences. If that number stays under 200 the rest of the season and UC's overall SOS is no worse than 80 then I don't believe they would lose a seed line. WVU and Michigan State are behind UC in the non-conference SOS ratings and the Spartans actually project to have a lower SOS overall.

Speaking of scheduling, it is the one reason why Houston could be in trouble on Selection Sunday. Their non-conference SOS is over 250 which is in the danger range. They do have good Kenpom numbers or at least good ones for a likely bubble team.

Right now the national perspective can broken down into four groups.

High-Major 50 percent of more earning NCAA bids.
1. Big XII
2. Big East
3. ACC.
4. SEC

High-Majors Multiple bids (3 to 5 likely)
5. Big Ten
6 PAC-12
7. American

Mid-Majors (1 to 2 bids)
8. WCC
9. Mountain West
10. A-10
11. Missouri Valley (Valley is rated 8th in the RPI but overall this how I believe the committee views the top team)
12. C-USA (WKU and to smaller extent MTSU have a shot)

Everyone Else (1 bid league)

Good information and analysis bearcatlawjd2.

1 or 2 more wins and ECU would qualify for the 14 and under tournament at the local YMCA. Sadly, they would get a very low seed.

(01-19-2018 09:45 AM)QSECOFR Wrote:  1 or 2 more wins and ECU would qualify for the 14 and under tournament at the local YMCA. Sadly, they would get a very low seed.

So what does that say about USF? (Coach Gregory's hands wringing)

(01-19-2018 10:31 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 09:45 AM)QSECOFR Wrote:  1 or 2 more wins and ECU would qualify for the 14 and under tournament at the local YMCA. Sadly, they would get a very low seed.

So what does that say about USF? (Coach Gregory's hands wringing)

USF is in the last 4 out list for the Y.

Don't care about the conference at this point. As long as we're at the 4 line or above and have a higher seed that Xavier and Tennessee, then I'll be happy because we would presumably be in Nashville.

(01-19-2018 11:02 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Don't care about the conference at this point. As long as we're at the 4 line or above and have a higher seed that Xavier and Tennessee, then I'll be happy because we would presumably be in Nashville.

As a 4 seed who really knows. Remember 2 top 4 seeds will be in Boise, 2 will be in San Diego.

Given there are locations in Pittsburgh, Nashville, and detroit I'd hope UC ended up there...just depends on who is seeded above us on the S curve. Get a 2 or 3 seed we're almost guaranteed 1 of those 3 locations.

(01-19-2018 10:38 AM)QSECOFR Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 10:31 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 09:45 AM)QSECOFR Wrote:  1 or 2 more wins and ECU would qualify for the 14 and under tournament at the local YMCA. Sadly, they would get a very low seed.

So what does that say about USF? (Coach Gregory's hands wringing)

USF is in the last 4 out list for the Y.

Battling with "Double Dribbling Down our Legs" and "The Rainmakers" for the final seed.

(01-19-2018 11:07 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 11:02 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Don't care about the conference at this point. As long as we're at the 4 line or above and have a higher seed that Xavier and Tennessee, then I'll be happy because we would presumably be in Nashville.

As a 4 seed who really knows. Remember 2 top 4 seeds will be in Boise, 2 will be in San Diego.

Given there are locations in Pittsburgh, Nashville, and detroit I'd hope UC ended up there...just depends on who is seeded above us on the S curve. Get a 2 or 3 seed we're almost guaranteed 1 of those 3 locations.

And Gonzaga and Arizona State aren't helping our chances of having more proximate likewise seeds. If we get up to the 3-line and still get shipped out there, there will probably be some explaining needed....personally, I would love Detroit, but I don't think we're getting above MSU or Purdue and we would need to jump WVU to get into Pittsburgh, that's why I think Nashville is our only option.

(01-19-2018 11:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 11:07 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 11:02 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  Don't care about the conference at this point. As long as we're at the 4 line or above and have a higher seed that Xavier and Tennessee, then I'll be happy because we would presumably be in Nashville.

As a 4 seed who really knows. Remember 2 top 4 seeds will be in Boise, 2 will be in San Diego.

Given there are locations in Pittsburgh, Nashville, and detroit I'd hope UC ended up there...just depends on who is seeded above us on the S curve. Get a 2 or 3 seed we're almost guaranteed 1 of those 3 locations.

And Gonzaga and Arizona State aren't helping our chances of having more proximate likewise seeds. If we get up to the 3-line and still get shipped out there, there will probably be some explaining needed....personally, I would love Detroit, but I don't think we're getting above MSU or Purdue and we would need to jump WVU to get into Pittsburgh, that's why I think Nashville is our only option.

Yea... we're not getting shipped to SD or Boise if we have a 3 seed or better. As a 4 seed it could certainly happen given the lack of quality west teams (I still think Arizona will be a 3 or better when it's all said and done and take 1 SD spot). As of right now Nashville definitely looks like our most likely option for a close landing spot. Nice that 3 are in 5 hours or less driving distance though.

Just saw that AAC has 9 schools in top 100 RPI. More than BE, B12, and B10.

(01-19-2018 01:23 PM)JackieTreehorn Wrote:  Just saw that AAC has 9 schools in top 100 RPI. More than BE, B12, and B10.

The RPI is awful, but that could really play to UC's advantage with seeding. RPI seems to really overvalue some of the teams in the middle of the AAC. That will give UC more chances at Tier 1 and Tier 2 wins.

The RPI seems to really undervalue UC and Wichita State, but quite honestly, you're own ranking is less important to the committee when it comes to RPI anyways and Wichita State is going to be a tier 1 game regardless.

ESPN BPI has the AAC at #6, ahead of the Pac-12. As others have said, looks like the middle of the conference is slightly better this year.

My bigger concern is that we go 1-2 against Wichita like we did with SMU last year. If we play out to 2-1 against them and take care of business the rest of the way (like we nearly did last year) we should be able to snag a top 4 seed.

(01-19-2018 02:45 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  ESPN BPI has the AAC at #6, ahead of the Pac-12. As others have said, looks like the middle of the conference is slightly better this year.

My bigger concern is that we go 1-2 against Wichita like we did with SMU last year. If we play out to 2-1 against them and take care of business the rest of the way (like we nearly did last year) we should be able to snag a top 4 seed.

If we run the table except one loss to wsu we'll be a 2 seed

(01-19-2018 03:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(01-19-2018 02:45 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  ESPN BPI has the AAC at #6, ahead of the Pac-12. As others have said, looks like the middle of the conference is slightly better this year.

My bigger concern is that we go 1-2 against Wichita like we did with SMU last year. If we play out to 2-1 against them and take care of business the rest of the way (like we nearly did last year) we should be able to snag a top 4 seed.

If we run the table except one loss to wsu we'll be a 2 seed

Hell...with the way the top seeds are falling on a consistent basis, if we had a 31-3 record with 4 Top 50 RPI wins and 14-3 record against the RPI Top 100, we could get a 1-seed.

Yeah, tall order obviously but there is an overriding sense that Mick has sorta figured out how to avoid dropping these trap games along the way. I'm sure we'll be tested by Houston or SMU but it's really not out of the question for us to go on a run similar to last season.

Palm's latest bracket has UC as a 4 seed, WSU 5 seed and SMU first four out.

Palm, Jerry

(01-19-2018 01:23 PM)JackieTreehorn Wrote:  Just saw that AAC has 9 schools in top 100 RPI. More than BE, B12, and B10.

Yep, beat me to it: