I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

(04-25-2017 09:51 AM)dbacard Wrote:  I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

There is a reason that a clown like Kim Jong-un is the head of North Korea, and that is that he is largely a figurehead. Nothing would substantially change if there were a coup unless you have some reason to think that some enlightened, liberal officers had somehow advanced to get power in the North Korean military. I don't think what you see in North Korea is Kim pushing military solutions against the wishes of the generals. What he does, in terms of threats and missile/weapons tests is probably done in consultation with the military.

North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel. China is loosely behind the driver seat in terms of the continued existence of North Korea and its basic nature, but North Korea is more consistent than all developed nations, given that the leadership turns over every 4-8 years in most countries.

I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Someone brought up the comparison with German reunification. West Germany at the time was about 63 million people ... East Germany about 16 million... about a 4:1 ratio (or 20% of Germans were in the East). North Korea has about 25 million people, the South about 50 million ... a 2:1 ratio (about 33% of Koreans live in the North). On the plus side, there is a lot of infrastructure work that needs to go into the North. I don't know what the economics of unification would look like.

(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 09:51 AM)dbacard Wrote:  I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

There is a reason that a clown like Kim Jong-un is the head of North Korea, and that is that he is largely a figurehead. Nothing would substantially change if there were a coup unless you have some reason to think that some enlightened, liberal officers had somehow advanced to get power in the North Korean military. I don't think what you see in North Korea is Kim pushing military solutions against the wishes of the generals. What he does, in terms of threats and missile/weapons tests is probably done in consultation with the military.

North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel. China is loosely behind the driver seat in terms of the continued existence of North Korea and its basic nature, but North Korea is more consistent than all developed nations, given that the leadership turns over every 4-8 years in most countries.

I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Someone brought up the comparison with German reunification. West Germany at the time was about 63 million people ... East Germany about 16 million... about a 4:1 ratio (or 20% of Germans were in the East). North Korea has about 25 million people, the South about 50 million ... a 2:1 ratio (about 33% of Koreans live in the North). On the plus side, there is a lot of infrastructure work that needs to go into the North. I don't know what the economics of unification would look like.

I don't agree. Kim is a family dictator and not a military person.

He is certifiably nuts, Pol Pot level. Now NK wouldn't become a democracy, but it might well be more predictable and rational.

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles...11241.html

This article talks about how the Korean War II would play out and what the North Korean strategy would be.

US Sends Trident Submarine to Korean Peninsula

Quote:The USS Michigan, an Ohio class submarine capable of carrying 24 ballistic missiles, was spotted at the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday as it prepares to join the USS Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, according to Fox News.

The news comes just one day before all 100 U.S. senators are scheduled to meet at the White House for a briefing with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Wednesday.

"U.S. Navy ships and submarines routinely make port calls in a variety of locations," Lieutenant commander Matt Knight of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said. "As a matter of routine, we do not discuss future operations or the details regarding the operations of our submarines. USS Michigan is currently on a routine deployment to the Indo-Asia-Pacific."

The Ohio class submarine is one of the most devastating weapons in the U.S. arsenal.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/justinholc...a-n2317911

Right now, I would hate to be in SK. Those poor people will get caught in this war, like it or not. As long as NK doesn't use it's nuclear arsenal, however many there are, it won't be a mass destruct. In a conventional war NK doesn't have a chance. But, like it or not, SK doesn't have another option as NK can't be allowed to get super power status as far as nuclear missiles is concerned.

Like the saying goes, "pay me now or pay me later" and we can't afford a later.

(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 09:51 AM)dbacard Wrote:  I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

There is a reason that a clown like Kim Jong-un is the head of North Korea, and that is that he is largely a figurehead. Nothing would substantially change if there were a coup unless you have some reason to think that some enlightened, liberal officers had somehow advanced to get power in the North Korean military. I don't think what you see in North Korea is Kim pushing military solutions against the wishes of the generals. What he does, in terms of threats and missile/weapons tests is probably done in consultation with the military.

North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel. China is loosely behind the driver seat in terms of the continued existence of North Korea and its basic nature, but North Korea is more consistent than all developed nations, given that the leadership turns over every 4-8 years in most countries.

I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Someone brought up the comparison with German reunification. West Germany at the time was about 63 million people ... East Germany about 16 million... about a 4:1 ratio (or 20% of Germans were in the East). North Korea has about 25 million people, the South about 50 million ... a 2:1 ratio (about 33% of Koreans live in the North). On the plus side, there is a lot of infrastructure work that needs to go into the North. I don't know what the economics of unification would look like.

Would it really? First Im not convinced a decapitation strike wouldn't solve the problem. It would lead to a military rule and reunification that would mean a real peace. I don't think the generals really want to fight because they have seen Iraq. Its the same set pieces and equipment on each side. The only reason they didn't lose last time was China sent nearly 200K troops across the border as the their army was in full retreat. Not to mention, the Russian Air Force came to their aid in 1951. Neither of those things are happening this time around.

That's why I don't think we'll need quite the US commitment you think. Air Power alone is going to be 100X more destructive than it was in the first Korean conflict. Despite constant attacks from the air, the North Korean Army was able to move around and attack at night in the 1950's. Not today. If the NK Army tries to move in day or night it will be destroyed just like the "highway of death" in Iraq. The only issue is Seoul. Its going to be pelted early and often with artillery until counter fire and air power can silence them. Even then, mobile light missile batteries will still be able to hit the city. Seoul will take a beating.

(04-25-2017 10:38 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  US Sends Trident Submarine to Korean Peninsula

Quote:The USS Michigan, an Ohio class submarine capable of carrying 24 ballistic missiles, was spotted at the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday as it prepares to join the USS Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, according to Fox News.

The news comes just one day before all 100 U.S. senators are scheduled to meet at the White House for a briefing with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Wednesday.

"U.S. Navy ships and submarines routinely make port calls in a variety of locations," Lieutenant commander Matt Knight of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said. "As a matter of routine, we do not discuss future operations or the details regarding the operations of our submarines. USS Michigan is currently on a routine deployment to the Indo-Asia-Pacific."

The Ohio class submarine is one of the most devastating weapons in the U.S. arsenal.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/justinholc...a-n2317911

The Michigan was converted from an SSBN to SSGN and is no longer capable of launching Trident missiles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruise_missile_submarine

From the link:

"From 2002 to 2008, the U.S. Navy modified the four oldest Ohio-class submarines: USS Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia into SSGNs. The conversion was achieved by installing vertical launching systems (VLS) in a multiple all-up-round canister (MAC) configuration in 22 of the 24 missile tubes, replacing one Trident missile with 7 smaller Tomahawk cruise missiles. The 2 remaining tubes were converted to lockout chambers for use by special forces personnel. This gave each converted submarine the capability to carry up to 154 Tomahawks. The large diameter tubes can also be modified to carry and launch other payloads, such as UAVs or UUVs although these capabilities have not yet been fully implemented. In addition to generating a significant increase in stand-off strike capabilities, this conversion also counts as an arms reduction against the START II treaty[1][2] because it reduces the number of nuclear weapons that are forward-deployed. USS Florida launched cruise missiles against Libyan targets as part of Operation Odyssey Dawn in March 2011."

I don't know why people keep bringing the reunification bit out. SK wants nothing to do with NK if NK maintains her communist stance. That's like letting your homeless, broke, drunk uncle to come live with you bringing nothing into the equation but problems. If Li'l Kim gets offed that place will become a killing field for control by every other military officer.

(04-25-2017 10:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 09:51 AM)dbacard Wrote:  I think if NK does another nuke test, the US will do a Tomohawk strike like Syria. [also why Trump met with the senate to seek approval unlike last time].

How does NK respond to that is the real question. I would love to see Kim's generals do a coup and take him out.

There is a reason that a clown like Kim Jong-un is the head of North Korea, and that is that he is largely a figurehead. Nothing would substantially change if there were a coup unless you have some reason to think that some enlightened, liberal officers had somehow advanced to get power in the North Korean military. I don't think what you see in North Korea is Kim pushing military solutions against the wishes of the generals. What he does, in terms of threats and missile/weapons tests is probably done in consultation with the military.

North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel. China is loosely behind the driver seat in terms of the continued existence of North Korea and its basic nature, but North Korea is more consistent than all developed nations, given that the leadership turns over every 4-8 years in most countries.

I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Someone brought up the comparison with German reunification. West Germany at the time was about 63 million people ... East Germany about 16 million... about a 4:1 ratio (or 20% of Germans were in the East). North Korea has about 25 million people, the South about 50 million ... a 2:1 ratio (about 33% of Koreans live in the North). On the plus side, there is a lot of infrastructure work that needs to go into the North. I don't know what the economics of unification would look like.

I don't agree. Kim is a family dictator and not a military person.

He is certifiably nuts, Pol Pot level. Now NK wouldn't become a democracy, but it might well be more predictable and rational.

I am trying to distinguish between how the country is led and who the nominal leader is. Kim Jong-un's great-grandmother was active in the communist revolution. She was a Christian. It was explained to me that the reason that the North regards "dear leader" as a god is that the first leader (Kim Il-Sung) basically took the bible and replace Jesus with his own name. Hence, North Koreans learn that "dear leader" is the leader of the communist dictatorship in the same fashion that Christians regard Jesus.

Kim Il-Sung may have been diabolically evil and his progeny progressively more deranged, but the way the country is led is consistent to a far greater degree than you would expect if North Korea were led by a personality cult in the same fashion as Mohamar Khadaffi's Libya or Saddam Hussein's Iraq. North Korea has pushed its limits for over 20 years across three leaders while building up its nuclear program, but it has never provoked war (at least as of the last time I checked the news).

Their leader may be a lunatic, but they are not led as if they were led by a lunatic.

(04-25-2017 02:27 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  I don't know why people keep bringing the reunification bit out.

Unification is in the interest of the United States. I think that South Korea and Japan would generally be more happy if they did not have North Korean weapons directed at them, but if unification were to happen, they would find that they had a large number of Chinese troops and weapons directed at them. I haven't actually asked the question if everyone in the South wants unification, but I would think they would.

(04-25-2017 01:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  I don't know what the solution is in North Korea, but if it ever comes to blows, it would require a massive commitment from the United States and South Korea, and it would be an effort that would result in Unification, which would take an extraordinary effort.

Would it really? First Im not convinced a decapitation strike wouldn't solve the problem. It would lead to a military rule and reunification that would mean a real peace. I don't think the generals really want to fight because they have seen Iraq. Its the same set pieces and equipment on each side. The only reason they didn't lose last time was China sent nearly 200K troops across the border as the their army was in full retreat. Not to mention, the Russian Air Force came to their aid in 1951. Neither of those things are happening this time around.

For decades, it's been said that the North could kill hundreds of thousands of people in the South within 30 minutes of conflict breaking out, using only conventional weapons. They are said to have artillery dug into the hills overlooking Seoul with the ability to fire those off quickly. I have no idea what the US and North Korea could do to counter that threat... I don't think they could do it with air power alone. They may have Iron Dome like capabilities, and could probably destroy some percentage of those positions before they could be fired, but I still think that without massive and coordinated attack, they could face what would be a loss of civilian life in a western-allied country that would be unprecedented in several generations.

North Korea has a formidable deterrence against a first strike against it. That is why any first strike would need to be massive.

(04-25-2017 01:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That's why I don't think we'll need quite the US commitment you think. Air Power alone is going to be 100X more destructive than it was in the first Korean conflict. Despite constant attacks from the air, the North Korean Army was able to move around and attack at night in the 1950's. Not today. If the NK Army tries to move in day or night it will be destroyed just like the "highway of death" in Iraq. The only issue is Seoul. Its going to be pelted early and often with artillery until counter fire and air power can silence them. Even then, mobile light missile batteries will still be able to hit the city. Seoul will take a beating.

(04-25-2017 03:35 PM)I45owl Wrote:  Kim Il-Sung may have been diabolically evil and his progeny progressively more deranged, but the way the country is led is consistent to a far greater degree than you would expect if North Korea were led by a personality cult in the same fashion as Mohamar Khadaffi's Libya or Saddam Hussein's Iraq. North Korea has pushed its limits for over 20 years across three leaders while building up its nuclear program, but it has never provoked war (at least as of the last time I checked the news).

I disagree with your prognosis. The Kim family is probably modern history's most effective personality cult and has indeed provoked war (sinking a ROK military frigate, shelling South Korean islands, two assassination attempts against the South Korean presidency among other state sponsored aggression. The North Korean's are the most programmed people on the face of the earth.

Only through Western level-headedness has the Korean peninsula not degenerated into Korean War II.

(04-25-2017 10:38 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  US Sends Trident Submarine to Korean Peninsula

Quote:The USS Michigan, an Ohio class submarine capable of carrying 24 ballistic missiles, was spotted at the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday as it prepares to join the USS Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, according to Fox News.

The news comes just one day before all 100 U.S. senators are scheduled to meet at the White House for a briefing with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Wednesday.

"U.S. Navy ships and submarines routinely make port calls in a variety of locations," Lieutenant commander Matt Knight of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said. "As a matter of routine, we do not discuss future operations or the details regarding the operations of our submarines. USS Michigan is currently on a routine deployment to the Indo-Asia-Pacific."

The Ohio class submarine is one of the most devastating weapons in the U.S. arsenal.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/justinholc...a-n2317911

Wait.

What?!?

I thought the Vinson was lost at Sea and wandering around Antarctica somewhere? Guess they found it after all?

(04-25-2017 04:03 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 03:35 PM)I45owl Wrote:  Kim Il-Sung may have been diabolically evil and his progeny progressively more deranged, but the way the country is led is consistent to a far greater degree than you would expect if North Korea were led by a personality cult in the same fashion as Mohamar Khadaffi's Libya or Saddam Hussein's Iraq. North Korea has pushed its limits for over 20 years across three leaders while building up its nuclear program, but it has never provoked war (at least as of the last time I checked the news).

I disagree with your prognosis. The Kim family is probably modern history's most effective personality cult and has indeed provoked war (sinking a ROK military frigate, shelling South Korean islands, two assassination attempts against the South Korean presidency among other state sponsored aggression. The North Korean's are the most programmed people on the face of the earth.

Only through Western level-headedness has the Korean peninsula not degenerated into Korean War II.

No-one in the world has been as effective at getting what it wanted from the US when it wanted it. And, no-one in the world has been able to wantonly defy the United States without serious consequence as well as the North Koreans. They are able to test the United States in myriad fashion because they no that we cannot respond effectively.

I agree with your assessment of facts, just not the conclusion.

This all depends on China.

They have contacts in North Korea. If they are really on board then our pressure and their support for alternative factions could lead to a coup before a war breaks out.

But I'm not convinced they are really on board.

Do you remember when we blasted Noriega with heavy metal music for days until he finally gave up? Thats sort of like what we are doing I think. Keeping them awake and nervous all night and all day.

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(04-25-2017 10:38 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  US Sends Trident Submarine to Korean Peninsula

Quote:The USS Michigan, an Ohio class submarine capable of carrying 24 ballistic missiles, was spotted at the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday as it prepares to join the USS Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, according to Fox News.

The news comes just one day before all 100 U.S. senators are scheduled to meet at the White House for a briefing with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Wednesday.

"U.S. Navy ships and submarines routinely make port calls in a variety of locations," Lieutenant commander Matt Knight of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said. "As a matter of routine, we do not discuss future operations or the details regarding the operations of our submarines. USS Michigan is currently on a routine deployment to the Indo-Asia-Pacific."

The Ohio class submarine is one of the most devastating weapons in the U.S. arsenal.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/justinholc...a-n2317911

What is unstated is how many attack subs are currently tracking NK subs around the seas.

First thing that would happen would be those NK subs might go missing all at once.

If China stays out the initial open warfare will be rough but within 90-100 days the outcome is inevitable. They have a conscript army which means they will already have motivation problems. They already have logistical problems in that they use varying types and sizes of ammunition for everything from their handguns to their heavy artillery that will only get worse once we establish initially air superiority then air supremacy and make it to where "if it moves it dies".

One thing that has always stood out to me is that even in the propaganda videos they release showing off their military might if you watch the vehicles a large number of them are burning oil like a 1969 F700 pulpwood truck, and this is the best of their equipment. Imagine what condition their average and sub-par units are in.

Add to that the fact that much of their equipment is 1950's to 1960's era technology like T-55 and T-62 tanks and their Chinese variants. This equipment couldn't hold up against our equipment in the Gulf War, and we have advanced it a lot since then.

(04-25-2017 05:43 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  If China stays out the initial open warfare will be rough but within 90-100 days the outcome is inevitable. They have a conscript army which means they will already have motivation problems. They already have logistical problems in that they use varying types and sizes of ammunition for everything from their handguns to their heavy artillery that will only get worse once we establish initially air superiority then air supremacy and make it to where "if it moves it dies".

One thing that has always stood out to me is that even in the propaganda videos they release showing off their military might if you watch the vehicles a large number of them are burning oil like a 1969 F700 pulpwood truck, and this is the best of their equipment. Imagine what condition their average and sub-par units are in.

Add to that the fact that much of their equipment is 1950's to 1960's era technology like T-55 and T-62 tanks and their Chinese variants. This equipment couldn't hold up against our equipment in the Gulf War, and we have advanced it a lot since then.

The equipment is why I feel like we have seen this movie before. It was mismatch in Iraq---and we didn't have the F-22 or the F-35 back in the Iraq War.

(04-25-2017 09:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 05:43 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  If China stays out the initial open warfare will be rough but within 90-100 days the outcome is inevitable. They have a conscript army which means they will already have motivation problems. They already have logistical problems in that they use varying types and sizes of ammunition for everything from their handguns to their heavy artillery that will only get worse once we establish initially air superiority then air supremacy and make it to where "if it moves it dies".

One thing that has always stood out to me is that even in the propaganda videos they release showing off their military might if you watch the vehicles a large number of them are burning oil like a 1969 F700 pulpwood truck, and this is the best of their equipment. Imagine what condition their average and sub-par units are in.

Add to that the fact that much of their equipment is 1950's to 1960's era technology like T-55 and T-62 tanks and their Chinese variants. This equipment couldn't hold up against our equipment in the Gulf War, and we have advanced it a lot since then.

The equipment is why I feel like we have seen this movie before. It was mismatch in Iraq---and we didn't have the F-22 or the F-35 back in the Iraq War.

Yeah, initially their artillery will pose a problem if only because they have so much of it. But between attrition from airstrikes and counter-battery fire and simple logistics each day the threat it poses diminishes, slowly at first then it will snowball to where it is rendered ineffective.

(04-25-2017 10:32 AM)I45owl Wrote:  North Korea is not led by a mad, irrational dictator. It is run by a cold, cynical, calculating, predictable, and consistent military class, of which Kim is part and parcel.

source?



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