XLance
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I Root For: Carolina
Location: Greensboro, NC
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RE: Things to Know about Any Future Realignment
(02-01-2015 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote: (02-01-2015 01:56 PM)XLance Wrote: (01-31-2015 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote: (01-28-2015 09:21 PM)XLance Wrote: (01-27-2015 09:16 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote: I think OU will be in the B1G or SEC. I think OU has no desire for the ACC (and has suitors in the B1G, SEC, and PAC which are much better fits) and that was more of Texas seeing what the ACC was willing to do. The PAC really should have taken them last go around, now the B1G is talking with them and the SEC has been whispering in their ear for awhile. I think the PAC window has closed unless they take 6-8 schools to put political pressure on Texas and OU to take care of the little brothers.
I would think that Texahoma deal to the ACC would be more likely now, than in 2011, since the ACC already bent on academics with the UL add, so maybe OSU and TTU would have company at the academic bottom there. Then again, maybe that was all the academic heavyweights (Duke, UNC, UVA) in the ACC were willing to allow and the next adds will have to be more to the original ACC standard. That said I think that combo of 4 schools as sailed. I really think the only schools that fit the original ACC mold (before UL add) in the B12 are Texas, Kansas, Baylor, and TCU. I think the last two would be the most likely candidates to head to the ACC with Texas.
The Louisville addition was an anomaly. It satisfied several strategic objectives for the ACC.
The only Texahoma school that would have an opportunity to join the ACC would be Texas.
And that may be why the ACC continues to lag in revenue in the future. I'm sure ESPN is looking at ways to enhance your value, but the old core is resistant to the options that would cement football and relegate basketball therefore it is the attitudes of the basketball first schools that will likely keep a network at bay and near the end of your GOR could lead to instability again. But there is another option available to the network. They could keep the ACC relatively intact and simply break up the old basketball core.
When the ACC expanded to 12 there were talks with the PAC about a joint network, an opportunity for continuous broadcasting from noon till midnight. The ACC declined at that time, saying that they weren't ready. But those talks even though sporadic are ongoing. There are still ongoing conversations with the B1G.
The folks at Grandover will be well prepared if necessary to live life without and beyond ESPN.
As we move from a P5 to a P4 the TV monies will tend to even out over time, but that's not to say that a 60,000 seat stadium school would ever be able to match revenue with a school that has a football stadium seating 80,000 to 100,000, no matter how large the basketball arena is.
Has it occurred to you that your GOR wasn't signed so much to lock you into the ACC as it was to lock you in as ESPN property following the Maryland departure? That obligation doesn't expire until years after the new Big 10 contract is signed. It locks you into ESPN at ESPN's discretion, as does the SECN with our conference, and the LHN with Texas. Further realignment will be no more than rearranging the properties within the ESPN family with the possible exceptions of Oklahoma (FOX) and West Virginia (IMG). I still believe the PAC is a long shot for selling interest in its own network. A piece of Big 10 T1 is all ESPN is interested in. They won't part with prime property to get it either.
What is marketable from the PAC? U.S.C., U.C.L.A., Oregon, Washington, and sometimes Stanford. Is it worth buying content from all of the PAC to gain access to these schools when a simple split lease with FOX gives them what they want? No.
What is marketable from the Big 10? Ohio State, gap, Michigan, gap, Penn State, gap, Nebraska, gap, Wisconsin, bigger gap, Michigan State. The only games of content worth having here are games between those 5. Nobody nationally, and few regionally want to watch Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Rutgers, or Maryland. ESPN is money ahead to only have a part of the T1 here.
So as long as you are under contract to ESPN (2025 or thereabouts) none of these prospects you mention are feasible economically for the ACC. Besides, nobody hypes your schools like the Mouse. And with the fallout from realignment and the expense of tickets during an economic downturn, and at a time when Boomers head into retirement and the succeeding generation doesn't have the means of its predecessors, it is unlikely that these contracts will remain high for very long and upstart networks like FOX simply can't do for you what ESPN can.
So while I know there is truth in your words, I also know that you are past the point of no return on exercising any of those options, which now are just "what could have been" thoughts. To hold onto them as viable options is either delusion or fantasy. The duration of contracts for all involved and more importantly the valuations of the GOR's being predominantly in the hands of the networks holding them have effectively eliminated all else.
The Grandover Folks are well aware of our obligations that extend well into the middle of the next decade. Prudent management, however, is prepared for all contingencies.
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