Have to give props to Ossoff -- I really thought his ceiling was about 43% and he did significantly better than that. Still, though, he had a huge financial advantage, the GOP vote was split 4+ ways, and he only ran about 1.3 points ahead of HRC in the same district 5 months ago. I'd give the edge to Handel in June but only slightly. Ossoff victory no longer seems unthinkable.

I saw it mentioned about a thousand times during the campaign that "a Democrat hasn't held this seat in Georgia since the 1970's." That's true of "District 6", but the territory covered by District 6 has changed drastically since then. Every single preceinct, every square inch of the district that voted yesterday was represented exclusively by Democrats in Congress as recently as 1992. Newt moved there (and just barely won the GOP primary) in '92 after his old seat south of Atlanta got gerrymandered out of existence. That was the old 6th and it was rural/suburban with about 25% African American voters.

Hard to say, but I don't believe the "he doesn't live in the district" issue mattered much, if at all.

What are your thoughts on the run-off?

I don't think Ossoff wins. The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

I can't figure out why the dems picked him. A good candidate could beat Handel

I think JackOssoff will pull to a hard lead early, but will have expended too much energy, ultimately losing his grip on the election and blowing it in the end.

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

(04-19-2017 03:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

Most of the motivation IMHO comes from the need to try and make this a referendum on the Trump presidency by turning a Red district Blue.

(04-19-2017 03:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

How many Republicans do you think sat it out? I haven't read the details on the turnout but my assumption is that there was a really high Dem turnout for the first vote (ie, try to make a statement).

(04-19-2017 03:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

Uh-huh, I've heard that song before. The same thing was said about the recent Kansas special election, and we all saw what happened there. So forgive me if I toss the bolded statement into the scrap heap where it belongs.

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  What are your thoughts on the run-off?

I don't think Ossoff wins. The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

I did not follow the race well enough to know... Were the R's backbiting eachother? could be some hurt feelings by the GOP voters whose candidate did not make it through.

(04-20-2017 12:25 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  I did not follow the race well enough to know... Were the R's backbiting eachother? could be some hurt feelings by the GOP voters whose candidate did not make it through.

Yes on the backbiting and infighting. That was a huge factor. Also yes there could well be some hurt feelings. Impossible to say how much 'til we see the results in June. But among the top 4 GOP candidates who actually had any kind of serious organization, Handel was the most unifying choice the GOP could've picked.

(04-19-2017 03:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

The Republican turnout was excellent as well. Think I saw 43% total turnout for a special election. You don't get that with only one party showing up.

(04-19-2017 03:30 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-19-2017 02:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The R's will rally and the money will pour in. And I don't see any way Ossoff can generate the voter turnout a second time.

Raising $$$ has actually been a weak-spot for Handel in the past. But then, she was running against other Republicans. Not so this time, so we shall see. In her speech last night she did not mention Trump's name. Ask yourself if Trump is the sort of person to forgive/forget something like that.

The voter turn-out that Ossoff's campaign generated was genuinely amazing. Can he really do that again, 9 weeks later? Seems doubtful but the fact remains that (nationwide) Team Blue has never been this p*ssed and this motivated. So again, we shall see.

@Shere Khan: In terms of ideology, temperament and personal background, Handel is just about perfect for GA-06 in its current form. She's not weak.

All the GOP candidates got a combined 51% last night. I think she starts with an edge but this is not over by any stretch. And Ossoff will have tons of $$$, too.

I dont know how much of a trend it will represent. Kind of like an average baseball team beating a ranked ooc team mid week because they use their best pitcher while the ranked team saves its best for a weekend conf game

Local media is projecting that the overall campaign (primary + run-off) will have spent a combined $37 million by all candidates and outside groups. The most expensive US House seat, anywhere and ever.

I still think Handel is on track to win by about 5-7 points.

It's amusing to drive through other metro-Atlanta districts (esp. GA-04 and GA-05) and see all the hundreds of Ossoff signs. I'm sure you catch the attention of an occasional GA-06 voter who's commuting to work, but mostly it's just cheerleading from people who can't vote in this election.

37 million dollars. Good grief.

(05-29-2017 09:25 PM)shere khan Wrote:  37 million dollars. Good grief.

Makes sense when you consider the fact that Dems have a narrative they've been trying to set for months, but can't because they don't ever win anything.

37 million for a seat up again in a year. Insane

Even if dems win they won't hold in 18.

(05-29-2017 09:17 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Local media is projecting that the overall campaign (primary + run-off) will have spent a combined $37 million by all candidates and outside groups. The most expensive US House seat, anywhere and ever.

I still think Handel is on track to win by about 5-7 points.

It's amusing to drive through other metro-Atlanta districts (esp. GA-04 and GA-05) and see all the hundreds of Ossoff signs. I'm sure you catch the attention of an occasional GA-06 voter who's commuting to work, but mostly it's just cheerleading from people who can't vote in this election.

I feel MUCH better about GA 6 than I did about MT-AL or Kansaas.

Latest poll out shows Ossoff up by 7 and over 50 percent (but barely). http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/23/...ct-runoff/

The polls undercounted Ossoff in the primary election.

But there IS a problem with this poll...it shows Ossoff winning the male vote.

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Either way, this one, for whatever reason...FEELS like a Dem pickup. The other two....didn't.

(05-29-2017 09:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  37 million for a seat up again in a year. Insane

Even if dems win they won't hold in 18.

Even if the Dems lose, they'll be taking over in January 2019 in the House, in my estimation.

Remember, voters who voted for a new President aren't likely to bail on him for at least 9 months.

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There's a reason why everyone is spending like crazy on this election....because if the GOP loses it,...it will lead to a mass of retirements on the GOP side.

(05-29-2017 10:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 09:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  37 million for a seat up again in a year. Insane

Even if dems win they won't hold in 18.

Even if the Dems lose, they'll be taking over in January 2019 in the House, in my estimation.

Remember, voters who voted for a new President aren't likely to bail on him for at least 9 months.

----

There's a reason why everyone is spending like crazy on this election....because if the GOP loses it,...it will lead to a mass of retirements on the GOP side.

I don't see the dem winning men. That doesn't make any sense. The WSB poll earlier in the month had the GOP with a 3.5 lead. That sounds about right. I know they are different companies but an 11 point swing in a month is nuts for congressional race where neither candidate did anything of note

Local polls had Clinton winning Georgia. Even the local Dems knew that was nonsense. WSB is just not a reliable poll.

Race probably will be close.