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Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
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Chappy Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 01:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I don't believe there's anyone here who does not want a secure border and/or more agents and an immigration bill.

What I and many others don't feel we need though is some preposterous wall that will cost a fortune and not really solve much.

"...maybe a rope?" ~ DJT

I agree. Enforcing the laws already in place is a huge step.
08-28-2017 02:09 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 02:09 PM)Chappy Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 01:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I don't believe there's anyone here who does not want a secure border and/or more agents and an immigration bill.

What I and many others don't feel we need though is some preposterous wall that will cost a fortune and not really solve much.

"...maybe a rope?" ~ DJT

I agree. Enforcing the laws already in place is a huge step.

Yep, we have walls and fences now for a good chunk of the border. So some more agents and some better practices and shoring up the weak points would go along way. Real punishment for employers who continue to hire illegals would go even further. Stop giving them an incentive to come here and the problem will come close to resolving itself.

But we also need a bill to deal with the ones already here. They need to be brought out of the shadows and put on a path to citizenship, in line behind those already in the legal process of doing so. And as long as they stay on the path and pay their taxes, they get to remain. If they don't, buh bye.
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2017 02:15 PM by Redwingtom.)
08-28-2017 02:14 PM
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Eldonabe Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
Holy sh**..... stop deflecting. Who cares what the stats are or where they came from - if you are not in our county legally and you commit a crime that is a crime that not one single us citizen should have had to endure in the first place - period.

If you want to follow the rules - get a green card / update your work visa / join the f-ing club. If you don't want to assimilate into our society, why should any US citizen pay one red f-ing cent to support your existence here. We have enough home grown problems to deal with never mind paying the freight for people who shouldn't be here in the first place. If you want to support those people - then go live in their country of origin and support them there - make sure you register though or you will be escorted out with out any ability to fight back - unlike our country.

Why do people get such a hard-on over this "illegal immigrant" thing - do they want to defy "the man" or some other personal defiance of authority stance. The word "Illegal" kind of says it all- no?
08-28-2017 02:20 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 02:20 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Holy sh**..... stop deflecting. Who cares what the stats are or where they came from - if you are not in our county legally and you commit a crime that is a crime that not one single us citizen should have had to endure in the first place - period.

If you want to follow the rules - get a green card / update your work visa / join the f-ing club. If you don't want to assimilate into our society, why should any US citizen pay one red f-ing cent to support your existence here. We have enough home grown problems to deal with never mind paying the freight for people who shouldn't be here in the first place. If you want to support those people - then go live in their country of origin and support them there - make sure you register though or you will be escorted out with out any ability to fight back - unlike our country.

Why do people get such a hard-on over this "illegal immigrant" thing - do they want to defy "the man" or some other personal defiance of authority stance. The word "Illegal" kind of says it all- no?

I regret that I can only give you three rep points for this post. Spot on!
08-28-2017 02:40 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 11:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 10:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 09:26 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Curious, did any of you bother to click on the link in the article that supposedly backs up these reported figures?

Why don't you and report back as to what you find? 03-wink

I find links to sites like the FBI crime stats and the DHS.... and quotes from them.

Of course I also find links to some troubling websites... but when you 'follow the information' you get to more reasonable links... i.e. that 97% of illegal immigrants who enter clandestinely so so across the southern border.... a figure that is clearly targeted somewhat in that this ignores the large numbers of 'students' who overstay their visas etc, because they don't enter clandestinely, but nothing about a border wall means you can't also go after those people.... and it means we don't really need a northern border wall.

Rather than be smug, why don't you click the link and tell us what YOU see?

Why don't you be honest for a change and call out this **** article for what it is, ****. It does not back up ONE of her stats.

But do you challenge the author or the OP? No, you challenge me for being smug. 03-zzz


You asked me to look up the article and report back what I found.

I told you what I found.

Apparently you wanted me to find something else.

As I said...

The 53% drop comes from the DHS website for the month of June. For the month of July, it was 47% https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

That one entry alone disproves your claim. Do I really need to go into much more depth?


You apparently believe that not one of their claims is legit.... That one seems to be, so does the one quoting the written testimony to Congress since it it quoted on a government website. Some others as I said, DO take some digging, and I understand why you'd rather just assume that they are lies rather than dig... but unlike you, I'm able to read numbers for what they are. Numbers are often interpretations, not facts. That's how the world of statistics often works.

I suppose my question is, does it matter to you if the decline in illegals is 47% of 53% or I think someone claimed 76%? By any measure, they're down and that is a good thing. OF COURSE someone wanting to play up the decline will post the higher numbers, and someone trying to downplay them will post the lower ones....

and neither would be lying or painting a false picture merely because it's not the picture you want them to paint.

Of course I'm assuming what picture you want them to paint, since you still haven't said what YOU found.
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2017 03:57 PM by Hambone10.)
08-28-2017 03:56 PM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 03:56 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:31 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 10:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 09:26 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Curious, did any of you bother to click on the link in the article that supposedly backs up these reported figures?

Why don't you and report back as to what you find? 03-wink

I find links to sites like the FBI crime stats and the DHS.... and quotes from them.

Of course I also find links to some troubling websites... but when you 'follow the information' you get to more reasonable links... i.e. that 97% of illegal immigrants who enter clandestinely so so across the southern border.... a figure that is clearly targeted somewhat in that this ignores the large numbers of 'students' who overstay their visas etc, because they don't enter clandestinely, but nothing about a border wall means you can't also go after those people.... and it means we don't really need a northern border wall.

Rather than be smug, why don't you click the link and tell us what YOU see?

Why don't you be honest for a change and call out this **** article for what it is, ****. It does not back up ONE of her stats.

But do you challenge the author or the OP? No, you challenge me for being smug. 03-zzz


You asked me to look up the article and report back what I found.

I told you what I found.

Apparently you wanted me to find something else.

As I said...

The 53% drop comes from the DHS website for the month of June. For the month of July, it was 47% https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

That one entry alone disproves your claim. Do I really need to go into much more depth?


You apparently believe that not one of their claims is legit.... That one seems to be, so does the one quoting the written testimony to Congress since it it quoted on a government website. Some others as I said, DO take some digging, and I understand why you'd rather just assume that they are lies rather than dig... but unlike you, I'm able to read numbers for what they are. Numbers are often interpretations, not facts. That's how the world of statistics often works.

I suppose my question is, does it matter to you if the decline in illegals is 47% of 53% or I think someone claimed 76%? By any measure, they're down and that is a good thing. OF COURSE someone wanting to play up the decline will post the higher numbers, and someone trying to downplay them will post the lower ones....

and neither would be lying or painting a false picture merely because it's not the picture you want them to paint.

Of course I'm assuming what picture you want them to paint, since you still haven't said what YOU found.

Once again dude, here's the problem...the same one you always have. I. DID. NOT. ASK. YOU. You had not posted in the thread yet. I was referring to those above me who took the figures as fact and ran with them.

What you were supposed to find in the article was the lack of any supporting documentation to support the claims made by the author of that piece.

Of course you know this because you're smart...at least you and Owl keep telling us this. Instead, you choose to be obtuse, as usual.
08-28-2017 04:06 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.
08-28-2017 04:21 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 04:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Once again dude, here's the problem...the same one you always have. I. DID. NOT. ASK. YOU. You had not posted in the thread yet. I was referring to those above me who took the figures as fact and ran with them.

Once again, dude... here's the problem.... this is a public forum and you posted a comment. If you'd like to PM people and ask them, feel free.

What does that have to do with the fact that what I said about it was true and what you've said about it is a lie?



Quote:What you were supposed to find in the article was the lack of any supporting documentation to support the claims made by the author of that piece.

Of course you know this because you're smart...at least you and Owl keep telling us this. Instead, you choose to be obtuse, as usual.

How is showing you a direct link to a DHS website and testimony before congress that says exactly what they claim it says, in direct conflict with your statement here, 'lacking any supporting documentation'?

I realize that you WANT me to find what you think is there, but it seems that YOU didn't click on the links like I did.

I think your intellectual inferiority complex is showing that when i certainly haven't claimed to be especially smart in this thread (or anywhere else that i recall recently), you feel you need to try and claim I have....

and owl hasn't commented at all... in a thread where you try and chastise me for 'not talking to me', you bring him in. 'Do as I say, not as I do' much?


I45 did a reasonable job of making your case, but even with his I'd note the following:
(08-28-2017 11:24 AM)I45owl Wrote:  
(08-25-2017 02:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants. First sounds a little high, but maybe so....

1) 95% of arrest warrants in Los Angeles are for illegal immigrants.

The author does not do a responsible job of backing up her stats. The one she leads off with seems to be a recurring theme in emails that have circulated for nearly 15 years, and she just throws a link to the FBI's crime report as a citation - that seems like an act of pure laziness. One explanation I've seen about that statistic is that outstanding warrants are for those who cannot be located... they may have returned to their country of origin or simply evaded arrest because they can't be located. That's a far cry from what the author implies - that 95% of murders in Los Angeles are done by illegal immigrants.

opinion.latimes.com/opinionla/2007/04/may_day_mythbus.html
Quote:"Fact" 2: 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens. LAT citations: May 15, 2005 — "According to Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute, 95% of the hundreds of outstanding homicide warrants (and 60% of outstanding felony warrants) in L.A. are for illegal immigrants." Similar citations: January 19, 2004 Factual basis: An outstanding warrant is quite a different beast than a regular warrant, so this "fact" left out the key word. We did some more checking on the outstanding warrants point itself. MacDonald stated this in a 2004 City Journal article, and in testimony before the House of Representatives in spring 2005, noting that this came to 1,200-1,500 warrants. One LAPD officer cited the same factoid in the National Review earlier this year, saying that it's specific to "the first half of 2004". But Jane Robison, press secretary for the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office, told us that the D.A. does not keep track of this number; a representative with Detective Headquarters said the same.

The author doesn't imply that 95% of murders are committed by illegals. He says 95% of arrest warrants in LA are for illegals.

As I45 notes, one might INFER that from what he says, but that's not what the author claims.... and I45 explains why this could very well be true.... and it DOES mean that people came here illegally and committed murder and we can't find them to prosecute them and that is a problem.

This is precisely why I said that statistics can appear to be at odds and 'neither would be lying'.

How exactly is an outstanding warrant different than a regular warrant, except that all warrants are regular and only SOME of them remain outstanding?

That could also be taken to imply that none of the 'regular' but no longer outstanding warrants involved illegals. I'm not saying you implied that, but someone could infer it.

It seems to me the statement as written (according to your interpretation) is accurate.... if you read it and not what isn't there.

Question...
If 50 illegals commit murder and 5 are given warrants that are executed and 950 people here legally (including aliens) commit murder and 945 are executed warrants... such that now 1000 warrants were executed and 50 remain outstanding... thus 90% of the outstanding warrants are for illegals.... *close enough to the supposed reality for conversation... doesn't that imply that the ability for illegals to move back and forth across the border keeps people from getting justice that they seem to get very often with people here legally?

Why are we arguing over trivialities and ignoring that the overwhelming number of 'outstanding warrants' for serious crimes are for people who shouldn't have been here in the first place and now we can't find? Regardless of how you look at it, that's a problem.
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2017 06:10 PM by Hambone10.)
08-28-2017 05:49 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

This is not an academic paper... It's an article in a newspaper. FAR greater offenses occur on here every day.

The implication wasn't that the person was lazy, but that they were lying.

I see some comments that need clarification, but are ultimately factual... and I see comments that are fully supported (like the two I pointed out).

What I don't see is things that are bald-faced lies, which is what is being implied.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure. You should ALWAYS look at how someone words something using statistics... like the comment about '97% of illegal immigrants who enter clandestinely'.
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2017 06:16 PM by Hambone10.)
08-28-2017 06:13 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink
08-29-2017 08:51 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink

The numbers are proven to be shockingly high. You have offered no proof to counter those numbers. Feel free to post links to where it says otherwise.
08-29-2017 08:52 AM
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Post: #32
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 01:21 PM)Fitbud Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 01:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I don't believe there's anyone here who does not want a secure border and/or more agents and an immigration bill.

What I and many others don't feel we need though is some preposterous wall that will cost a fortune and not really solve much.

"...maybe a rope?" ~ DJT

Don't worry about it. Mexico is going to pay for it. 03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao
Still don't get it do you? NAFTA renegotiations upcoming.

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08-29-2017 08:56 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 02:20 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Holy sh**..... stop deflecting. Who cares what the stats are or where they came from - if you are not in our county legally and you commit a crime that is a crime that not one single us citizen should have had to endure in the first place - period.

If you want to follow the rules - get a green card / update your work visa / join the f-ing club. If you don't want to assimilate into our society, why should any US citizen pay one red f-ing cent to support your existence here. We have enough home grown problems to deal with never mind paying the freight for people who shouldn't be here in the first place. If you want to support those people - then go live in their country of origin and support them there - make sure you register though or you will be escorted out with out any ability to fight back - unlike our country.

Why do people get such a hard-on over this "illegal immigrant" thing - do they want to defy "the man" or some other personal defiance of authority stance. The word "Illegal" kind of says it all- no?
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08-29-2017 08:57 AM
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Post: #34
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 08:52 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink

The numbers are proven to be shockingly high. You have offered no proof to counter those numbers. Feel free to post links to where it says otherwise.

I anxiously await Hambone to take you task for asking me to prove a negative......

03-zzz 03-yawn

And then to tell you how it's the poster's responsibility, who makes the initial claim, to prove his numbers and facts. Which has not been done. Instead we get an article with a link to an FBI website where their numbers can't be found.
08-29-2017 09:00 AM
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Post: #35
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 09:00 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-29-2017 08:52 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.
I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink

The numbers are proven to be shockingly high. You have offered no proof to counter those numbers. Feel free to post links to where it says otherwise.

I anxiously await Hambone to take you task for asking me to prove a negative......

03-zzz 03-yawn

And then to tell you how it's the poster's responsibility, who makes the initial claim, to prove his numbers and facts. Which has not been done. Instead we get an article with a link to an FBI website where their numbers can't be found.

Actually you dont have to prove a negative. All you have to do is provide proof of lower crime stats.

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08-29-2017 09:15 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 08:52 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink

The numbers are proven to be shockingly high. You have offered no proof to counter those numbers. Feel free to post links to where it says otherwise.

I see so you can post a bull**** article and it's everyone elses job to prove that it's false?

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08-29-2017 10:39 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.

The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink

If you call them liars, then its up to you to back it up. They gave detailed specific information. And its not some random blog or Facebook post. So other than the 95%, it seems credible.

You are calling them liars with absolutely nothing to back it up. So are you going with that rationale?
08-29-2017 10:44 AM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.
The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.

Sounds believable isn't good enough to start a conversation with statistical claims. When an author's lead point is not credible, what's the point in going on?

I've said this before but it bears repeating ... statistics are a way of manipulating data in order to present a point. Pointing out the number of outstanding warrants in a way that makes it seem like all murders in LA are committed by illegal immigrants is a case in point.

Should we address and minimize illegal immigration? Sure. Should we de-humanize illegal immigrants as universally bad people? No, absolutely not.
08-29-2017 11:23 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-29-2017 08:52 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(08-29-2017 08:51 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 04:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-28-2017 11:39 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  Even Bullet doesn't believe the article in the thread that was started.
The 95% doesn't sound credible. And yes, the FBI link in the article didn't tell you anything. But the other stats are believable and they did come up with those numbers from somewhere. How much are lies, damned lies and statistics and how much are relevant is hard to say. They were lazy with their support.
03-lol I don't think that's the rationale you really want to go by, is it? 03-wink
The numbers are proven to be shockingly high. You have offered no proof to counter those numbers. Feel free to post links to where it says otherwise.

What numbers, and where is the proof? The number of times that people claim that something has been proven, which in fact has never been proven is shockingly high. Citation
08-29-2017 11:29 AM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Shockingly high crime numbers by illegal immigrants
(08-28-2017 01:18 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I don't believe there's anyone here who does not want a secure border and/or more agents and an immigration bill.

What I and many others don't feel we need though is some preposterous wall that will cost a fortune and not really solve much.

"...maybe a rope?" ~ DJT

Im in agreement. Simply just cracking down on the issue since the election with the border patrol has curbed the flow considerably. If we went a step further and prosecute the hell out of anyone hiring illegals and cutting off ALL government handouts...the flow would be a trickle. Dry up the illegal jobs. That should be the first step. I have no problem allowing them to work with permission and we need to streamline that process...but...just wandering across the border? It need to come to a halt.
08-29-2017 11:36 AM
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