(09-21-2016 08:51 AM)bullitt_60 Wrote: (09-20-2016 07:08 PM)bullitt_60 Wrote: (09-20-2016 06:52 PM)panama Wrote: There are not less college aged people IN GA.
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I was speaking nationally, but yes, Georgia's population growth rate is about .5% higher than the national average and I have no idea about that age group specifically. That's more math that I've signed up for but even if there is growth there, it has slowed.
(09-21-2016 08:11 AM)JCGSU Wrote: (09-21-2016 07:59 AM)bullitt_60 Wrote: (09-21-2016 07:42 AM)JCGSU Wrote: (09-20-2016 02:12 PM)bullitt_60 Wrote: There are less people in the college age group now than there were 5 years ago, hence the reduction in college applications. The total population is exponential growth while birth rates are cyclical. Here is a graph that helps explain:
![[Image: birth-rates-1920.png]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2012/11/birth-rates-1920.png)
See the peak around 1990? That's what I'm talking about. We've seen a decline of around 3% year-over-year of 18 year olds over the past five years. Oddly enough, there has been a decline of college applicants of about 3% year-over-year over the past 5 years. Note that these are big, round numbers that account for the entire US, not regions, etc. There is another peak around 2008, which is part of what Eagle22 is referencing with the 2025 goal.
In this case I used the term "baby boom" to refer to a peak in birth rates not the generation "Baby Boomers".
The state of GA has grown 500K since 2010.
Georgia Southern could add 5K tomorrow if we had the ability to do so. What is happening in Michigan has nothing to do with what is happening locally. People are having less kids but we have millions more having kids. If a 1M people had and average of 4 kids in 1950 and 5M people have and average of 2 kids now how is that going to result in less people? Birth rate is relevant if the population was the same.
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/13#
Where did you get that information from? I'm not saying it's impossible but, statistically speaking, highly improbable.
I was just using it as an example. Birth rate is only really relevant if the the two pouplation sizes are the same. We have over double the population I believe than we did in 1950. I get people are having less kids but birth rate is only one factor.
We are adding another person to the population every 11 seconds. That is net gain.
What your saying about overall population growth is correct but that doesn't necessary mean that the population of an age remains consistent with that growth. This chart might help show what I'm talking about: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html
You edited while I was posting, but I addressed these points in my original post and later in the thread. I've highlighted them above. I'm not referring to specifically to Georgia as that data isn't available and difficult to predict seeing as how we can move freely between states.
As I said, population growth is exponential and always increasing even if there is a decline in births between years. I put a green line on this chart from the CDC to represent population growth (sort of, as it would actually be a curve not a straight line) to help show what I'm talking about.
![[Image: 24zxixt.jpg]](http://i67.tinypic.com/24zxixt.jpg)
My overriding point is that yes, any school could add 5,000 students next year if they wanted but not without lowering standards to match the birth rate of applicants. That is, unless, we randomly get significantly smarter or go through another post WW2 baby boom.
If Georgia has 1M college age kids this year and and 1.01M the next it does not matter what the national birth rate is nor do you have to lower anything to grow the population significantly. Every age group in GA is growing the national trend is irrelevant and again the population sizes are not equal from the baby boom so while the growth rate my not be the same the actual number of people being added to the population per year might not be that different. We have less kids but we have double the amount of people than in 1950. So even if the birth rate was double we are still adding the same amount of children into the population than we were in 1950. I can't speak for the entire state but the North ATL metro area is booming again. They just opened a new high school in Gwinnett again and have the land to build another very soon.
For Gwinnett this is a list of High Schools the ones in bold have been built just since 2000. If I went back to the 70's when based on your chart the birth rate flattened out I think all but three or four schools would be on this list.
Archer High School 2600 +/- students
Berkmar High School
Brookwood High School
Central Gwinnett High School
Collins Hill High School
Dacula High School
Discovery High School 2000+/- students
Duluth High School
Grayson High School 2800 +/-students
Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science, and Technology[b] 1000 +/- 27th ranked in the country
[b]Lanier High School 1700+/- students
Meadowcreek High School
Mill Creek High School 3900+/- students
Mountain View High School 2100 +/- students
Norcross High School
North Gwinnett High School
Parkview High School
Peachtree Ridge High School 3400 +/- students
Phoenix High School 500 +/- (alternative school)
Shiloh High School
South Gwinnett High School
The worst traditional high school in Gwinnett has 29.6% college readiness score. So Gwinnett alone has added thousands of college ready kids during a slowing, flat or declining national birth rate. With as many homes being built there will be no less than three more high schools built in the next ten years. Either that or every high school will look like a trailer park. So specifically for the state of Georgia we are in no danger of having lower requirements or worry about any type of growth we want barring another economic meltdown.
Also Gwinnett now has an online campus. I recently appraised a home where three high school aged kids were enrolled. Both parents were college professors at Ga St. I cant find numbers on this.
I know it's not retiring baby boomers buying all these new single family homes and townhomes being built as fast as they were during the boom.
The declining and or flat national birth rate has had zero affect on this state's growth and or the enrollment numbers of any school in GA. This state and really southern region's growth has been opposite of your birth rate chart. This state's population and enrollment has been tied more closely with the economy than any national population trend. There is zero recent correlation with the national birth rate and GA's growth in any area.
