(02-17-2014 03:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 03:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  The death of the Big 10 is inevitable. The only question is how long it takes. 10 years, 150 years? Same for the SEC.

This is a really stupid article, not worth the time to read. There is no reason to assume 10 members is too small since 10 was about the maximum size for a conference in the 60s-80s. And there is no reason to assume FBS wants an even number of power conferences. It had an even 6 just about a year ago.

The first time I read the Bleacher Report I thought it was a parody of Sports Journalism and almost appreciated it as such. When I found out they were serious I got an even bigger laugh. At least this one was fairly well written, even if its assumptions, as usual, were way off base. I have read, or tried to read, some of their reports where the grammar and sentence structure was so poor I wondered if their beat writer was a 4th grade kid.

There is only one scenario where the Big 12 goes away and that is (get ready a big if is coming here) "if" at least eight of their teams simultaneously get an offer too good to refuse.

On another site, somebody cited a BR ranking to support his smack talk. It seemed pretty off the wall, so I checked out the resume of the author. Turns out the only thing on that resume was that he was a recent graduate who had covered sports for one year for his D-III school's newspaper.

Many of these "reporters" are just unpaid stringers who get paid if BR decides to publish one of their stories. So if it turns out that one of them really is a 4th grade kid, I wouldn't be surprised.

That article is terrible.

Chewing..chewing... doesn't taste too good. The last section is absolutely ludicrous.

I don't think it is inevitable that the Big XII dies.

I do think it is reasonably likely that someday in the next 10-20 years that the P5 becomes the P4.

The fundamental problem in understanding what has happened is when the statement is made "Realignment is driven by TV" they hear "The TV networks have pushed conferences to realign" when the statement really is "In the drive to maximize television revenue conferences have made the decision to raid other conferences for members."

When the ESPN people say, they didn't tell anyone who to add but answered truthfully when asked about schools, I believe it.

Remember, the Big XII very nearly ceased to exist. TV didn't want it to happen, TV declared the Big XII too big to fail and ESPN and Fox poured cash into the Big XII to prevent its collapse.

A TV exec would rather see a world where there was still an ACC, Big 8, Big East, Big 10, Pac-10, SEC, SWC and a still relevant WAC that could put 3 teams in the Top 25.

If you miss on the SWC rights you can still be fairly effective drawing a TV audiences in Texas with the Big 8 and to a lesser degree SEC. If you miss the Big 8 rights you can still be effective in much of Missouri with the Big 10 and SEC.

Having 7 1/2 major conferences (I tab the WAC at a half once they lost the Arizona schools but still had BYU and Utah) was good for TV, you had more people you had to negotiate with but those people had less leverage. Hey the SEC doesn't want to play ball with you? So what? With the ACC, Big 8, SWC and even Big 10 you can nibble around the edges. You want own the Mississippi and Alabama markets but there will still be games of interest all around. If you can't get the Big 10 you can nibble around the edges with the Big 8 and Big East.

The WAC was the first casualty of the CFA collapsing. With a limited outlets at the time and small populations they were the natural loser and the MWC was a cherry pick of nearly all that value into a group of 8 rather than 16.

The SWC was the second victim first losing first Arkansas ahead of that in a failed attempt to lead UT and TAMU out and then the successful raid of the Big 8 consolidating what would have been the value paid 16 into 12.

The Big East essentially absorbed by the ACC is an example of the synergy that can be created. The Big East primarily existed in a market not wild about college football but paired with mid-Atlantic and southern schools in an area crazier about college football they became worth more and I would say that the tracks run both ways since outside North Carolina and Kentucky most of the south isn't hoops crazy as the northeast is pairing a group of southern basketball stars with schools in a region that really likes college hoops was a natural.

In the P5 you have fewer substitutions. If you lose the Big XII you make that up some with the SEC in the south and Big 10 in the north. But consolidation has shifted more power to the conferences.

If you had a four conference (no magic 16 or 20) world where one conference was dominant east of the Appalachians/Smokies, one was dominant across the south, one across the Midwest, one west of the Rockies there would be no effective substitute for any of those four. Failing to gain those rights means you lose the ratings battle on Saturday in that region and it isn't even close. You really only need three. If you have the power teams west of the Rockies in one league and the remainder of the nation in two divided roughly north/south (because of interest) you have incredible bargaining power.

TV may be willing to throw so much money into the system to prevent a P4 but I think the natural evolution is some form of consolidation when the next contracts start coming up in order to improve the leverage of the conferences.

Amazing is Miami wanting to be like a Hawaiian Island compared to the WVU Island. Just won't happen. Miami has Closer ties to N.Y., PA., MA. with Folks from those northern states living in South Florida than Texas and Oklahoma. Miami Dolphins even stayed in conference division with The Jets, Bills and Patriots.

Bleacher report is the PAC 12 Lacrosse of the sporting news world.

(02-17-2014 04:26 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Bleacher Report is the NATIONAL ENQUIRER of sports journalism.

(02-17-2014 06:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 05:56 PM)The Real LHS81 Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 03:51 PM)Proud Bammer Wrote:  Bleacher Report is the AAC of sports journalism.

Or the SEC Basketball of sports journalism. . . Kentucky and Florida's back must be getting tired from carrying the rest of the conference

Odd that the decline of SEC basketball to mid-major level coincides with their unprecedented football success. Its hard to imagine UK winning 21 games and not going to the NCAA like last year. Is their a cause and effect relationship? Basketball players don't want to go to "football" schools? Or maybe the good athletes are more likely than usual to choose football.

In the midwest/northeast Hoops gets the best athletes and once they start playing basketball and get involved in AAU play they stop playing football if they ever started to begin with. Hoops will get the kid who is 6-3/6-4 220-230 pounds and he'll be a big guard/small forward type.

That kid in the south will be a football player no doubt unless he's a Charles Barkley type talent

(02-17-2014 05:56 PM)The Real LHS81 Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 03:51 PM)Proud Bammer Wrote:  Bleacher Report is the AAC of sports journalism.

Or the SEC Basketball of sports journalism. . . Kentucky and Florida's back must be getting tired from carrying the rest of the conference

Speaking of hoops, the SMU program will have a decidedly Chicago flavor to it over the next few years as Larry Brown has been working metro Chicago like a fiend

IMO, if the B12 does in fact collapses, it won't be b/c UT or Oklahoma... I think Kansas and Kansas State may be the primary party's who will force action... Again, just MO.

I'm no fan of Bleacher Report and didn't even waste my time reading that article...however, I do truly feel the Big12's the next to collapse. I think the biggest reason they're staying at 10 is that it's easier to dissolve than if they add 2 more. For all the talk of the ACC's weaknesses, people seem to forget that it's been the BigXII losing members that've spurned the most conference realignment...or at least, started each wave. They lost 4 members and replaced them with 2. Members were already uneasy with the Longhorn Network, and now Texas is blatantly using it to screw other conference members (West Virginia, looking at you here). I wouldn't rule out schools such as Kansas, K-State, Texas Tech, OSU, or WVU having more attractiveness to other conferences than you guys are giving them credit for.

Further more, as I've touted on here before...do away with the BigXII and the P5 become the P4. Your conference championship games become your de facto Elite 8 thus expanding the playoff system without having to change anything AND you do away with pollsters and selection committees.

Some people think the post is about bleacher reports or this guys journalistic skills or lack of should I say, which is fine. But the post is about the premise of his article, for the B12 to avoid collapse, he saying, they need to have a P5 school shift to the B12 and some of his candidates were the Arizona schools, never will happen in my opinion Clemson, etc., his poor writng skills, does not invalidate the premise. What candidate school the B12 can be cull from the pack of P5 to come over to the B12, to provide further stability. Who or what school is the question, is the premise of the story. My candidate school is Arkansas, for the reason I posted earlier in this post.

(02-17-2014 11:25 PM)Policiious Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 06:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 05:56 PM)The Real LHS81 Wrote:  

(02-17-2014 03:51 PM)Proud Bammer Wrote:  Bleacher Report is the AAC of sports journalism.

Or the SEC Basketball of sports journalism. . . Kentucky and Florida's back must be getting tired from carrying the rest of the conference

Odd that the decline of SEC basketball to mid-major level coincides with their unprecedented football success. Its hard to imagine UK winning 21 games and not going to the NCAA like last year. Is their a cause and effect relationship? Basketball players don't want to go to "football" schools? Or maybe the good athletes are more likely than usual to choose football.

In the midwest/northeast Hoops gets the best athletes and once they start playing basketball and get involved in AAU play they stop playing football if they ever started to begin with. Hoops will get the kid who is 6-3/6-4 220-230 pounds and he'll be a big guard/small forward type.

That kid in the south will be a football player no doubt unless he's a Charles Barkley type talent

But that has always been that way. SEC basketball was pretty good from 1980 until the last few years.

(02-18-2014 08:17 AM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  Some people think the post is about bleacher repots or this guys journalistic skills or lack of should I say, which is fine. But the post is about the premise of his article, for the B12 to avoid collapse, he saying, they need to have a P5 school shift to the B12 and some of his candidates were the Arizona schools, never will happen in my opinion Clemson, etc., his poor writng skills, does not invalidate the premise. What candidate school the B12 can be cull from the pack of P5 to come over to the B12, to provide further stability. Who or what school is the question, is the premise of the story. My candiadte school is Arkansas, for the reason I posted earlier in this post.

Its his poor thinking and reasoning skills that invalidate the article, not the quality of his prose.

A major premise of the article is that there is momentum towards having 4 power conferences. As I've posted elsewhere, the current momentum seems to be towards an 8 team playoff, which eliminates the need for 4 power conferences.

Having said that, the existence of the B12, or at least its status as a power conference, remains entirely within the hands of Texas, which may at some point decide another conference option is more attractive.

(02-18-2014 08:17 AM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  Some people think the post is about bleacher reports or this guys journalistic skills or lack of should I say, which is fine. But the post is about the premise of his article, for the B12 to avoid collapse, he saying, they need to have a P5 school shift to the B12 and some of his candidates were the Arizona schools, never will happen in my opinion Clemson, etc., his poor writng skills, does not invalidate the premise. What candidate school the B12 can be cull from the pack of P5 to come over to the B12, to provide further stability. Who or what school is the question, is the premise of the story. My candiadte school is Arkansas, for the reason I posted earlier in this post.

I was kind in not replying to your first post. Arkansas is not going to take a cut in pay of nearly 15 million (with the SECN operative) to move to the Big 12. So that idea is just as far fetched as Arizona, Arizona State, Clemson, Florida State or any of the others. The only way the Big 12 lands P5 schools is if the Big 10 (joined by the SEC) is successful in raiding the ACC. Since the SEC won't get paid by ESPN to raid one of its own properties and since the Big 10 won't be taking 12 ACC schools (the amount needed to dissolve their GOR) that's not happening either.

The difference between ACC and Big 12 earnings is negligible. No ACC school is going to leave a conference (at great expense to themselves) to move laterally. Arizona and Arizona State are not going to take a cut in pay to leave a stable conference to move to a decimated Big 12.

What people were laughing at was his premise. He might as well have said the Big 12 will survive if Santa exists, unicorns show up, or UT finally admits that they have always loved the Aggies and pine for them every day. I think that is why we were calling his journalistic abilities into question (along with the specious history of his on line publication).

Another dumb article. The Big 12 delivers solid ratings even in a down year, competes well, and has bowl deals to keep their key schools paid on par with anyone. There is a GOR in place and nobody knows what the landscape would look like 10 years from now. I mean back in 2004 did anyone realistically see Missouri in the SEC, Rutgers in the B1G, or Louisville in the ACC? No.

Over a decade is a looooong time and the cable tv deals that are bankrolling realignment are going to see the markets they exist in change. That alone is one variable that could turn the tables on the common logic should it break a new way. One supreme court case in the 1980's basically turned the financial world in college athletics around from favoring regional leagues to favoring national appeal.

Just want to pile on that literally every sentence in that article was absolutely garbage. Totally ludicrous.

I agree with you JR, Arkansas leaving is a stretch, in all likely hood will never happen. Just for talking points, IMHO I was basing it on the historical ties and the need to be CFB relevant in making the new playoff system to have a shot at a NC, sometimes (emphasis on sometimes because this whole realignment stuff IMO has not been a totally rational process) glory overides money sometimes, especially for a fan base, as well as administrators, too. Being in a weaker B12 would make that more likely (being a big fish in a smaller pond, so to speak) to get into a playoff and a shot at a NC. Especially if the money gap could be closed with any move, because them shifting, would move some money over to the B12. I know it would be no where near the 15 mil range, but it would close the money gap some. Question is how much? Especially if they could cull a couple of P5 schools. If I was a conference Commish that is exactly the road I woud attempt first, before going to a G5. Correct me if I'm wrong, the SEC has no GOR.

To quote an athletic administrator a few years ago.

There will be a Big XII for at least as long as Texas wishes for there to be a Big XII.

A few years ago everyone was enamored with the idea of 12 teams, now its 14 or maybe its 16 or 20 I lose track.

There is no magic associated with the numbers.

Look at the old Big East just before its demise as we once knew it. The group turned down a TV deal went on the open market and basically got Shanghai'd. Everyone except UConn came out better than they were before financially, and that includes the basketball schools who moved to a smaller conference.

I suspect the SEC could make more money per team as a 12 or maybe even 10 team league, if it were the right 12 or 10 that gave you the right balance of reputation, performance and reach into markets.

Remember the Big XII came out of conversations where the SWC and Big 8 were going to jointly market their TV and had even offered to bolster their 7 game league schedules with a guaranteed inter-conference game for everyone. In their case, smaller beat bigger.

As noted before, when the Big XII was on the verge of collapse, TV threw a caravan of armored trucks at the them to prevent the Pac-12 from gaining even greater negotiating leverage and that was before the P12 undertook the biz of owning part of their rights and distributing them.

I know nothing of the journalistic integrity or skills of the person who wrote the initial piece but I can read it and see the author does not understand the market forces at play.