(10-31-2016 08:55 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-31-2016 08:52 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-31-2016 08:33 PM)Max Power Wrote:  

(10-31-2016 07:15 PM)Kronke Wrote:  If you're wondering why I left Minnesota in play, MUH NATE has Trump just as likely to win MN as MI, and MI's latest poll has Clinton +1. I want updated polling in MN, and something more reputable than "Survey Monkey".

Wait a second. Did you just tout a SurveyMonkey poll showing Hillary +1 in Michigan, while dismissing a similar SurveyMonkey Minnesota poll because of the name? Because if so that's hilarious.

I didn't "tout" anything, but rather show the inconsistencies of the poll. If Clinton is +1 in Michigan and +9 in Minnesota, and MUH NATE says Trump's odds of winning both states is nearly identical, something is not adding up.

I want 10/31-11/6 from credible outlets.

Sampling error. SMis credible but no pollster is error proof.

I've read that the size of a guy's sigline is inversely proportional to the size of his dick.

(10-27-2016 12:38 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  MN will vote heavily blue. Probably WI as well.

Sorry.

Yup.

Early voting trends seem to suggest that Nevada is going to Hillary too.

(10-31-2016 08:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Max's map has a blue Georgia. Not sure what color the sky is above his map. He'll have to discuss that elsewhere at around 9 pm eastern time next Tuesday once Georgia is called.

"Blue skies over Mars"

(10-31-2016 08:51 PM)Stick4489 Wrote:  

LOL!

BTW, Connecticut and Rhode Island have at times been only in the lean Clinton. They are more likely to flip to Trump than NY. Delaware as well.

Now Vermont is more likely to go to Stein than to Trump.

(11-01-2016 09:23 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Minnesota voted hard for Sanders.
Minnesota voted Rubio in the primary with Trump a pretty distant third.

But suddenly, Trump is going to take Minnesota?

So Hillary lost and Trump lost in the primaries and that means that Trump must lose in the general?

(11-01-2016 11:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-01-2016 09:23 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Minnesota voted hard for Sanders.
Minnesota voted Rubio in the primary with Trump a pretty distant third.

But suddenly, Trump is going to take Minnesota?

So Hillary lost and Trump lost in the primaries and that means that Trump must lose in the general?

Surely! He was smug about it, so that means he knows.

(11-01-2016 11:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  So Hillary lost and Trump lost in the primaries and that means that Trump must lose in the general?

Probably, yes. It's not exactly going out on a limb to say so.

(11-01-2016 11:25 AM)Kronke Wrote:  Surely! He was smug about it, so that means he knows.

I was not smug about it. I was Minnesota Nice about it.

(10-27-2016 12:30 PM)green Wrote:  

YOU'LL SEE

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast#plus

as of right now ...
538's poll-plus forecast mirrors mine from last week ...
hold my hand ...
and I'll lead you to the promised land ...

SISTERS BROTHERS

what the over under on our friend Nate's site being 50-50 by the weekend

(11-01-2016 04:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  what the over under on our friend Nate's site being 50-50 by the weekend

Clinton campaign going up with 6-figures each in new ads in MI, NM, CO, VA, per campaign.
-- @abbydphillip

unless she stops the bleeding ...
fast ...

IT MIGHT BE IT COULD BE

Green, you really think Trump has a shot in WI?

He got beat in the primary there. The establishment GOP seems to thrive in WI

(11-01-2016 04:28 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Green, you really think Trump has a shot in WI?

He got beat in the primary there. The establishment GOP seems to thrive in WI

if memory serves me correctly ...
she got beat bad there, too ...
trump needs to flip 1 or 2 blue states totaling 9 or 10 electoral votes ...
go for broke ...
spread the field ...
force her to defend several all at once ...

HELLS YES

Yes/no?

(11-01-2016 10:27 PM)muffinman Wrote:  

Yes/no?

I would love to say Yes.. but just don't see it happening

(11-02-2016 08:42 AM)Greenroom Wrote:  

(11-01-2016 10:27 PM)muffinman Wrote:  

Yes/no?

I would love to say Yes.. but just don't see it happening

If FL, NC and Ohio really are in Trump's column, Nevada and Colorado look to be the thinnest ice there.

Trump really has to run he table. Democrats just have to breath and they are guaranteed both coasts, the upper Midwest and 250 EVs.

Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

259-246 Trump

Now he has some ways to get to 270.
1. Either flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia then he wins the election, other states don't matter if he achieves this.

2. Nevada (he's leading here currently), New Hampshire (trailing), and Maine's 2nd District gets him to 270.

3. Nevada and Colorado. He's trailing in Colorado, but moving closer. This may be his most realistic way of clinching.

4. Colorado and either New Hampshire or MaineCD2

If he locks up those three key states, he's in a decent spot.

(11-02-2016 09:19 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Trump really has to run he table. Democrats just have to breath and they are guaranteed both coasts, the upper Midwest and 250 EVs.

Well with WikiLeaks and the FBI, HRC is holding her breath.

And lately DJT is holding his tongue.

I think its going to be very close, but people could just turn against HRC, and all her crooked ways and above the law mentality, in the voting booth and Trump could well sweep the upper Midwest and states like Oregon and Connecticut.

Of course the opposite could happen and people could decide they couldn't stomach Trump and he lose all the swing states (Georgia is NOT a swing state).

Lawlessness or lack of civility?

(11-02-2016 09:46 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa are going to Trump...book it.

Must Win States: Ohio, NC, Florida
-He must get these three. Big swing states, looking good in Florida and Ohio. NC will be close but I think he gets it.

259-246 Trump

Now he has some ways to get to 270.
1. Either flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia then he wins the election, other states don't matter if he achieves this.

2. Nevada (he's leading here currently), New Hampshire (trailing), and Maine's 2nd District gets him to 270.

3. Nevada and Colorado. He's trailing in Colorado, but moving closer. This may be his most realistic way of clinching.

4. Colorado and either New Hampshire or MaineCD2

If he locks up those three key states, he's in a decent spot.

I tend to agree. Unless there is a surprise in store for WI, MI, PA, VA, or NM, it seems like it is coming down to flipping Gary Johnson voters in Colorado. Trump should come out for legalizing pot on Friday. That ought to push him over the top there.