chiefsfan
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RE: Bowl Projections after week 7
(10-17-2017 11:42 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (10-17-2017 10:01 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: (10-17-2017 01:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote: Just some notes:
Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form
The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.
The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.
So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe
Safe
App.
Troy
Probably safe
Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.
On the fence - I think at least one stumbles
Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6
ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.
ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.
in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.
NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.
USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.
Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State
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If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.
As far as the picks go.
New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.
Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.
Geez Tom, how many games do you have us losing? We'regoing to be favored every game the rest of the season with the exception of Troy, which is probably going to be a 1-2 point line either direction.
For the record, it was a combination of the AAC/CBSSN that vetoed USA to Orlando.
You aren't there yet. You could win every single game, but I wouldn't be stunned if you didn't make it. Your schedule is a bit unbalanced if you guys underperform. First, you get home games with ULL and Troy, which you could lose. Then you have to play on the road at USA and ULM, which you could also lose.
I think you make it, and make it with some margin, but your schedule hasn't proven anything yet. You beat Coastal and Ga Southern soundly, but these two teams have a combined record of 1-10 (plus a bad FCS team) You got spanked by SMU and played a Nebraska team close in week one.
I *think* Arkansas State is going to make it. But there's nothing in your resume this year that shows that you guys are a lock for a bowl. Beating ULL would go a long way towards that (as well as helping contribute towards potentially freeing up a bowl slot in New Orleans). I'm just looking at your record so far this year. That's all I'm basing it on so far.
Oh I'm merely pointing out that you've come up with a pretty wild scenario that keeps us out. It includes losing a game to a team that has never beaten us, a game to a team that hasn't beaten us since 2009, a game to a team that hasn't beaten us since 2010, and a game to a team that has beaten us in Jonesboro twice in the entire history of the series.
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