quo vadis
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RE: If USF or UCF win out, what is the highest either can get in polls
(10-16-2017 03:29 PM)SublimeKnight Wrote: (10-16-2017 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-16-2017 11:40 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote: You're not getting it. The reason the P5 have such hard strength of schedule is because everyone beats cupcakes OOC... everyone. Not just alabama, not just clemson. Your wake's and vandy's need those crap wins, that's the most important part.
After those 3-4 OOC games, you enter a closed system. The mathematical value of those collective OOC victories are then amplified during conference play. Like you said, a computer doesn't know the SEC from the Sunbelt, so how is SEC SOS so much higher than a sunbelt team? Because all the SEC schools beat sunbelt teams at home, with SEC officials on the field and in the booth.
It's more complicated than that. First, lots of P5 schools have soft schedules. Right now, West Virginia's SOS is 82, Kansas State's is 70, Kentucky's is 89, etc.
Second, the system's aren't really closed, because with divisional play, even teams within a conference can play significantly different conference schedules - we see that in the AAC.
Third, yes, no question, most P5 vs G5 games are played at the P5 home, and yes, that skews the results in favor of P5. But by how much? I mean, this year, Auburn is playing Louisiana Monroe and Georgia Southern at home. Do you really think the results would differ if they were on the road? It's not much of an impact in the scheme of things.
Plus, look at how other Florida schools built themselves up - by scheduling up. In the early 1980s, before they won a title, Miami got on to the map by playing Notre Dame every year during the 1970s. FSU? Bobby Bowden was famous for "playing anyone, anywhere" to raise his program's visibility. When I first started watching college football in the 1970s, nobody had ever heard of Miami or FSU, but they grew their programs by traveling to traditional big-name powers.
Bottom line is that AAC schools won't get invited to the playoffs unless we do what Houston did last year.
"Building up" has no implication on a computer poll. A computer poll shouldn't know who played in leather helmets. "Scheduling up" isn't necessary. The P5's who's computer ratings we covet don't "schedule up". Let's concentrate on the line I bolded then.
I'm talking about closed to the conference. If you look at the average sagarin ratings for conferences you have the "P5"..."AAC"..."G4"
Why is the B1G, on average, rated higher than the MAC (significantly)? The B1G mostly play each other, but so does every team in the MAC. So the only external mathematical weight that differentiates the two conferences is what happens OOC. So conference play is a closed system, that draws its fuel from the 3-4 OOC games. So you better win those games. The B1G ensures everyone wins those games by slanting the playing field in their favor.
The AAC shouldn't look to "schedule up". They need to demand fair games with the "P5", with the same stipulation P5s negotiate with each other. Home and homes, where the away team supplies refs. And G4 games that we're highly likely to win. That's not just the top of the conference, that has to be the whole conference.
If we can't accomplish that, we are where we are today, in the middle.
About the two bolded parts ...
(1) By 'scheduling up', i mean playing good teams. You seem to think the notion of a good team is purely a scheduling anomaly, e.g., that Alabama really isn't better than Georgia Southern, it's just that Alabama gets to schedule UAB at home while Georgia Southern plays UAB on the road. That doesn't have any connection with reality.
(2) We can't demand that, because we, the AAC, aren't in a position to. Everyone wants to play home games because of revenue. Alabama isn't going to agree to a home and home with Tulsa just because Tulsa or you or I think that makes computer comparisons more 'fair and valid'.
So you do what you can, which is play them there.
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