(12-15-2017 12:22 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:12 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Wichita State fans are so thinned skin it's insane. I have so much respect for that program. I went to Winthrop my freshman year of college when Marshall was there and have so much respect for him as a coach. I wanted UC to go after him after the Huggins fiasco. I thought he was a superstar waiting to happen. The Wichita State program was solid prior though it had fallen off a little, but he has it at an amazing place. I think Marshall is a top 5 coach in college basketball and think Wichita is a legit top ten team this year. It's just hilarious to me that if you don't think the Shockers are going to run the table in the AAC this year or think they aren't the no doubt, obvious conference champions Wichita State fans seem to think you're pissing all over them.

It's not just us, it's the entire national media. Had we not performed on the road without McDuffie in the OOC, I would have tempered my expectations a bit. But now having won at Baylor and OSU without an integral part of our team... yeah... I'm pretty confident. I mean, we're #3 for cryin' out loud.

I don't know about thin-skinned, but I'm still peeved about the coaches picking us 2nd in the conference. It's honestly laughable. It's great bulletin board material for the coaching staff though so I sincerely thank them for that.


T


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The entire National Media had the Shockers as a top 10 team before the season started. They were freaking 7 in the AP poll to start the year (which was completely reasonable). What the hell are you talking about?

Says WSU team is a little better than Cincy team.

Says Cincy team will win league because reasons.

Has reasons questioned with data.

Makes 8 posts yelling that those questioning reasons with data are thin-skinned and whiny.

I like your insight bearcatmark. You're better than that.

(12-15-2017 12:37 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  Says WSU team is a little better than Cincy team.

Says Cincy team will win league because reasons.

Has reasons questioned with data.

Makes 8 posts yelling that those questioning reasons with data are thin-skinned and whiny.

I like your insight bearcatmark. You're better than that.

I literally ranked them 1a and 1b and multiple times said I think they are equally likely to win the league. Again a little reading comprehension might help people. Thin skinned is claiming the entire national media disrespects the Shockers when they were preseason number 7 in the AP poll.

(12-15-2017 12:48 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:37 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  Says WSU team is a little better than Cincy team.

Says Cincy team will win league because reasons.

Has reasons questioned with data.

Makes 8 posts yelling that those questioning reasons with data are thin-skinned and whiny.

I like your insight bearcatmark. You're better than that.

I literally ranked them 1a and 1b and multiple times said I think they are equally likely to win the league. Again a little reading comprehension might help people. Thin skinned is claiming the entire national media disrespects the Shockers when they were preseason number 7 in the AP poll.

Give them a break. These Shocker fans have been out in the wheat fields too long. Their brains are fried.

Based up USF's RPI rating I would put them DEAD last.

(12-15-2017 01:04 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  Based up USF's RPI rating I would put them DEAD last.

man that's a real hot take.

(12-15-2017 12:48 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:37 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  Says WSU team is a little better than Cincy team.

Says Cincy team will win league because reasons.

Has reasons questioned with data.

Makes 8 posts yelling that those questioning reasons with data are thin-skinned and whiny.

I like your insight bearcatmark. You're better than that.

I literally ranked them 1a and 1b and multiple times said I think they are equally likely to win the league. Again a little reading comprehension might help people. Thin skinned is claiming the entire national media disrespects the Shockers when they were preseason number 7 in the AP poll.

You also said "I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins." Which is what some people responded to.

But then you did say "I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati." Which is what you're getting at.

Regarding being thin-skinned, a couple things.

1. Not particularly fair to lump an entire fanbase based on a couple online posters responding to other thin-skinned fans.

2. The national respect has been there for WSU so far this year. I'm very happy about it. But there are a lot of folks in this conference that don't understand where WSU is coming from. WSU has been a Top 15 level team for pretty much the entirety of the the last 6+ years (ironically the period they weren't that good was during the F4 year), but has been questioned relentlessly for lots of dumb reasons. It gets old. AAC fans haven't watched the years of frustration that WSU fans have accumulated from the national media because we weren't yet in this league. Instead, you're simply inheriting a group of fans that are pretty fed up with fighting the same "you didn't play people" crap. I guess I'm getting at the fact that there is some history here that is difficult for AAC fans to see, and so all you see is the puncher coming out swinging when one of the talking points (like schedule) is hit. Perhaps WSU fans need to back off a little on the responses to some of these things. Perhaps non-WSU fans need to quit spewing the same disproven talking points a little bit, too.


Now, regarding some actual analysis: I'm interested to see how being the new kid works out. Knowing your league is a big deal. In the MVC, teams knew every play the opposition was running. Players and coaches on defense would call out the play the offense was running as soon as the bench called it. That won't be happening in WSU games this season. Plays that didn't work against a crappy Drake team might result in an easy bucket against a great Ohio State team just because they didn't already know what was coming.

I'm curious to see if that is advantage AAC teams (they all only have to scout and learn one new team), or advantage WSU (WSU has traditionally been very good against teams that don't know their sets well). I do wish WSU had not lost our top 2 assistant coaches this offseason. One of them (Jans, now at NMSU) was/is a tremendous tactician. Marshall has been successful with and without Jans, but I'm pretty convinced Jans has been a decent part of the mojo during this run.

(12-15-2017 12:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:22 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:12 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Wichita State fans are so thinned skin it's insane. I have so much respect for that program. I went to Winthrop my freshman year of college when Marshall was there and have so much respect for him as a coach. I wanted UC to go after him after the Huggins fiasco. I thought he was a superstar waiting to happen. The Wichita State program was solid prior though it had fallen off a little, but he has it at an amazing place. I think Marshall is a top 5 coach in college basketball and think Wichita is a legit top ten team this year. It's just hilarious to me that if you don't think the Shockers are going to run the table in the AAC this year or think they aren't the no doubt, obvious conference champions Wichita State fans seem to think you're pissing all over them.

It's not just us, it's the entire national media. Had we not performed on the road without McDuffie in the OOC, I would have tempered my expectations a bit. But now having won at Baylor and OSU without an integral part of our team... yeah... I'm pretty confident. I mean, we're #3 for cryin' out loud.

I don't know about thin-skinned, but I'm still peeved about the coaches picking us 2nd in the conference. It's honestly laughable. It's great bulletin board material for the coaching staff though so I sincerely thank them for that.


T


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The entire National Media had the Shockers as a top 10 team before the season started. They were freaking 7 in the AP poll to start the year (which was completely reasonable). What the hell are you talking about?

The entire national media had us winning the AAC in our first year. AAC coaches (and apparently you) had/have us finishing behind Cincy - 1b or otherwise.


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For those that actually care about regular season conference championships....

I have traditionally put together a matrix of the league schedule. It's been an easy way to look at who has played the toughest league schedule to date, and who has the toughest/easiest road remaining. This will be especially interesting with the unbalanced schedule (I'm used to the 10-team true double round robin of the MVC). Anybody have any thoughts on how to weight the games to come up with some sort of SOS for each team?

I did a quick linear version using the preseason conference rankings. In this example teams were given a neutral court ranking 2-13, where the top team Cincy is 13 and the bottom team, USF, is 2. Then I've just done +/- 1 for A/H. For example, playing at Cincy is 14, playing USF at home is 1. Using this very rudimentary method, here is a conference SOS for each team:

Team SOS
TEMPLE 127.0
WSU 124.0
CINCY 120.0
UCONN 119.0
UCF 116.0
USF 116.0
UM 115.0
SMU 114.0
UH 114.0
ECU 113.0
TUL 108.0
TULSA 107.0

(12-15-2017 12:26 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:16 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


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When your road games night after night are against sub 100, often sub 150 kenpom teams, even an off night is going to be a win when you are as good as wichita state. When even the worst teams you play on the road are 100-150 range and you have to play regular top 100 road teams a slip up suddenly can become a loss. I think Wichita will lose 3-4 games in the league this year. I think they are a top 10 team with a legit chance to make the final four. Laugh all you want, but that's reasonable. (BTW RPI forecast uses sagarin to project final records and has wichita's most likely outcome as having 3 or 4 more regular season losses).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

Saying you think the Shockers are the best team in the conference right now (without our 6'8 stud who's coming back soon) yet will finish behind your Bearcats in the season race isn't logical - especially when you consider the fact that we are the best road team in the country. If we lose more than one conference game at home I'll be very surprised. That means we lose 3-4 games on the road? Ok.

I think my preseason prediction was 3-4 losses in conference for the Shockers. But if we lose that much the Bearcats lose 4-5... and I'm being generous.

Cincy has the advantage of knowing the teams better than we do, but the teams also know them. We don't know the teams very well but they CERTAINLY don't know what it feels like to play against us which will be a huge advantage. Until you've been punched in the mouth by the Shockers, you just don't get it. Game film does not translate fully.

I know... I know... Cincy is tougher - rock fights and all that.

You'll see.


T


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Maybe your reading comprehension isn't at a very high level, but I literally said I think both teams have about even odds to win the conference. I had them 1a and 1b... I think the odds are pretty high that they share the regular season title. Keep being thin skinned about anything that isn't "The Shockers are the Greatest Team in NCAA History!"

If there's any year you choose to call the Shockers "1b" behind your "1a" Bearcats, it isn't this one... not now, not when we're #3 and you're #25; not when we have our star swingman about to return; not when we're the top road team in the country and have lost only once to a ranked team by 1 pt (in a game where we led by 16). Maybe next year, but not this year...


T


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(12-15-2017 01:08 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  You also said "I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins." Which is what some people responded to.

But then you did say "I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati." Which is what you're getting at.

Regarding being thin-skinned, a couple things.

1. Not particularly fair to lump an entire fanbase based on a couple online posters responding to other thin-skinned fans.

2. The national respect has been there for WSU so far this year. I'm very happy about it. But there are a lot of folks in this conference that don't understand where WSU is coming from. WSU has been a Top 15 level team for pretty much the entirety of the the last 6+ years (ironically the period they weren't that good was during the F4 year), but has been questioned relentlessly for lots of dumb reasons. It gets old. AAC fans haven't watched the years of frustration that WSU fans have accumulated from the national media because we weren't yet in this league. Instead, you're simply inheriting a group of fans that are pretty fed up with fighting the same "you didn't play people" crap. I guess I'm getting at the fact that there is some history here that is difficult for AAC fans to see, and so all you see is the puncher coming out swinging when one of the talking points (like schedule) is hit. Perhaps WSU fans need to back off a little on the responses to some of these things. Perhaps non-WSU fans need to quit spewing the same disproven talking points a little bit, too.


Now, regarding some actual analysis: I'm interested to see how being the new kid works out. Knowing your league is a big deal. In the MVC, teams knew every play the opposition was running. Players and coaches on defense would call out the play the offense was running as soon as the bench called it. That won't be happening in WSU games this season. Plays that didn't work against a crappy Drake team might result in an easy bucket against a great Ohio State team just because they didn't already know what was coming.

I'm curious to see if that is advantage AAC teams (they all only have to scout and learn one new team), or advantage WSU (WSU has traditionally been very good against teams that don't know their sets well). I do wish WSU had not lost our top 2 assistant coaches this offseason. One of them (Jans, now at NMSU) was/is a tremendous tactician. Marshall has been successful with and without Jans, but I'm pretty convinced Jans has been a decent part of the mojo during this run.

A few things...and good post btw.

1. Your point regarding who has the advantage with them being new the conference is a good one. My personal opinion is it's easier to scout 1 team and the coaches will have scouted Wichita as much as possible. Of course until you see it on the court who knows... maybe that's a wash.

2. I think the thing fans (of every team) always underestimate is the difficulty in beating even decent teams on the road. I think Wichita's unfamiliarity with that many challenging road games is what negates there advantage of being better than UC at this point in time. I like both teams a ton. I like Wichita more right now, but think that little advantage makes them pretty even odds in my book.

3. I don't agree about the National Media disrespecting Wichita State. I think Wichita's frustration with the flawed NCAA selection process is being expressed as disrespect from the National Media. They rightfully earned a 1 seed a few years ago and the media was all over them. Last year it was widely agreed that their seed was ridiculous based on the caliber of team they were. The Shockers are constantly talked about and praised in the National Media and rightfully so. They have been since the final four run.

(12-15-2017 01:17 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  If there's any year you choose to call the Shockers "1b" behind your "1a" Bearcats, it isn't this one... not now, not when we're #3 and you're #25; not when we have our star swingman about to return; not when we're the top road team in the country and have lost only once to a ranked team by 1 pt (in a game where we led by 16). Maybe next year, but not this year...


T


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We'll see.

(12-15-2017 01:21 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  2. I think the thing fans (of every team) always underestimate is the difficulty in beating even decent teams on the road. I think Wichita's unfamiliarity with that many challenging road games is what negates there advantage of being better than UC at this point in time. I like both teams a ton. I like Wichita more right now, but think that little advantage makes them pretty even odds in my book.

I understand what you're getting at, and I am fully aware, am happy about, and appreciate that the AAC has more quality teams than the MVC. But you're also contradicting yourself a little bit. You're saying road games are hard, but discounting that WSU has played, and won, a LOT of road games. The MVC was not a great league the last few years, but the level of terribleness is often over-stated. There were a lot of teams in that "not NCAA teams, but not crappy auto-wins" range. The AAC has more of those teams, but I'm not sure how big the difference will be. I'm not stating that I think WSU is going to walk in to all the AAC arenas and pick up a win.

But I'm not really buying that WSUs approach to road games and experience with road games somehow sets them up as less capable of handling that grind than teams already in the AAC. I'm guessing we'll just have to agree to disagree on this and see how it plays out.

Preseason: “Wichita State’s KenPom ranking is fraudulent from beating up on MVC cupcakes.” “How do we know WSU is even good, they didn’t even beat a tourney team last year.”

Preconference: “Muh grind”

Yeah, we're still getting disrespected... lol.

As much as I want this conference to get stronger as a unit, there is a small, dark corner of my soul that secretly would enjoy watching us Shocker volleyball this conference into the pavement. The probabilities that we do that are a lot greater than anybody wants to admit.


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(12-15-2017 01:33 PM)AndShock Wrote:  Preseason: “Wichita State’s KenPom ranking is fraudulent from beating up on MVC cupcakes.” “How do we know WSU is even good, they didn’t even beat a tourney team last year.”

Preconference: “Muh grind”

Huh? I having been singing Wichita State's praises for half a decade plus.... Said nothing about KenPom ranking being fraudulent. Made the exact same point about road conference games and playing teams more consistently at a higher level preseason.

so I took everyones conference schedule and taking their Ken Pom ratings of their opponents- here's everyones overall average SOS in conference play...
1 UCF home 10.36 away 8.09 total 9.22
2 Temple home 7.59 away 10.19 total 8.89
3 Uconn home 8.37 away 9.25 total 8.81
4 Cincy home 8.26 away 8.79 total 8.53
5 Wichita home 8.75 away 7.89 total 8.32
6 USF home 8.39 away 7.99 total 8.19
6 Houston home 8.24 away 8.14 total 8.19
8 ECU home 7.82 away 7.95 total 7.89
9 SMU home 7.71 away 7.27 total 7.49
10 Tulane home 6.80 away 7.49 total 7.15
11 Tulsa home 6.29 away 7.43 total 6.86
12 Memphis home 7.27 away 6.26 total 6.76

so of the contenders SMU by far the easiest. Especially on the road.

(12-15-2017 01:44 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 01:33 PM)AndShock Wrote:  Preseason: “Wichita State’s KenPom ranking is fraudulent from beating up on MVC cupcakes.” “How do we know WSU is even good, they didn’t even beat a tourney team last year.”

Preconference: “Muh grind”

Huh? I having been singing Wichita State's praises for half a decade plus.... Said nothing about KenPom ranking being fraudulent. Made the exact same point about road conference games and playing teams more consistently at a higher level preseason.

Wasn’t you, just was the common sentiment on the forum. And after we win the conference it will be “just wait until next year you when you lose your 10 seniors.” Rinse, repeat. I thought our non-con performance would be enough to convince the doubters but it looks like everyone needs a dose of Marshall in their house first.

(12-15-2017 01:08 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:48 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 12:37 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  Says WSU team is a little better than Cincy team.

Says Cincy team will win league because reasons.

Has reasons questioned with data.

Makes 8 posts yelling that those questioning reasons with data are thin-skinned and whiny.

I like your insight bearcatmark. You're better than that.

I literally ranked them 1a and 1b and multiple times said I think they are equally likely to win the league. Again a little reading comprehension might help people. Thin skinned is claiming the entire national media disrespects the Shockers when they were preseason number 7 in the AP poll.

You also said "I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins." Which is what some people responded to.

But then you did say "I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati." Which is what you're getting at.

Regarding being thin-skinned, a couple things.

1. Not particularly fair to lump an entire fanbase based on a couple online posters responding to other thin-skinned fans.

2. The national respect has been there for WSU so far this year. I'm very happy about it. But there are a lot of folks in this conference that don't understand where WSU is coming from. WSU has been a Top 15 level team for pretty much the entirety of the the last 6+ years (ironically the period they weren't that good was during the F4 year), but has been questioned relentlessly for lots of dumb reasons. It gets old. AAC fans haven't watched the years of frustration that WSU fans have accumulated from the national media because we weren't yet in this league. Instead, you're simply inheriting a group of fans that are pretty fed up with fighting the same "you didn't play people" crap. I guess I'm getting at the fact that there is some history here that is difficult for AAC fans to see, and so all you see is the puncher coming out swinging when one of the talking points (like schedule) is hit. Perhaps WSU fans need to back off a little on the responses to some of these things. Perhaps non-WSU fans need to quit spewing the same disproven talking points a little bit, too.


Now, regarding some actual analysis: I'm interested to see how being the new kid works out. Knowing your league is a big deal. In the MVC, teams knew every play the opposition was running. Players and coaches on defense would call out the play the offense was running as soon as the bench called it. That won't be happening in WSU games this season. Plays that didn't work against a crappy Drake team might result in an easy bucket against a great Ohio State team just because they didn't already know what was coming.

I'm curious to see if that is advantage AAC teams (they all only have to scout and learn one new team), or advantage WSU (WSU has traditionally been very good against teams that don't know their sets well). I do wish WSU had not lost our top 2 assistant coaches this offseason. One of them (Jans, now at NMSU) was/is a tremendous tactician. Marshall has been successful with and without Jans, but I'm pretty convinced Jans has been a decent part of the mojo during this run.

Gregg Marshall is a control freak. If he hasn't found a suitable coach to delegate key activities to, he'll do it himself. Then next year he'll have an assistant "transfer out". It ain't healthy, but winning is everything in his universe. Something quite disturbing happened to 3G when he was younger that forged in him a permanent connection between winning and living. He's got a demon chasing him for sure. There is NO perspective on the issue. It's first or last. And his wife is right there with him. I'm quite thankful for whatever it was because we all get to enjoy the fruits of his labor (burden).


T


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(12-15-2017 01:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so I took everyones conference schedule and taking their Ken Pom ratings of their opponents- here's everyones overall average SOS in conference play...
1 UCF home 10.36 away 8.09 total 9.22
2 Temple home 7.59 away 10.19 total 8.89
3 Uconn home 8.37 away 9.25 total 8.81
4 Cincy home 8.26 away 8.79 total 8.53
5 Wichita home 8.75 away 7.89 total 8.32
6 USF home 8.39 away 7.99 total 8.19
6 Houston home 8.24 away 8.14 total 8.19
8 ECU home 7.82 away 7.95 total 7.89
9 SMU home 7.71 away 7.27 total 7.49
10 Tulane home 6.80 away 7.49 total 7.15
11 Tulsa home 6.29 away 7.43 total 6.86
12 Memphis home 7.27 away 6.26 total 6.76

so of the contenders SMU by far the easiest. Especially on the road.

Nice. Did you just add the AdjEMs together or what?