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FWIW, Here's My Map
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green Offline
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Post: #81
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-01-2016 09:23 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Minnesota voted hard for Sanders.
Minnesota voted Rubio in the primary with Trump a pretty distant third.

But suddenly, Trump is going to take Minnesota?

[Image: minnesota_nice.jpg]

Republican candidate Donald Trump has won the first round of Minnesota’s mock election for high school students, narrowly beating out Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

Secretary of State Steve Simon announced Tuesday the results of the Minnesota Students Vote 2016, which showed the flamboyant businessman taking 34.97 percent of the vote. Clinton was close behind, with 32.89 percent.

More than 77,000 students from 213 high schools participated
-- http://minnesota.cbslocal.com

honor thy father and thy mother ...

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11-02-2016 10:13 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #82
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:11 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

259-246 Trump

Now he has some ways to get to 270.
1. Either flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia then he wins the election, other states don't matter if he achieves this.

2. Nevada (he's leading here currently), New Hampshire (trailing), and Maine's 2nd District gets him to 270.

3. Nevada and Colorado. He's trailing in Colorado, but moving closer. This may be his most realistic way of clinching.

4. Colorado and either New Hampshire or MaineCD2

If he locks up those three key states, he's in a decent spot.

I tend to agree. Unless there is a surprise in store for WI, MI, PA, VA, or NM, it seems like it is coming down to flipping Gary Johnson voters in Colorado. Trump should come out for legalizing pot on Friday. That ought to push him over the top there.

trump's for states' rights ...

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11-02-2016 10:16 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #83
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:16 AM)green Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:11 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

259-246 Trump

Now he has some ways to get to 270.
1. Either flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia then he wins the election, other states don't matter if he achieves this.

2. Nevada (he's leading here currently), New Hampshire (trailing), and Maine's 2nd District gets him to 270.

3. Nevada and Colorado. He's trailing in Colorado, but moving closer. This may be his most realistic way of clinching.

4. Colorado and either New Hampshire or MaineCD2

If he locks up those three key states, he's in a decent spot.

I tend to agree. Unless there is a surprise in store for WI, MI, PA, VA, or NM, it seems like it is coming down to flipping Gary Johnson voters in Colorado. Trump should come out for legalizing pot on Friday. That ought to push him over the top there.

trump's for states' rights ...

420 FRIENDLY

I have thought the same thing. I would be willing to bet personally he does not give a darn about keeping weed illegal.
11-02-2016 10:18 AM
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WalkThePlank Offline
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Post: #84
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
His Colorado message should be tax breaks, Pro Weed, and how he can win unlike Johnson.
11-02-2016 10:20 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #85
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:16 AM)green Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:11 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

259-246 Trump

Now he has some ways to get to 270.
1. Either flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia then he wins the election, other states don't matter if he achieves this.

2. Nevada (he's leading here currently), New Hampshire (trailing), and Maine's 2nd District gets him to 270.

3. Nevada and Colorado. He's trailing in Colorado, but moving closer. This may be his most realistic way of clinching.

4. Colorado and either New Hampshire or MaineCD2

If he locks up those three key states, he's in a decent spot.

I tend to agree. Unless there is a surprise in store for WI, MI, PA, VA, or NM, it seems like it is coming down to flipping Gary Johnson voters in Colorado. Trump should come out for legalizing pot on Friday. That ought to push him over the top there.

trump's for states' rights ...

420 FRIENDLY

I agree, but coming out for taking pot of the federal books would make a statement and would be consistent.
11-02-2016 10:21 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #86
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:18 AM)solohawks Wrote:  I have thought the same thing. I would be willing to bet personally he does not give a darn about keeping weed illegal.





https://regated.com/2016/10/donald-trump...candidate/

WikiLeaks released transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s private speeches to wealthy Wall Street bankers. In one of the speeches, she declared there is no plan to legalize it ‘in every sense of the word.’
-- regated.com

SOME SERIOUS MUNCHIES
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2016 10:32 AM by green.)
11-02-2016 10:27 AM
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Post: #87
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

Again, I don't usually resend info on polls, but the WRAL poll (according to HotAir's writing) has Trump up by 7 in NC.

Quote:I showed you a map over the weekend in which Trump won Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and stood at “only” 243 electoral votes; throw Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa on top of that and you can get him to 266. But if Hillary takes Colorado, she still wins the election. The fourth card Trump’s still looking for is a shift in Colorado or some blue-tilting state like Wisconsin or New Hampshire that’s supposed to be in the bag for Clinton. The trendlines over the past 72 hours are encouraging; we may yet get a poll this week showing that a bluish state is now purplish. (Er, in fact, that’s what this SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina is.) But that’s what you’re looking for before the upset bells really start ringing.
11-02-2016 10:43 AM
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WalkThePlank Offline
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Post: #88
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:43 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

Again, I don't usually resend info on polls, but the WRAL poll (according to HotAir's writing) has Trump up by 7 in NC.

Quote:I showed you a map over the weekend in which Trump won Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and stood at “only” 243 electoral votes; throw Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa on top of that and you can get him to 266. But if Hillary takes Colorado, she still wins the election. The fourth card Trump’s still looking for is a shift in Colorado or some blue-tilting state like Wisconsin or New Hampshire that’s supposed to be in the bag for Clinton. The trendlines over the past 72 hours are encouraging; we may yet get a poll this week showing that a bluish state is now purplish. (Er, in fact, that’s what this SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina is.) But that’s what you’re looking for before the upset bells really start ringing.

I'm aware of that. But I believe that +7 could be an outlier.
11-02-2016 10:55 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #89
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
If he wins 270 to 268 expect to see an unrelenting criticism of the Maine split congressional district electoral distribution
11-02-2016 10:55 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #90
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:55 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:43 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

Again, I don't usually resend info on polls, but the WRAL poll (according to HotAir's writing) has Trump up by 7 in NC.

Quote:I showed you a map over the weekend in which Trump won Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and stood at “only” 243 electoral votes; throw Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa on top of that and you can get him to 266. But if Hillary takes Colorado, she still wins the election. The fourth card Trump’s still looking for is a shift in Colorado or some blue-tilting state like Wisconsin or New Hampshire that’s supposed to be in the bag for Clinton. The trendlines over the past 72 hours are encouraging; we may yet get a poll this week showing that a bluish state is now purplish. (Er, in fact, that’s what this SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina is.) But that’s what you’re looking for before the upset bells really start ringing.

I'm aware of that. But I believe that +7 could be an outlier.

Based on oldnorthpolitics it seems it may be closer than the others
11-02-2016 10:56 AM
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WalkThePlank Offline
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Post: #91
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:56 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:55 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:43 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

Again, I don't usually resend info on polls, but the WRAL poll (according to HotAir's writing) has Trump up by 7 in NC.

Quote:I showed you a map over the weekend in which Trump won Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and stood at “only” 243 electoral votes; throw Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa on top of that and you can get him to 266. But if Hillary takes Colorado, she still wins the election. The fourth card Trump’s still looking for is a shift in Colorado or some blue-tilting state like Wisconsin or New Hampshire that’s supposed to be in the bag for Clinton. The trendlines over the past 72 hours are encouraging; we may yet get a poll this week showing that a bluish state is now purplish. (Er, in fact, that’s what this SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina is.) But that’s what you’re looking for before the upset bells really start ringing.

I'm aware of that. But I believe that +7 could be an outlier.

Based on oldnorthpolitics it seems it may be closer than the others

You think he really has a 7 point lead?
11-02-2016 10:58 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #92
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:58 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:56 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:55 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 10:43 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  
(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

Again, I don't usually resend info on polls, but the WRAL poll (according to HotAir's writing) has Trump up by 7 in NC.

Quote:I showed you a map over the weekend in which Trump won Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina and stood at “only” 243 electoral votes; throw Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa on top of that and you can get him to 266. But if Hillary takes Colorado, she still wins the election. The fourth card Trump’s still looking for is a shift in Colorado or some blue-tilting state like Wisconsin or New Hampshire that’s supposed to be in the bag for Clinton. The trendlines over the past 72 hours are encouraging; we may yet get a poll this week showing that a bluish state is now purplish. (Er, in fact, that’s what this SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina is.) But that’s what you’re looking for before the upset bells really start ringing.

I'm aware of that. But I believe that +7 could be an outlier.

Based on oldnorthpolitics it seems it may be closer than the others

You think he really has a 7 point lead?

Well Romney won by 2 and Trump is getting better early voting than Romney. I'll be safe and say 4 to 5
11-02-2016 11:00 AM
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WalkThePlank Offline
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Post: #93
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 11:00 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Well Romney won by 2 and Trump is getting better early voting than Romney. I'll be safe and say 4 to 5

Hopefully that's the case. I think he gets Ohio, Florida, and NC.
11-02-2016 11:02 AM
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DaSaintFan Offline
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Post: #94
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-02-2016 10:58 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  You think he really has a 7 point lead?

I don't know WTP.. again, I don't harp on any polls as being the truth

But, I thought you should see the one that HotAir wrote about, where Suffolk and AP polling units added a new question:

“Who do you think the media, including major newspapers and TV stations, would like to see elected president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?”

Quote:Of the 1,000 adults surveyed, 75.9 percent answered Clinton, while just 7.9 percent picked Trump, the Republican nominee. Just more than 16 percent of respondents chose either “neither” or “undecided.”

por:

When asked whether the media actively coordinated with the campaigns for its coverage,

Quote:only 47.8% said no. Another 38.8% believe that the media does coordinate with the campaigns, and another 12.6% could not be sure.

So you could argue that 1/3rd of America thinks the media is in the tank, with no ifs and or buts.
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2016 11:12 AM by DaSaintFan.)
11-02-2016 11:11 AM
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Post: #95
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
The polls are rigged. The media is making the polls look close simply to encourage Hillary voters to vote.
11-02-2016 11:20 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #96
RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(10-27-2016 12:38 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  MN will vote heavily blue. Probably WI as well.

Sorry.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...c-43321284

@realDonaldTrump in Tampa #FL: "we are doing well in so-called Democratic strongholds. We are going to Minnesota" (&CO MI WI PA NH NV)
-- @kellyannepolls (Trump campaign mgr)

VICTORY LAP
11-05-2016 12:43 PM
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green Offline
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RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
[Image: Cwf_0xcW8AA07L8.jpg]

President Barack Obama went into the final stretch of the 2016 campaign warning that Donald Trump is within range of winning, urging voters — particularly black voters, whose turnout is lagging — to see the Republican nominee as running an un-American, inhumane, racist campaign that must be stopped.
-- politico

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/ba...z4P9qPUA95

Max Power told us it was over ...
in august ...
who's full of sh_t now ..

TOLD YOU SO
11-05-2016 12:52 PM
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green Offline
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RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
[Image: WkJNX.png]

move nh into the win column ...

PENULTIMATE (NEXT TO LAST)
11-05-2016 12:56 PM
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RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
(11-05-2016 12:56 PM)green Wrote:  [Image: WkJNX.png]

move nh into the win column ...

PENULTIMATE (NEXT TO LAST)

My call Trump 270, Clinton 268 with Nevada in the above going to Trump.

Trump surge could get him to 325. Don't see Minnesota going to him. Clinton surge could leave him at 216 as NH, NC, FL will all be very close.

RCP has it 203-164 Clinton this morning. 297-241 Clinton in the no tossup map.
11-07-2016 07:59 AM
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EverRespect Offline
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RE: FWIW, Here's My Map
My final map.

[Image: NKyjd.png]

And my guess on the toss-ups.

[Image: boAkA.png]
11-07-2016 08:22 AM
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