(01-15-2018 01:28 PM)TOGC Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 09:33 AM)cmt Wrote:  I say you are dreaming.

Just to make the NIT we'd have to beat SMU and Houston, all the other teams except WSU and Cincinnati. In fact, we'd probably have to beat either Cincinnati or Wichita State. Of course, just win the tournament and you're in, right?

We are 162 Ken Pom
128 Sagarin
Not even a mention in bracketology (Houston now last 4 in, SMU now first four out)

The committee doesn't look at Ken Pom or Sagarin.

Whether or not they look at them, you can. Get down below 100 and your chances and slim and none. 68 and 32 equals, oh, I don't know, 100? Maybe we can play in that other one, CSI? I guess, if we end the season winning a lot.

(01-15-2018 01:40 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  We've lowered the bar so much that beating crap teams makes us excited about farfetched NIT dreams.

You seem surprised. It’s been quite a while since we’ve had a very good team.

(01-15-2018 11:06 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 10:01 AM)tigerlands Wrote:  Too early to tell. But an NIT bid would seem to be the more realistic goal.

It's not too early to tell, in fact one can tell by looking at historical NIT selection trends and projecting what Memphis needs to do to achieve the baseline standard for possible inclusion.

Assuming between 90-100 is the lowest feasible RPI needed to get an NIT at-large, Memphis will probably need to finish the regular season 20-11. (a 19-12 projects to a 99 rpi).

At 12-6, Memphis will likely need to go 8-5 the rest of the way to get in the conversation.

Frankly that is feasible because there are still five games that Memphis should wing easily: 4 vs. UCF/ECU and @Tulane.

Then, pick off three of vs. Houston, 2 vs. UConn, @Tulsa, vs. UCF.

I'll concede losses to @Cinci, @SMU, vs. WSU.

Sad that you are dissecting and prognosticating what miracles will have to occur for us to get an NIT invite. Not Invited Invitational, Not Interested Invitational, Now Irrelevant Invitational. If it ain't 'AA, it don't matter. And God, please strike down the idiot that accepts a CBIT or whatever other horsesh*t "postseason" tournament exists. Have we really sunk to the level of participation trophy tournaments vs the real thing?

The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

(01-15-2018 05:03 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

(01-15-2018 05:10 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:03 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:10 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:03 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:10 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:03 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

(01-15-2018 05:57 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:10 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:03 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The NIT is feasible. There is still a lot of basketball to play. Will we continue the trajectory of the last 3 games? Will we fold over the final 5 weeks like last year? The metrics say we still have a lot of work to do. Good news is that we made up about 40 spots in Sagarin over the past 2 weeks.

If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

Slapped around by LR?

You sure you were at the game?

Memphis spotted them an early lead and proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.

Now, THAT is being slapped around.

(01-15-2018 06:06 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:57 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:10 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  If they win the next 3 then I we can start talking.

Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

Slapped around by LR?

You sure you were at the game?

Memphis spotted them an early lead and proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.

Now, THAT is being slapped around.

You must've been watching wrasslin.

http://csnbbs.com/thread-833475-page-12.html

(01-15-2018 06:24 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 06:06 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:57 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

Slapped around by LR?

You sure you were at the game?

Memphis spotted them an early lead and proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.

Now, THAT is being slapped around.

You must've been watching wrasslin.

http://csnbbs.com/thread-833475-page-12.html

Lol... lots of doom and gloom on that thread!

(01-15-2018 06:32 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 06:24 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 06:06 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:57 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

Slapped around by LR?

You sure you were at the game?

Memphis spotted them an early lead and proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.

Now, THAT is being slapped around.

You must've been watching wrasslin.

http://csnbbs.com/thread-833475-page-12.html

Lol... lots of doom and gloom on that thread!

"Get him a one-way bus ticket!" I know!

Getting beaten by Cincinnati surprised no one (maybe the margin, but nothing else) and probably changed zero opinions. Joe-freakin-1 and 450bench bailed on Tubby after the Little Rock game, and if that doesn't do it for you, I can't help you! That was a disaster!

Feasible? NCAA, no. NIT, maybe.

But forget feasible for a second. We looked ok against Temple, and we can make some hay in the next few games...
I don't think we do it, but I'll be damned if the kids didn't fight a bit recently. Showed some heart, etc.

I'll buy into this team of kids. They've earned it and I think that until they're buried, I'll hold out some (irrational, unlikely) hope we'll play meaningful games in March.

Notice the phrasing, I'll buy into this team of kids. The coaches have a LOT more work to do to get buy in, we need some recruiting gets. Yesterday.

(01-15-2018 06:24 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 06:06 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:57 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:39 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 05:31 PM)MTigerBlue Wrote:  Yeah, we're getting better, but you have to remember where we started -- and for me, all I have to do is remember the first half against UALR! But hey, if we get in, maybe we'll win it. That's what happened the last time Tubby's team went.

But by the same token, the game vs. Cinci was just a tad over two weeks ago, so...

No comparison. Getting slapped around by Little Rock ain't nothing like getting rolled by a top 25 team. I was there. It was humiliating. Lots of people got off the Tubby train after that game.

Slapped around by LR?

You sure you were at the game?

Memphis spotted them an early lead and proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.

Now, THAT is being slapped around.

You must've been watching wrasslin.

http://csnbbs.com/thread-833475-page-12.html

What about my post above is incorrect?

1) Memphis spotted them an early lead.

2) [Memphis] proceeded to outscore them 63-41 the last 28 minutes of the game.

3) There are tons of examples where lesser team are spotted an early lead then run off the floor the rest of the game.

4) The Cinci loss was the worst loss in the HISTORY of the rivalry.


--I'll await an explanation of which of my statements was incorrect.

(01-15-2018 03:54 PM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 01:40 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  We've lowered the bar so much that beating crap teams makes us excited about farfetched NIT dreams.

You seem surprised. It’s been quite a while since we’ve had a very good team.

All the more reason to not lower the bar. The longer we suck the easier it'll be

Back to original post, I don’t think either are feasible with the changes to the NIT selection criteria. Regular season Conference champs who do not get into the NCAA are put in first which can significantly affect the number of at large teams. That coupled with our bad Non conference SOS and very poor attendance will be working against us.

(01-15-2018 10:48 PM)Shooters Wrote:  Back to original post, I don’t think either are feasible with the changes to the NIT selection criteria. Regular season Conference champs who do not get into the NCAA are put in first which can significantly affect the number of at large teams. That coupled with our bad Non conference SOS and very poor attendance will be working against us.

Yep. With our schedule it will take atleast 24 wins.

(01-15-2018 11:00 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 10:48 PM)Shooters Wrote:  Back to original post, I don’t think either are feasible with the changes to the NIT selection criteria. Regular season Conference champs who do not get into the NCAA are put in first which can significantly affect the number of at large teams. That coupled with our bad Non conference SOS and very poor attendance will be working against us.

Yep. With our schedule it will take atleast 24 wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Memphis.html

24 wins puts us around 40-41 in the RPI. Heck, we maybe a bubble NCAA team then.

(01-15-2018 11:04 PM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 11:00 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 10:48 PM)Shooters Wrote:  Back to original post, I don’t think either are feasible with the changes to the NIT selection criteria. Regular season Conference champs who do not get into the NCAA are put in first which can significantly affect the number of at large teams. That coupled with our bad Non conference SOS and very poor attendance will be working against us.

Yep. With our schedule it will take atleast 24 wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Memphis.html

24 wins puts us around 40-41 in the RPI. Heck, we maybe a bubble NCAA team then.

Yep, then they look at our schedule, see no good wins and we don't get in. I am willing to bet a steak dinner that 24 wins doesn't get us into the NCAA, if we get 24 wins, and that 20 wins doesn't get us into the NIT.

(01-16-2018 02:22 AM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 11:04 PM)tiger1016 Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 11:00 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(01-15-2018 10:48 PM)Shooters Wrote:  Back to original post, I don’t think either are feasible with the changes to the NIT selection criteria. Regular season Conference champs who do not get into the NCAA are put in first which can significantly affect the number of at large teams. That coupled with our bad Non conference SOS and very poor attendance will be working against us.

Yep. With our schedule it will take atleast 24 wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Memphis.html

24 wins puts us around 40-41 in the RPI. Heck, we maybe a bubble NCAA team then.

Yep, then they look at our schedule, see no good wins and we don't get in. I am willing to bet a steak dinner that 24 wins doesn't get us into the NCAA, if we get 24 wins, and that 20 wins doesn't get us into the NIT.

You said 24 wins are needed to get into the NIT. I believe we'll be in fact on the NCAA bubble with 24 wins and may not get in, but definitely NIT. In fact 21 wins and we'll be in the NIT. Your initial post mentioned 24 wins as the minimum requirement for the NIT which IMO is not correct.