(12-15-2017 08:27 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  As of today, I expect UCF improvement when they get B.J. Taylor back.

1. WSU
2. Cincy
3. SMU
4. Houston
5. Temple
6. UCF
7. UCONN
8. Tulane
9. Tulsa
10. Memphis
11. ECU
12. USF

Improvement, yes. But, the simple truth is, we can't shoot. We're 7-3, but its been U-G-L-Y. Our saving grace is that we play solid defense for the most part. I definitely can't fault the effort on that end of the floor. But if we can't find some semblence of a jump shot, its not going to be pretty in conference play, BJ Taylor or not.

(12-15-2017 01:50 PM)Wudizzle Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 01:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so I took everyones conference schedule and taking their Ken Pom ratings of their opponents- here's everyones overall average SOS in conference play...
1 UCF home 10.36 away 8.09 total 9.22
2 Temple home 7.59 away 10.19 total 8.89
3 Uconn home 8.37 away 9.25 total 8.81
4 Cincy home 8.26 away 8.79 total 8.53
5 Wichita home 8.75 away 7.89 total 8.32
6 USF home 8.39 away 7.99 total 8.19
6 Houston home 8.24 away 8.14 total 8.19
8 ECU home 7.82 away 7.95 total 7.89
9 SMU home 7.71 away 7.27 total 7.49
10 Tulane home 6.80 away 7.49 total 7.15
11 Tulsa home 6.29 away 7.43 total 6.86
12 Memphis home 7.27 away 6.26 total 6.76

so of the contenders SMU by far the easiest. Especially on the road.

Nice. Did you just add the AdjEMs together or what?

yes, just took average of those.

(12-15-2017 01:47 PM)AndShock Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 01:44 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 01:33 PM)AndShock Wrote:  Preseason: “Wichita State’s KenPom ranking is fraudulent from beating up on MVC cupcakes.” “How do we know WSU is even good, they didn’t even beat a tourney team last year.”

Preconference: “Muh grind”

Huh? I having been singing Wichita State's praises for half a decade plus.... Said nothing about KenPom ranking being fraudulent. Made the exact same point about road conference games and playing teams more consistently at a higher level preseason.

Wasn’t you, just was the common sentiment on the forum. And after we win the conference it will be “just wait until next year you when you lose your 10 seniors.” Rinse, repeat. I thought our non-con performance would be enough to convince the doubters but it looks like everyone needs a dose of Marshall in their house first.

It's basic human nature to ignore possible realities that are disturbing to us. Nobody in this conference wants to see the Shockers dominate - especially the UConn's and Cincy's of the world who believe they belong on a higher plane than the Shox. The good news is, every time we've been doubted, we've proven the doubters wrong. This year, with this team... I predict the tears of our adversaries will continue to fall.


T


...

The claim about Cincy being better able to handle the slog of conference road games based on prior dealings with a higher volume of quality road opponents made me curious, so I looked up W/L for both WSU and Cincy in road games against KenPom Top 100 opponents going back to 2014.

Cincy (Overall 10-18 from 2013-14 to Present)

2018 (Overall 0-1)

12 - Xavier - L

2017 (Overall 4-3)

17 - Iowa State - W
25 - Butler - L
52 - Houston - W
11 - SMU - L
68 - UCF - L
96 - UConn - W
96 - UConn - W

2016 (Overall 2-6)

14 - Xavier - L
31 - VCU - W
16 - SMU - L
86 - Temple - L
26 - UConn - W
75 - Memphis - L
65 - Tulsa - L
61 - Houston - L

2015 (Overall 3-4)

32 - NCSU - W
73 - UConn - L
87 - Memphis - L
26 - SMU - W
66 - Temple - L
85 - Tulsa - W
73 - UConn - L

2014 (Overall 1-4)

33 - New Mexico - L
36 - Memphis - W
1 - Louisville - L
31 - SMU - L
15 - UConn - L


Wichita State (Overall 12-5 from 2013-14 to Present)

2018 (Overall 2-0)

22 - Baylor - W
56 - Oklahoma State - W

2017 (Overall 3-1)

86 - Colorado State - W
65 - Oklahoma - W
49 - Illinois State - L
97 - Loyola - W

2016 (Overall 2-2)

29 - Seton Hall - L
65 - Tulsa - L
67 - Northern Iowa - W
72 - Evansville - W

2015 (Overall 1-2)

8 - Utah - L
18 - Northern Iowa - L
62 - Illinois State - W

2014 (Overall 4-0)

82 - Tulsa - W
35 - St. Louis - W
86 - Alabama - W
95 - Northern Iowa - W



Cincinnati has undeniably faced a higher volume of Top 100 road foes over the last 5 years than Wichita State, whereas Wichita State's winning percentage has been undeniably much, much higher in those games (.705 vs. .357), so much higher that its difficult to find merit in the "volume" of those games factoring so significantly into predictions of future outcome to even or tip the scales in Cincinnati's favor. The argument that the Bearcats seem likely to prevail at a higher rate in those games than WSU this season using this prior history as the mechanism to overcome WSU being judged as the "better" team at this moment is very unconvincing.

Naturally, this is sports and we will what see what happens, but I don't think bearcatmark's argument holds water under scrutiny from any angle.

Next year may very well be the season when the AAC gets its shots on the Shockers. This year, not so much.

^^^ Yeoman's work my friend.

I was actually going to make the further statement that it would be more plausible that Cincy finishes in 3rd than finishes ahead of the Shox but I thought that was too discourteous at our current point in the discussion. Things were said, mistakes were made, and errors have now been corrected. Shockers still rule the AAC. Back to work everyone. Nothing to see here.


T


...

But you see, as you play more top 100 games your win percentage inevitably goes down due to “teh grind.” It turns out that the NBA season is the perfect length. If the NBA season were any longer, every game would end in a loss for every team due to “teh grind.” Players for pansy ass Wichita State are only able to handle around 20 games before “teh grind” gets to them.

I think it's safe to say that Bearcatmark really hates us now...

Don't take it personal brother, we're not here to make friends.

“We ain't staying long. We're just here to win and leave.” - Markis McDuffie 1/9/2016


T


...

Maybe it will help bearcatmark understand why we're "thin-skinned" when it comes to "teh grind." "Teh grind" has already been a term used to demean non-P5 schools and was a constant excuse for why the true Flagship consistently lost to schools like Bucknell, Bradley, VCU, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State in the NCAA tournament. Those schools got to sit around and play patty cake all year while Flagship had to endure "teh grind" and battle legendary Big XII schools from January-March. Wichita State fans have never considered "teh grind" to be a real thing and we're not going to flip flop and use BS P5 excuses just because we're in a Major 7 conference. Our players say games are the fun part. If there's a grind, it's in practice and we've had practice in the MVC and we'll have practice in the AAC. If we lose games in the AAC it will be because we got outplayed (or the refs screwed us.) Shocker fans are not going to be whining about some non-existent grind.

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

This year the AAC has played the Valley 3 times and has gone 0-3.

Tulsa lost twice to Illinois State (who has the worst record in the MVC)
SMU lost to Northern Iowa

Wichita's AVERAGE margin of victory in the Valley last year was somewhere around 19(!) .

Do you wish to reassess your statement?

My prediction revised is wsu secures conference title as whiniest snowflake fan base in 1st season of AAC play.

Record setting performance.

(12-15-2017 03:44 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  My prediction revised is wsu secures conference title as whiniest snowflake fan base in 1st season of AAC play.

Record setting performance.

You Tulsa peeps have sure quieted down since October.

Talk about snowflakes.

(12-15-2017 03:44 PM)TU4ever Wrote:  My prediction revised is wsu secures conference title as whiniest snowflake fan base in 1st season of AAC play.

Record setting performance.

*sent from myHospiceApp at TU season ticket holder fruitcake bakeoff

It has just been announced that WSU's entire fanbase is out for the season....injured.
Collective torn rotator cuff from patting themselves on the back so often.

(12-15-2017 03:50 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  It has just been announced that WSU's entire fanbase is out for the season....injured.
Collective torn rotator cuff from patting themselves on the back so often.

Not out for the season. We'll just have to use the other arm for a while.

(12-15-2017 04:03 PM)Wheatshock Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 03:50 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  It has just been announced that WSU's entire fanbase is out for the season....injured.
Collective torn rotator cuff from patting themselves on the back so often.

Not out for the season. We'll just have to use the other arm for a while.

haven't you been using that one for something else....simultaneously?

No we let ECU do that for us, silly.

(12-15-2017 04:13 PM)Play Angry Wrote:  No we let ECU do that for us, silly.

LOL...well done!

I'm going to hold off on revising until I'm sure McMurray is playing this season....but I will say this:

Although clearly the class of this season WSU will not get through with less than 2 maybe 3 losses. They are REALLY good and hopefully a one seed come tourney time.
Road wins are hard in Cincy and Dallas, Philly ain't easy and the total silence in Houston can be deafening. Can they go undefeated at home? Yup, I think so.

I watched a little of Memphis- Albany. First time I've seen the a- la- carte Tigers. I think they improve as the season progresses and they learn each other's names. They could pull a surprise at the conference tourney.

(12-15-2017 04:50 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  I'm going to hold off on revising until I'm sure McMurray is playing this season....but I will say this:

Although clearly the class of this season WSU will not get through with less than 2 maybe 3 losses. They are REALLY good and hopefully a one seed come tourney time.
Road wins are hard in Cincy and Dallas, Philly ain't easy and the total silence in Houston can be deafening. Can they go undefeated at home? Yup, I think so.

I watched a little of Memphis- Albany. First time I've seen the a- la- carte Tigers. I think they improve as the season progresses and they learn each other's names. They could pull a surprise at the conference tourney.

Got to agree with my fellow Pony.

I would guess WSU goes 15-3 in conference. 14-4 if they don't bring their A game at UCF or something like that.

SMU does have the huge advantage of only playing Temple at Moody this year. We don't have to go to Philly. I remember the only year we didn't win the conference in the last 3 years we only played Temple in Philly and lost and lost the conference race by 1 game. Also, bummed we don't get UConn at Moody this year, I always enjoy that game. Don't mind at Tulsa, since its a close trip and 3 guys on our team are from Tulsa.

(12-15-2017 04:58 PM)PonyHoopsFan85 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 04:50 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  I'm going to hold off on revising until I'm sure McMurray is playing this season....but I will say this:

Although clearly the class of this season WSU will not get through with less than 2 maybe 3 losses. They are REALLY good and hopefully a one seed come tourney time.
Road wins are hard in Cincy and Dallas, Philly ain't easy and the total silence in Houston can be deafening. Can they go undefeated at home? Yup, I think so.

I watched a little of Memphis- Albany. First time I've seen the a- la- carte Tigers. I think they improve as the season progresses and they learn each other's names. They could pull a surprise at the conference tourney.

Got to agree with my fellow Pony.

I would guess WSU goes 15-3 in conference. 14-4 if they don't bring their A game at UCF or something like that.

SMU does have the huge advantage of only playing Temple at Moody this year. We don't have to go to Philly. I remember the only year we didn't win the conference in the last 3 years we only played Temple in Philly and lost and lost the conference race by 1 game. Also, bummed we don't get UConn at Moody this year, I always enjoy that game. Don't mind at Tulsa, since its a close trip and 3 guys on our team are from Tulsa.

Ugh!!! The Temple fiasco in the snow during our probation season. The only Liacouras SMU/ Temple game in the LB/Jank era that I missed going to because the game was postponed a day.