(01-19-2021 01:54 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
For those G5 fans who are salivating at the prospect of a 5-1-2 model for an expanded playoff, they may want to be careful what they wish for.
That one spot will most likely be instead of a guaranteed spot in the NY6, not an addition to it. And, if the first round of that playoff is played in Week 16, right after CCG week, the G5 team will likely be the sacrificial lamb for the #1 seed every year, sending them home with no New Years Bowl. Unless all bowl invites are delayed until after the quarterfinal playoff round, that game may be the only postseason they get. And I wouldn't count on that invite bringing in a bigger payday than they now get from the current CFP deal.
Not agreeing with the idea that in the 5-1-2 the G5 spot would be an automatic 1st round sacrificial lamb.
Often that G5 program will be ranked #8 to #12 in the country. Definitely good enough to take down a #1 team as it can happen all the time in the regular season.
Totally not the same situation as a #16 vs. #1 situation in the NCAAs where in 540 tries its happened only 1 time.
There has always been an argument that an undefeated G5 program should at least get a crack at a NC because there is a chance they are truly game for it.
Some of those Boise State teams statistically were among the very top performing teams on both sides of the ball, legit enough to think they'd have a shot at winning a title game.
1 vs 8 will likely be a 80+% win for the 1 seed. However over time as a particular G5 gets annually good the 8 seed will likely have years it's another P5 team as well.
It would be interesting to think if TV would pay more for an ability to pair off teams rather than strictly seed them. Basically tv partners have the ability to pair any of the top 4 against any of the bottom 4 to both avoid rematches and to draw out potential rivals or intriguing matchups.
(01-19-2021 02:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 01:54 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
For those G5 fans who are salivating at the prospect of a 5-1-2 model for an expanded playoff, they may want to be careful what they wish for.
That one spot will most likely be instead of a guaranteed spot in the NY6, not an addition to it. And, if the first round of that playoff is played in Week 16, right after CCG week, the G5 team will likely be the sacrificial lamb for the #1 seed every year, sending them home with no New Years Bowl. Unless all bowl invites are delayed until after the quarterfinal playoff round, that game may be the only postseason they get. And I wouldn't count on that invite bringing in a bigger payday than they now get from the current CFP deal.
You’re assuming that the New Years Day bowls won’t be the host for the 4 quarter final games.
Ideally, the quarter finals will all be played New Years Eve/Day, the semi’s 10-14 days later and the final the weekend prior to the Super Bowl.
I didn't assume that. That's why I said "
if the first round of that playoff is played in Week 16".
Given presidents' concerns about extending the season any further, and possible media reluctance to push the finals into direct competition with the NFL playoffs, I think a Week 16 quarterfinal is as likely as any alternative schedule. And I wouldn't rule out having the higher seeded teams host first round games on their home field as a way to address travel fatigue concerns for fans of playoff teams.
I doubt that the PTB will be motivated to improve the lot of the G5 out of the goodness of their hearts. They will do what they have to to keep the P5 cash cow happy.
(01-19-2021 01:39 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
Absolutely not. In that type of postseason setup if it is a G5 access spot than they'll likely already be matched up against the #1 seed why would they force an unnecessary game before going into that?
It's not unnecessary, it would add an element to "win your way in" to what otherwise would be a G5 beauty contest, a beauty contest in which better-known G5 would have an advantage over lesser known G5.
Look at this year: If there was going to be a G5 team in the playoffs, should Cincy have gotten it automatically, or should they have had to play Coastal for it? Obviously, playing Coastal would have been much fairer. Otherwise, Coastal would have been excluded on biases and perceptions just as G5 are often excluded based on biases when compared to P5 teams.
(01-19-2021 03:10 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]There has always been an argument that an undefeated G5 program should at least get a crack at a NC because there is a chance they are truly game for it.
Some of those Boise State teams statistically were among the very top performing teams on both sides of the ball, legit enough to think they'd have a shot at winning a title game.
The very top G5 teams have gotten worse the past 10 years. Back in 2008 - 2011, there were "G5" teams like Utah, TCU and Boise that were ranked in the top 5 by the BCS formula, indicating they would have belonged in an 8-team playoff.
But since the CFP, the quality of the top G5 teams has fallen off. IIRC, the only G5 team that would have merited a spot in an 8-team playoff using the BCS formula would have been UCF in 2018.
Truth is, the top G5 teams just are not as good as the top "non-AQ" teams were at the turn of the last decade. So if anything, the "need" to put them in the playoffs for competitive reasons has declined.
(01-19-2021 05:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 01:39 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
Absolutely not. In that type of postseason setup if it is a G5 access spot than they'll likely already be matched up against the #1 seed why would they force an unnecessary game before going into that?
It's not unnecessary, it would add an element to "win your way in" to what otherwise would be a G5 beauty contest, a beauty contest in which better-known G5 would have an advantage over lesser known G5.
Look at this year: If there was going to be a G5 team in the playoffs, should Cincy have gotten it automatically, or should they have had to play Coastal for it? Obviously, playing Coastal would have been much fairer. Otherwise, Coastal would have been excluded on biases and perceptions just as G5 are often excluded based on biases when compared to P5 teams.
Thats another week added logistically to the playoff schedule. If your going to do that you may as well make it a 16 team playoff.
(01-19-2021 03:26 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 02:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 01:54 PM)ken d Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
For those G5 fans who are salivating at the prospect of a 5-1-2 model for an expanded playoff, they may want to be careful what they wish for.
That one spot will most likely be instead of a guaranteed spot in the NY6, not an addition to it. And, if the first round of that playoff is played in Week 16, right after CCG week, the G5 team will likely be the sacrificial lamb for the #1 seed every year, sending them home with no New Years Bowl. Unless all bowl invites are delayed until after the quarterfinal playoff round, that game may be the only postseason they get. And I wouldn't count on that invite bringing in a bigger payday than they now get from the current CFP deal.
You’re assuming that the New Years Day bowls won’t be the host for the 4 quarter final games.
Ideally, the quarter finals will all be played New Years Eve/Day, the semi’s 10-14 days later and the final the weekend prior to the Super Bowl.
I didn't assume that. That's why I said "if the first round of that playoff is played in Week 16".
Given presidents' concerns about extending the season any further, and possible media reluctance to push the finals into direct competition with the NFL playoffs, I think a Week 16 quarterfinal is as likely as any alternative schedule. And I wouldn't rule out having the higher seeded teams host first round games on their home field as a way to address travel fatigue concerns for fans of playoff teams.
I doubt that the PTB will be motivated to improve the lot of the G5 out of the goodness of their hearts. They will do what they have to to keep the P5 cash cow happy.
Don't think there is any chance of that. They are trying to protect the bowls.
Some Big 12 coaches and ADs put out that idea and nobody backed them.
I think the G5 would prefer a quarterfinal game against #1 over a Peach/Cotton/Fiesta bowl vs. #10
Arguably the bowls mean more to P5 fans. I can see the "National Quarterfinalist" banners now.
(01-19-2021 07:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 05:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 01:39 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote: [ -> ] (01-19-2021 12:59 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote: [ -> ]As a group of 5 member, getting that coveted hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff spot has pretty much the same criteria as getting the automatic NY bowl spot in the world today.
1) You need to finish undefeated OR have the best record compared to the other Group of 5 schools.
2) You need to have the appearance of being better than any other undefeated or same record Group of 5 school.
That won't change while trying to get the 5-1-2 spot. I'm not sure why Boise State thinks they will have a better chance at getting that spot being in a conference of "the best-of-the-rest" when they (and everyone else in that conference) will have a better chance of losing a game or two throughout the year. Their best chance for being undefeated is being in a more watered-down conference like the Mountain West. Have a couple good match ups to boost the resume and then hope the ACC doesn't have an undefeated team that looks better than they do.
This "best-of-the-rest" conference would have to be perceived as being far superior to the other Group of 5 conferences (like todays world of a 2-loss SEC team "obviously" being better than any Group of 5 team) to have their non-undefeated champion get the playoff spot. If that's not the case, then an undefeated Western Michigan-type school would likely get that playoff spot.
Or better yet, take the top 2 ranked Group of 5 members and have them duke it out for that spot.
Absolutely not. In that type of postseason setup if it is a G5 access spot than they'll likely already be matched up against the #1 seed why would they force an unnecessary game before going into that?
It's not unnecessary, it would add an element to "win your way in" to what otherwise would be a G5 beauty contest, a beauty contest in which better-known G5 would have an advantage over lesser known G5.
Look at this year: If there was going to be a G5 team in the playoffs, should Cincy have gotten it automatically, or should they have had to play Coastal for it? Obviously, playing Coastal would have been much fairer. Otherwise, Coastal would have been excluded on biases and perceptions just as G5 are often excluded based on biases when compared to P5 teams.
Thats another week added logistically to the playoff schedule. If your going to do that you may as well make it a 16 team playoff.
It would have been tough logistically in a year like this, when everything was pushed back two weeks because of the virus. But in a normal year with CCGs being played on around December 5, I don't think so.