We are on a three game winning streak and we are climbing the AAC standings. Tubby stated previously , ".... I think Louisville is the type of team we’re going to run into in postseason play.”

I figure we will need to win the AAC Tourney to earn an NCAA bid unless we somehow upset Cincy and WSU and win a large proportion of the remaining games.

An NIT bid is more feasible, IMO. According to Source, "Beyond that (exceptions), the highest RPI for at-large consideration is right around 100, which makes sense considering that there are 100 teams between the NCAA Tournament (68) and NIT (32)." Please keep in mind that the NIT hands out auto-bids to regular season conference winners who do not make the NCAA Tourney.

What say you?

If we get an ncaa bid, tubbys seat in the hof is reserved.

I say you are dreaming.

Just to make the NIT we'd have to beat SMU and Houston, all the other teams except WSU and Cincinnati. In fact, we'd probably have to beat either Cincinnati or Wichita State. Of course, just win the tournament and you're in, right?

We are 162 Ken Pom
128 Sagarin
Not even a mention in bracketology (Houston now last 4 in, SMU now first four out)

NCAA, absolutely not.

NIT, probably not. Like I had posted in a previous thread a while back, the WORST rated RPI/KenPom at large NIT teams were in the 80's/90's. http://csnbbs.com/thread-838446-post-149...id14933133

Memphis is currently 162 at kenpom.

Memphis' RPI SOS will take a dip with the fact that six of their remaining 13 AAC games are vs. 100+ rip teams--with four of those close to 300+ rip teams (ECU and UCF).

RPI forecast predicts Memphis at 18-13 (9-9 in the AAC) and finishing with an RPI of 125.

So, no.

Too early to tell. But an NIT bid would seem to be the more realistic goal.

(01-15-2018 10:01 AM)tigerlands Wrote:  Too early to tell. But an NIT bid would seem to be the more realistic goal.

It's not too early to tell, in fact one can tell by looking at historical NIT selection trends and projecting what Memphis needs to do to achieve the baseline standard for possible inclusion.

Assuming between 90-100 is the lowest feasible RPI needed to get an NIT at-large, Memphis will probably need to finish the regular season 20-11. (a 19-12 projects to a 99 rpi).

At 12-6, Memphis will likely need to go 8-5 the rest of the way to get in the conversation.

Frankly that is feasible because there are still five games that Memphis should wing easily: 4 vs. UCF/ECU and @Tulane.

Then, pick off three of vs. Houston, 2 vs. UConn, @Tulsa, vs. UCF.

I'll concede losses to @Cinci, @SMU, vs. WSU.

If we 8-5 or 9-4 with wins over Cincy, WSU, and Houston, we are in. 6 road games left. Go 2-4 in those games and win home games, we have a very good shot.

I wonder how much the attendance woes will play a part in the NIT's decision to choose Memphis?

If Memphis is getting an actual 3,500 to come to the games, will more than that pony up some $$ to go see Memphis play Western Kentucky or Murray State in an NIT game?

(01-15-2018 11:26 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  I wonder how much the attendance woes will play a part in the NIT's decision to choose Memphis?

If Memphis is getting an actual 3,500 to come to the games, will more than that pony up some $$ to go see Memphis play Western Kentucky or Murray State in an NIT game?

If we keep winning, people will show up.

But it’s highly unlikely we’ll play in the postseason.

If they make the NIT I will buy myself a beer.

(01-15-2018 11:26 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  I wonder how much the attendance woes will play a part in the NIT's decision to choose Memphis?

If Memphis is getting an actual 3,500 to come to the games, will more than that pony up some $$ to go see Memphis play Western Kentucky or Murray State in an NIT game?

I think if we make the NIT then you will get at least 8,000 actual attendance and maybe even 10,000 as a celebration of what the team started out as and how it ended up. We will probably get 10,000 for Cincinnati, and if we beat them that will give us momentum to pull in better crowds.

Basketball is now like football was 10 years ago. Attendance will be based on what the team does the game before.

(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)cmt Wrote:  I say you are dreaming.

Just to make the NIT we'd have to beat SMU and Houston, all the other teams except WSU and Cincinnati. In fact, we'd probably have to beat either Cincinnati or Wichita State. Of course, just win the tournament and you're in, right?

We are 162 Ken Pom
128 Sagarin
Not even a mention in bracketology (Houston now last 4 in, SMU now first four out)

The committee doesn't look at Ken Pom or Sagarin.

(01-15-2018 09:52 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  NCAA, absolutely not.

NIT, probably not. Like I had posted in a previous thread a while back, the WORST rated RPI/KenPom at large NIT teams were in the 80's/90's. http://csnbbs.com/thread-838446-post-149...id14933133

Memphis is currently 162 at kenpom.

Memphis' RPI SOS will take a dip with the fact that six of their remaining 13 AAC games are vs. 100+ rip teams--with four of those close to 300+ rip teams (ECU and UCF).

RPI forecast predicts Memphis at 18-13 (9-9 in the AAC) and finishing with an RPI of 125.

So, no.

Boom

We've lowered the bar so much that beating crap teams makes us excited about farfetched NIT dreams.

(01-15-2018 01:40 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  We've lowered the bar so much that beating crap teams makes us excited about farfetched NIT dreams.

Yep. What are we even talking about here?

(01-15-2018 01:28 PM)TOGC Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)cmt Wrote:  I say you are dreaming.

Just to make the NIT we'd have to beat SMU and Houston, all the other teams except WSU and Cincinnati. In fact, we'd probably have to beat either Cincinnati or Wichita State. Of course, just win the tournament and you're in, right?

We are 162 Ken Pom
128 Sagarin
Not even a mention in bracketology (Houston now last 4 in, SMU now first four out)

The committee doesn't look at Ken Pom or Sagarin.

Wrong again.

(01-15-2018 01:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 01:28 PM)TOGC Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)cmt Wrote:  I say you are dreaming.

Just to make the NIT we'd have to beat SMU and Houston, all the other teams except WSU and Cincinnati. In fact, we'd probably have to beat either Cincinnati or Wichita State. Of course, just win the tournament and you're in, right?

We are 162 Ken Pom
128 Sagarin
Not even a mention in bracketology (Houston now last 4 in, SMU now first four out)

The committee doesn't look at Ken Pom or Sagarin.

Wrong again.

It does seem to happen a bit, doesn't it?

(01-15-2018 01:43 PM)jgardne Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 01:40 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  We've lowered the bar so much that beating crap teams makes us excited about farfetched NIT dreams.

Yep. What are we even talking about here?

Yep this is a real issue.

No.

Is it possible yes...Is it probable NO