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Looks like we could possibly remain a #3 seed. However, if we fall to a #4 we won't be in with Minnesota because they would get the #16 and we wouldn't be in with Denver because of not having a league matchup in the first game. So we would get Michigan/BU or Quinnipiac.

Lots to be decided yet, but highly unlikely to miss the NCAA.

Interestingly, the NCHC could have three upsets in the first round. Omaha/NoDak winner won't really matter too much but St. Cloud winning would be better for us.

The doomsday senario seems to be if Colgate - ECAC, Northern Michigan - CCHA, Omaha, CC, NoDak, UMD - NCHC, and Province, UMass-Lowell - HE, all win their titles. That would push the first at large team to be 11th.

There is also a slim chance WMU falls further down the PWR with Cornell or Minnesota State passing us on RPI. I haven't seen how the rest of the games play out. It will be a bit clearer once the NCHC Sunday games are completed.

(03-12-2023 10:19 AM)WesternDave Wrote:  The doomsday senario seems to be if Colgate - ECAC, Northern Michigan - CCHA, Omaha, CC, NoDak, UMD - NCHC, and Province, UMass-Lowell - HE, all win their titles. That would push the first at large team to be 11th.

There is also a slim chance WMU falls further down the PWR with Cornell or Minnesota State passing us on RPI. I haven't seen how the rest of the games play out. It will be a bit clearer once the NCHC Sunday games are completed.

We really need Harvard to beat Cornell & Mass-Lowell to beat Merrimack in the SF. Cornell & Merrimack can pass us in the PairWise & move us closer to elimination.

I don’t think the CCHA winner matters. If Northern wins, we finish ahead of Minnesota St. Regardless of outcome, the CCHA is getting two teams in ahead of us: Tech & Tournament Champion.

(03-12-2023 10:37 AM)BroncoMinor Wrote:  

(03-12-2023 10:19 AM)WesternDave Wrote:  The doomsday senario seems to be if Colgate - ECAC, Northern Michigan - CCHA, Omaha, CC, NoDak, UMD - NCHC, and Province, UMass-Lowell - HE, all win their titles. That would push the first at large team to be 11th.

There is also a slim chance WMU falls further down the PWR with Cornell or Minnesota State passing us on RPI. I haven't seen how the rest of the games play out. It will be a bit clearer once the NCHC Sunday games are completed.

We really need Harvard to beat Cornell & Mass-Lowell to beat Merrimack in the SF. Cornell & Merrimack can pass us in the PairWise & move us closer to elimination.

I don’t think the CCHA winner matters. If Northern wins, we finish ahead of Minnesota St. Regardless of outcome, the CCHA is getting two teams in ahead of us: Tech & Tournament Champion.

Yeah, sorry Merrimack not Minnesota State. Since I don't think MinnSt can pass us without also winning the CCHA.

And yes, root for all favorites already above us in the PWR and all is good. The doomsday senario is a very small possibility.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WMUHFP/status...6976073729

Looks like we are 100% in.

In all reality, there isn’t much difference between the 2-3 seed other than home or away. Had we made it to Minneapolis we are likely a 2 seed, maybe even winning the FF, we weren’t getting a 1 seed this year.

So Penn state, Ohio state, or Harvard.

We can beat anyone of those teams.

Get us in the quinnipiac region.

We can do this.

As always this assumes that no tournament upsets occur. The only AQ so far is canisius (or holy cross) in the 16th seed.
On CHN's predictor I couldn't find a senario where WMU does not make the field. There are a few that bring WMU into the last AQ spot, but they always make the field as the 13th or 14th team. I've seen on twitter that the site might not be 100% accurate, so I'll wait for later tonight to see if that's true or not. Either way, here is this week's guesses.


fargo
1 minnesota
16 canisius

8 saint cloud
9 ohio st

manchester
4 michigan
13 minnesota state

5 boston u
12 cornell

bridgeport
3 quinnipiac
14 merrimack

6 harvard
11 western michigan

allentown
2 denver
15 alaska

7 penn st
10 michigan tech

Changes:
a)break up 9 osu 8psu, while moving 8 psu to allentown.
8 psu/7 scsu swap.

b)move 2 quinnipiac to bridgeport.
2 qpac/3 denver swap


Done.

WMU is safe.

There are up to 5 non qualifying AQ possibilities that exist, if a scenario where all five happened that would be seeds, 12,13,14,15,16. WMU is at 11, but in order for those 5 scenarios to play out the teams still playing in those spots currently will have to lose, so they can't jump us.

The real question is will WMU get a 3 seed or a 4 seed. I think we'll hold on to a 3 but certainly could fall to a 4 if Minn St and Cornell win their tourneys. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that we still pass Michigan Tech, the CCHA only has 1 more game to play and the NCHC has 3 games left to play. I haven't looked close enough at what combination of outcomes suits us better, but the difference is razor thin. WMU's finishing range appears to be 10-14, but we can't fall to 14 if the 5 non qualifying AQ scenario occurs.

If I had to make a guess I think the bottom will play out like this.

10. Minn St
11. WMU
12. Tech
13. Merimack
14. Cornell
15. Alaska
16. Atlantic Hockey Winner

Obviously in this situation Alaska is the one in the most danger, and WMU gets a 3 seed likely playing Harvard or BU (maybe Penn St)

(03-13-2023 07:07 AM)Doo Wrote:  WMU is safe.

There are up to 5 non qualifying AQ possibilities that exist, if a scenario where all five happened that would be seeds, 12,13,14,15,16. WMU is at 11, but in order for those 5 scenarios to play out the teams still playing in those spots currently will have to lose, so they can't jump us.

The real question is will WMU get a 3 seed or a 4 seed. I think we'll hold on to a 3 but certainly could fall to a 4 if Minn St and Cornell win their tourneys. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that we still pass Michigan Tech, the CCHA only has 1 more game to play and the NCHC has 3 games left to play. I haven't looked close enough at what combination of outcomes suits us better, but the difference is razor thin. WMU's finishing range appears to be 10-14, but we can't fall to 14 if the 5 non qualifying AQ scenario occurs.

If I had to make a guess I think the bottom will play out like this.

10. Minn St
11. WMU
12. Tech
13. Merimack
14. Cornell
15. Alaska
16. Atlantic Hockey Winner

Obviously in this situation Alaska is the one in the most danger, and WMU gets a 3 seed likely playing Harvard or BU (maybe Penn St)

How does Western pass Tech?

(03-13-2023 09:17 AM)BroncoMinor Wrote:  

(03-13-2023 07:07 AM)Doo Wrote:  WMU is safe.

There are up to 5 non qualifying AQ possibilities that exist, if a scenario where all five happened that would be seeds, 12,13,14,15,16. WMU is at 11, but in order for those 5 scenarios to play out the teams still playing in those spots currently will have to lose, so they can't jump us.

The real question is will WMU get a 3 seed or a 4 seed. I think we'll hold on to a 3 but certainly could fall to a 4 if Minn St and Cornell win their tourneys. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that we still pass Michigan Tech, the CCHA only has 1 more game to play and the NCHC has 3 games left to play. I haven't looked close enough at what combination of outcomes suits us better, but the difference is razor thin. WMU's finishing range appears to be 10-14, but we can't fall to 14 if the 5 non qualifying AQ scenario occurs.

If I had to make a guess I think the bottom will play out like this.

10. Minn St
11. WMU
12. Tech
13. Merimack
14. Cornell
15. Alaska
16. Atlantic Hockey Winner

Obviously in this situation Alaska is the one in the most danger, and WMU gets a 3 seed likely playing Harvard or BU (maybe Penn St)

How does Western pass Tech?

There is a couple senarios where WMU passes MTU. A wild one I found was with CC winning the NCHC over SCSU.
Edit: Looking a little deeper it seems NMU winning the CCHA is bad for MTU's PWR.

FYI there is a very slim chance WMU misses out as the last team out.
All of the following have to happen for that to be true.

Cornell wins it's semi final game

CC or UND win the NCHC

Minnesota State wins the CCHA

Colgate wins the ECAC

Merrimack wins the Hockey East.

If any of those things don't happen, i'm pretty sure WMU is a lock.

I still have WMU in the tourney in that scenario, and so does CHN, who I’m sure is better at this than I am.

My info came from the chn Twitter, and I verified with the you are the Comittee tool. If they updated it since then and I'm wrong, then awesome!

Western missing the NCHC tournament makes me sad . UND missing the the frozen faceoff makes me happy . I guess I can't have it all .

CCHA Championship: Minnesota State def. Northern Michigan
ECAC Semifinal #1: Colgate def. Quinnipiac
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell def. Harvard
ECAC Championship: Colgate def. Cornell
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence def. Boston University
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Merrimack def. Mass.-Lowell
Hockey East Championship: Merrimack def. Providence
Atlantic Hockey Championship: Holy Cross def. Canisius
Big Ten Championship: Minnesota def. Michigan
NCHC Semifinal #1: Colorado College def. Denver
NCHC Semifinal #2: North Dakota def. St. Cloud State
NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Colorado College

Leaves WMU at 14th with the first 13 and #16 North Dakota, #25 Colgate and #42 Atlantic Hockey in.

That's literally all upsets, though.

(03-13-2023 05:12 AM)WesternDave Wrote:  As always this assumes that no tournament upsets occur. The only AQ so far is canisius (or holy cross) in the 16th seed.
On CHN's predictor I couldn't find a senario where WMU does not make the field. There are a few that bring WMU into the last AQ spot, but they always make the field as the 13th or 14th team. I've seen on twitter that the site might not be 100% accurate, so I'll wait for later tonight to see if that's true or not. Either way, here is this week's guesses.


fargo
1 minnesota
16 canisius

8 saint cloud
9 ohio st

manchester
4 michigan
13 minnesota state

5 boston u
12 cornell

bridgeport
3 quinnipiac
14 merrimack

6 harvard
11 western michigan

allentown
2 denver
15 alaska

7 penn st
10 michigan tech

Changes:
a)break up 9 osu 8psu, while moving 8 psu to allentown.
8 psu/7 scsu swap.

b)move 2 quinnipiac to bridgeport.
2 qpac/3 denver swap


Done.

The funny thing is I like this bracket better than the ones when we were #8 or #9.

(03-13-2023 06:19 PM)Sup Wrote:  Western missing the NCHC tournament makes me sad . UND missing the the frozen faceoff makes me happy . I guess I can't have it all .

North Dakota made the frozen face off, they beat Omaha in 3 games.

(03-13-2023 09:02 PM)BroncoMinor Wrote:  

(03-13-2023 05:12 AM)WesternDave Wrote:  As always this assumes that no tournament upsets occur. The only AQ so far is canisius (or holy cross) in the 16th seed.
On CHN's predictor I couldn't find a senario where WMU does not make the field. There are a few that bring WMU into the last AQ spot, but they always make the field as the 13th or 14th team. I've seen on twitter that the site might not be 100% accurate, so I'll wait for later tonight to see if that's true or not. Either way, here is this week's guesses.


fargo
1 minnesota
16 canisius

8 saint cloud
9 ohio st

manchester
4 michigan
13 minnesota state

5 boston u
12 cornell

bridgeport
3 quinnipiac
14 merrimack

6 harvard
11 western michigan

allentown
2 denver
15 alaska

7 penn st
10 michigan tech

Changes:
a)break up 9 osu 8psu, while moving 8 psu to allentown.
8 psu/7 scsu swap.

b)move 2 quinnipiac to bridgeport.
2 qpac/3 denver swap


Done.

The funny thing is I like this bracket better than the ones when we were #8 or #9.

yep. Its all about match ups. U can throw the seedings out the window, they don't matter.

If all favorites win, I have the following region for us.


1. Boston U v. 4 Cornell

2. Michigan v. 3. WMU

@ Bridgeport Conn.

The brightest spot for WMU nobody is talking about is the week off. They have some nagging injuries and this is a good time to regroup

(03-15-2023 07:22 AM)Doo Wrote:  If all favorites win, I have the following region for us.


1. Boston U v. 4 Cornell

2. Michigan v. 3. WMU

@ Bridgeport Conn.

Yeah, sorry. The one I posted was simply the current PWR into a bracket. It didn't have this weekend's results if all favorites won.