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Week of Feb 20 Penrose / NCHC Post

A lot of questions were answered this week. While final seeding is still up for grabs a lot less to figure out in the fight for the Penrose and the NCHC tourney.

8. Miami. Miami has been eliminated from the Penrose and hosting, and unfortunately for them they are locked into the basement. Who they play is the only question now.

7. CC. CC still has the ability to move up in seeding, but they have also been eliminated from the Penrose or hosting. They also posses the hardest remaining schedule, and appear destined for 7th, but it's possible they could finish as high as 5th.

6. NoDak. NoDak has also been eliminated from the Penrose and hosting in the NCHC. They can finish anywhere between 5th and 7th.

5. Duluth. Duluth is the team on the outside looking in, but at least they still have something to look at. Duluth has been eliminated from the Penrose, but they do still have the math available to them to host, but they need a lot of help. They need SCSU to not achieve 3 points this weekend, and they need to sweep Miami. Next week SCSU and Duluth play, it's a big mountain to climb. So Duluth can finish as high as 4th or as low as 7th right now.

4. SCSU. SCSU Can finish anywhere between 1st and 5th right now, both 1st and 5th would take some doing. Odds are they are finishing between 2 and 4. SCSU only needs to secure 3 points the rest of the way to lock up home ice. They have 4 challenging games ahead, but it's hard to see them not finding 3 points.

3. Omaha. Omaha has locked up home ice, and is still mathematically alive for the Penrose. Quite impressive season for Omaha so far. Omaha can finish between 1 and 4.

2. WMU WMU has been hot lately, and will need to finish just as hot to win the Penrose. Exciting for WMU they control their destiny. If they win out they get the Penrose, but any points awarded to Denver this weekend will make it hard on the Broncos. WMU has locked up home ice and can finish anywhere between 1 and 4.

1. Denver Denver is in the drivers seat and like WMU controls it's destiny. Denver could wrap up the Penrose this week with a strong showing, but they do possess the hardest remaining schedule of all teams. Denver could still fall to 4th.

Based on the difficulty of schedules, my updated predictions for final standings, mirror the current set up. But as you saw above a lot of seeding can shuffle still, a point or two might be the difference between 5,6,7 and 2,3,4. ( tiebreakers might come in to play too)

1st or 2nd is ideal for the broncos, you dont want to have to face Nodak or Duluth in the opening NCHC round, can we beat them and send them home? Sure, but I'd much rather have CC or Miami, who both are not as dangerous and really dont see either one of them sending us home but I could see Nodak or Duluth upsetting us.

From the ECH (Everything college hockey blog).

Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Boston University

Allentown, PA: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #14 Northeastern, #7 Penn State vs. #10 Harvard

Manchester, NH: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Omaha, #6 Western Michigan vs. #11 Michigan Tech

Bridgeport, CT: #4 Denver vs. #15 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Minnesota State


I would be ok with this setup, Omaha a team that could certainly upset scUM and although we handled Tech in the GLI, they would certainly want revenge, wouldnt expect that game to be another 8-1 crushing.

Depending on how this weekend goes and the NCHC playoffs, we certainly still have a shot at a #1 seed and could slide in to the Brigeport regional as the #1 seed.

(02-22-2023 11:24 AM)Broncodan Wrote:  From the ECH (Everything college hockey blog).

Fargo, ND: #1 Minnesota vs. #16 RIT, #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Boston University

Allentown, PA: #2 Quinnipiac vs. #14 Northeastern, #7 Penn State vs. #10 Harvard

Manchester, NH: #3 Michigan vs. #13 Omaha, #6 Western Michigan vs. #11 Michigan Tech

Bridgeport, CT: #4 Denver vs. #15 Cornell, #5 St. Cloud State vs. #12 Minnesota State


I would be ok with this setup, Omaha a team that could certainly upset scUM and although we handled Tech in the GLI, they would certainly want revenge, wouldnt expect that game to be another 8-1 crushing.

Depending on how this weekend goes and the NCHC playoffs, we certainly still have a shot at a #1 seed and could slide in to the Brigeport regional as the #1 seed.

I hate it. But, there are so many wonky scenarios this year that are going to cause controversial placements.

There are so many B1G & NCHC teams in the top 10 & Penn St has to be placed in the Allentown, PA Region.

If 4 NCHC teams make the Tournament, they should be in 4 different regions. They always ensure this occurs for the B1G. But, the NCHC always gets screwed. I should just get ready for the screwing.

My largest complaint about the ECH one is that I can't see Quinnipiac getting sent to anywhere other than Bridgeport if they are a first seed.

From the one I posted earlier this week if I were to change anything I'd move tOSU/BU into Manchester from Fargo, and move SCSU/MinnSt into Fargo. But that might be too much bracket integrity damage. The good thing is that that pairwise isn't the one they're going to need to use, so there is plenty better ways the bracket could land in a month.

@BM - The B10 gets better spots because they have more fans. It's the sad truth to the beast. They give NoDak and Denver preference because of their fan bases. The rest of us less so. WMU will be moved out east until we bid to host a regional in Grand Rapids again. But even then there is a very high chance that a B10 team (Michigan, MSU, tOSU, NoDames) will be sent there too, because money.

Tickets for the playoff series in two weeks are selling fast.

Friday there are a "decent" amount of seats left.

Saturday, there isnt much left.

(02-22-2023 05:09 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  Tickets for the playoff series in two weeks are selling fast.

Friday there are a "decent" amount of seats left.

Saturday, there isnt much left.

Just checked this morning, Saturday is effectively sold out. A few sections have just single tickets and others have scattered 2 or 3 seat blocks but only a few dozen seats overall left.

That sucks because I might actually be able to go to my first game of the season Saturday, but I won't know until the week of, and Friday I can't go at all because my kid has a game that night.

(02-23-2023 07:56 AM)moe24 Wrote:  

(02-22-2023 05:09 PM)Broncodan Wrote:  Tickets for the playoff series in two weeks are selling fast.

Friday there are a "decent" amount of seats left.

Saturday, there isnt much left.

Just checked this morning, Saturday is effectively sold out. A few sections have just single tickets and others have scattered 2 or 3 seat blocks but only a few dozen seats overall left.

That sucks because I might actually be able to go to my first game of the season Saturday, but I won't know until the week of, and Friday I can't go at all because my kid has a game that night.

I'm in the same boat, Little Ceasers' state finals are that weekend, and we still have 4 games left to see if we qualify so I can't commit to buying WMU tickets yet.

USCHO projected brackets.

Please let these be the brackets.

Fargo
Minnesota
Ohio State
Michigan Tech
RIT

Allentown
Michigan
Penn State
Minnesota State
Omaha

Bridgeport
Quinnipiac
Western Michigan
Boston University
Cornell

Manchester
Denver
St. Cloud State
Harvard
Northeastern

They can't be the brackets since they never solved the Qu/Cornell matchup. USCHO writing is a joke. Zero mention of WMU vs Denver this weekend. Yes, I know the death of UNO's broadcaster is awful and needs to be mentioned, but to just ignore the biggest series in the NCHC this season is asinine.

(02-23-2023 03:59 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  They can't be the brackets since they never solved the Qu/Cornell matchup. USCHO writing is a joke. Zero mention of WMU vs Denver this weekend. Yes, I know the death of UNO's broadcaster is awful and needs to be mentioned, but to just ignore the biggest series in the NCHC this season is asinine.

There's a reason Adam Wodon left and started CHN.

(02-23-2023 04:01 PM)moe24 Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 03:59 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  They can't be the brackets since they never solved the Qu/Cornell matchup. USCHO writing is a joke. Zero mention of WMU vs Denver this weekend. Yes, I know the death of UNO's broadcaster is awful and needs to be mentioned, but to just ignore the biggest series in the NCHC this season is asinine.

There's a reason Adam Wodon left and started CHN.

CHN has been far superior for years/decades. Dang I'm old.

Yes, I agree with all thoughts above.

CHN much better than USCHO.

Wodon has even recently moved to Denver, so you get an even more balanced summary of college hockey across the country. USCHO still thinks college hockey is only played on the east coast.

The new guys on the block, EVERYTHING COLLEGE HOCKEY, love to hype up Western & the Lunatics.

(02-23-2023 07:07 PM)BroncoMinor Wrote:  Yes, I agree with all thoughts above.

CHN much better than USCHO.

Wodon has even recently moved to Denver, so you get an even more balanced summary of college hockey across the country. USCHO still thinks college hockey is only played on the east coast.

The new guys on the block, EVERYTHING COLLEGE HOCKEY, love to hype up Western & the Lunatics.

I love ECH, they are great and are fair with everyone, no bias.

I like their idea of college hockey game day.

Late night guessing.
Start with seeds as the PWR has them.
1's minnesota, quinnipiac, denver, michigan
2's st cloud, boston u, harvard, penn st.
3's ohio st, Western Michigan, michigan tech, alaska
4's cornell, notre dame, minnesota state, rit

Place into regions. With some funny business where I'll get to later.

FARGO, ND
1 minnesota
16 rit - atlantic hockey rep

8 penn state
9 ohio state

ALLENTOWN, PA
2 quinnipiac
15 minnesota state

7 harvard
10 Western Michigan

MANCHESTER, NH
3 denver
14 notre dame

6 boston university
11 michigan tech

BRIDGEPORT, CT
4 michigan
13 cornell

5 st cloud
12 alaska fairbanks


Move 8 penn state to allentown since they're the host. They replace 7 harvard. Now I'm going to move 2 quinnipiaic into the CT regional since it is much easier to do it now.
Yes it does lower them two spots based off PWR, but think it is reasonable after seeing who is in the bracket with them. They replace 4 michigan.
Finally move 13 cornell and 14 notre dame since I made a new ECAC first round matchup.

So here is the guess.


FARGO, ND
1 minnesota
16 rit - atlantic hockey rep

8 harvard
9 ohio state

ALLENTOWN, PA
2 michigan
15 minnesota state

7 penn state
10 Western Michigan

MANCHESTER, NH
3 denver
14 cornell

6 boston university
11 michigan tech

BRIDGEPORT, CT
4 quinnipiac
13 notre dame

5 st cloud
12 alaska fairbanks

Dropped to #8 in the polls, which was kind of expected.

Just win this weekend and see what happens for NCHC playoffs.

NCHC/Hockey East finished their regular season this week. Atlantic Hockey/B10/CCHA/ECAC finished their first round playoff series.
Start by placing into regions. As typical penn state hosting allentown creates problems - since they're paired into minnesota's bracket which should go to fargo as the closest regional to the #1 overall seed. michigan state is the first out due to atlantic hockey auto qualifier.

fargo, nd
1 minnesota
16 rit

8 psu
9 wmu

allentown
2 qpac
15 merrimack

7 scsu
10 osu

bridgeport, ct
3 denver
14 cornell

6 harvard
11 mtu


manchester, nh
4 mich
13 alaska

5 bu
12 minn st

First move penn state to allentown. Moving the entire matchup since it is nchc/b10 on both sides.
Also moving qpac to bridgport for attendance reasons. That's pretty much it.
fargo, nd
1 minnesota
16 rit

8 scsu
9 osu

allentown
2 denver
15 merrimack

7 psu
10 wmu

bridgeport, ct
3 qpac
14 cornell

6 harvard
11 mtu


manchester, nh
4 mich
13 alaska

5 bu
12 minn st

Bummer certainly but the loss likely drops us out of the 8/9 line and a likely region with Minnesota. Might even get lucky and get in Michigans region now.

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/163473...kiekSOsLXQ

Minnesota needs to beat Sparty tonight.