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NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
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Sellular1 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?

To get the slot, one HAS to be the conf champ. Doesn't matter the ranking
10-26-2017 01:45 PM
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Stay Cool Offline
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Post: #22
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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10-26-2017 04:05 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #23
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
The UCF-USF loser (ie, non-champ) has a shot at an NY6 bowl. The Big 12, PAC, and ACC+Notre Dame will beat up on each other down the stretch and a few teams that are in the current top 10-20 rankings will fall - some more than once. It just depends on how much they beat up each other. A couple more Syracuse-Clemson, ISU-Oklahoma, and ASU-Washington type upsets would help.

So, it's *possible* for a top-ten UCF-USF matchup. In that instance, the loser in a close game could stay ranked just ahead of the 3-loss P5 contenders. The loser would sit at home and watch yet other NY6 contenders lose in their conference championship games - conceivably paving the way to for both UCF and USF to make an NY6 bowl game - one as AAC champ and the other as a top-12 at large selection.

But, in reality, who am I kidding? The CFP selection committee will surely rank someone else into the NY6 ahead of the UCF/USF loser. Too many justifications available.
10-26-2017 04:28 PM
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Post: #24
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-25-2017 10:12 PM)cotton1991 Wrote:  
(10-25-2017 09:12 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  So I guess the question is, what would it take for another team to get it. Multiple losses by AAC? Memphis winning AAC? Boise winning MWC?

If Memphis runs the table and wins the CCG they're a shoe-in imho.

I'd agree since it would mean both USF and UCF would have a loss... but moreso that the slot goes to (by rule) a G5 conference champion. Basically, whomever our Champ is... they are almost a lock for the access bowl.
10-26-2017 04:47 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-25-2017 09:08 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Are there any legitimate contenders for the NY6 bowl for the so called "G5" outside of the AAC, or do you think it is locked up for USF, UCF, or Memphis? If there are other contenders, who are they? Curious as to the general thought process. Marshall? Boise St?

At this point, probably a 95% chance that the NY6 bowl goes to an AAC team. Would take a series of unlikely events, namely UCF and USF both losing two games from here on out, plus SDSU winning out and Stanford having a huge finish, for it to happen.

It's really hard to envision any kind of likely scenario that doesn't result in an AAC team in the NY6 game.

Basically, about the same chance that the Patriots had of winning the Super Bowl late in the third quarter, or UCLA had of beating TAMU at the same time of their game. It can happen, but ....
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2017 06:32 PM by quo vadis.)
10-26-2017 06:31 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #26
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
If Memphis didn't play UCF already and was undefeated this season, I wonder if they would have gone as an "At Large" team if they lost to UCF/USF in the AACCG. Likewise, would UCF/USF have gone as an "At Large" in a similar reverse circumstance?
10-26-2017 08:44 PM
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Post: #27
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 06:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-25-2017 09:08 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Are there any legitimate contenders for the NY6 bowl for the so called "G5" outside of the AAC, or do you think it is locked up for USF, UCF, or Memphis? If there are other contenders, who are they? Curious as to the general thought process. Marshall? Boise St?

At this point, probably a 95% chance that the NY6 bowl goes to an AAC team. Would take a series of unlikely events, namely UCF and USF both losing two games from here on out, plus SDSU winning out and Stanford having a huge finish, for it to happen.

It's really hard to envision any kind of likely scenario that doesn't result in an AAC team in the NY6 game.

Basically, about the same chance that the Patriots had of winning the Super Bowl late in the third quarter, or UCLA had of beating TAMU at the same time of their game. It can happen, but ....

SDSU winning out is almost certainly a moot point. SDSU needs Fresno to lose 3 of their final 4 MWC games to just win the division. Considering Fresno has left in MWC play UNLV, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Boise- that's not happening.
10-26-2017 10:06 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #28
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 08:44 PM)otown Wrote:  If Memphis didn't play UCF already and was undefeated this season, I wonder if they would have gone as an "At Large" team if they lost to UCF/USF in the AACCG. Likewise, would UCF/USF have gone as an "At Large" in a similar reverse circumstance?

In a word, no. The odds of two G5 teams ever making the NY6 are extremely small in any event, and from the same conference basically zero. There isn't any way a non-champ G5 team is getting over P5 powerhouse. Basically, when a G5 team loses, they tumble far down the rankings, no way a G5 team loses late and stays in the top 12, which is about where you need to be.

This year, there was a slight chance it could have happened, very slight, but it would have had to be a multi-conference thing, like if say unbeaten AAC champ UCF had gotten the NY6 bid, and then you also had unbeaten MWC champ SDSU, with a win over a powerful Stanford team, also eligible. Maybe, just maybe, SDSU could have gotten in too. But that went out the window when SDSU lost.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:11 AM by quo vadis.)
10-27-2017 06:10 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #29
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-26-2017 04:05 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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Why anyone cannot get this I simply don't understand.
10-27-2017 06:16 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #30
RE: NY6 bowl...AAC's to lose?
(10-27-2017 06:16 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 04:05 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  
(10-26-2017 01:41 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I haven't run the numbers, but is there a possible scenario when the NY6 bowl slot goes to an AAC team that does not win the AAC Championship?
No, must be a conference champ

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Why anyone cannot get this I simply don't understand.

In fairness, the only thing wrong with the original question was the use of the term "the" instead of "a", because there's no rule that precludes a non-champ G5 team from getting into the NY6 as an at-large team. They just can't get "the" designated NY6 spot that's reserved by rule for the top G5 champ.

And maybe the former is how he meant the question?
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2017 06:30 AM by quo vadis.)
10-27-2017 06:29 AM
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