(10-17-2017 11:57 AM)chiefsfan Wrote: Just some notes:
Early projections indicate that more than 78 teams will be eligible this year, so some 6-6 teams will get left out. That also means no Waivers will get through if those projections stay to form
The Sun Belt does not have a tie in with the Frisco Bowl. In fact, if we hit 6 teams, it's entirely likely one of those 6 does not go bowling.
The understanding I have is that ULM and Florida State will make up their hurricane out on December 2nd assuming FSU doesn't make the ACC title game. Both AState and Georgia State will run with 11 game schedules rather than make up their Coward outs.
So lets start looking at potential 6-6 teams from the Belt that might not be safe
Safe
App.
Troy
Probably safe
Ark State still has work to do. They play @USA, @ULM, @NMSU and host Texas State, ULL, and Troy. They need 3 from that. I think they get 3, but if they lose to ULL, it might get a bit interesting for them.
On the fence - I think at least one stumbles
Georgia State. Needs 3 to bowl. They host Troy, USA, App, and Idaho and travel to Ga Southern and Texas State. I think they get there - barely. But they'll probably be a less desirable pick at 6-6
ULL - Needs 3 to bowl. @Ark State, @USA, @Ole Miss, NMSU, Ga Southern, @App. I'm thinking that the USA vs ULL game might be a real key to whether they're in the discussion going forward. Lose that and they'll need to upset someone along the way.
ULM - Needs 3 to bowl. They're actually in a pretty desperate scenario as they have to play @USA, @Idaho, @Auburn and host App and Ark State. They lose to USA or Idaho and I think they're in real trouble.
in Trouble - Could get to a bowl, but is in trouble. I think 1 of the 3 makes it.
NMSU Needs 3 from Ark State, @Texas State, @ULL, Idaho, USA.
USA Needs 4 from ULM, @Ga State, ULL, Ark State, @Ga Southern, @NMSU. Could lose all 6. Could run the table too. Who knows.
Idaho. Needs 4 from @Missouri, ULM, @Troy, Coastal, @NMSU, @Georgia State
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If ULM loses at USA, they're pretty much done.
If Idaho loses to anyone in conference, they're done unless they beat Missouri.
ULL hasn't won in Mobile - ever. This might be a must win for the Cajuns
USA hasn't beaten Ark State or Ga Southern, ever. USA really needs at least one of those to bowl.
As far as the picks go.
New Orleans Bowl..ULL if eligible period.
Mobile...Usually takes the best team, which by record might be App
Camelia...Will probably take Troy if they're still on the board.
Cure...Took Ark State last year, but originally picked USA
Arizona...Prefers NMSU if eligible.
Oddly enough, the team that might be scrambling at this point might be Arkansas State. They travel really well, but if they finish 6-6 and so does ULL and NMSU, then they might be looking at either the Cure Bowl taking them again or the Arizona Bowl not taking NMSU.