If USF or UCF goes undefeated (obviously not a lock), gets left out of the playoffs (a given), and beats whoever they matched up with in the NY6 game (possibly by a blowout)... Would either team have the stones to put up a National Champion banner?

They need a lot of teams with 2 or 3 losses to get higher than the 8-10 range. S&P+ has Central Florida 9 and USF 18. Strong teams. Probably the best 2 we've had in the league since it reformed.

I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

There is nothing we can do about the playoffs. Its an invitational, run by 5 conferences. It doesn't matter who we schedule, who we beat, our "SOS" will be deemed crap.

Really who do the "P5"s beat OOC? Usually G4s they schedule in 1 and dones, at home, where they also supply the refs. They can do that at 1-2 million a pop. Their SOS is built on them all buying wins against equal or lesser teams.

(10-16-2017 08:20 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  If USF or UCF goes undefeated (obviously not a lock), gets left out of the playoffs (a given), and beats whoever they matched up with in the NY6 game (possibly by a blowout)... Would either team have the stones to put up a National Champion banner?

Texas a&m much?

(10-15-2017 07:11 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Currently, both are in top 20. It has been said neither has a chance of CFP playoffs. So, assuming either goes undefeated through the conference champ game, what is the realistic ceiling. #10, #8, #6??

I'd say the ceiling is around #8.

(10-16-2017 09:51 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  It doesn't matter who we schedule, who we beat, our "SOS" will be deemed crap.

Really who do the "P5"s beat OOC? Usually G4s they schedule in 1 and dones, at home, where they also supply the refs. They can do that at 1-2 million a pop. Their SOS is built on them all buying wins against equal or lesser teams.

That's why it's good to look at computers, because they don't "deem" anything, all a computer sees are a bunch of numbers.

And right now, the numbers for us don't look good. E.g., according to Sagarin, UCF's current SOS is #103, USF's is #130.

And every time Maryland or Illinois loses, it gets worse for us.

Bottom line is by any standard, UCF has played a very soft schedule so far, USF even softer. That's not P5 bias talking either.

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

Or we can do what the SEC did in the late 2000s: everyone schedules nothing but cupcakes OOC (USF is way ahead of everyone on that already), beat up on them big, and get ranked by conference play. Then when we beat each other, the winner gets a big boost, and the loser doesn't fall very far.

Then the next season once those pre-season numbers get smaller, rinse and repeat, and you have a power conference. After 5 years of it, the conference and each school's prestige has risen so high it won't matter what we do.

[for the record I hate all of this]

(10-16-2017 10:20 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

Or we can do what the SEC did in the late 2000s: everyone schedules nothing but cupcakes OOC (USF is way ahead of everyone on that already), beat up on them big, and get ranked by conference play. Then when we beat each other, the winner gets a big boost, and the loser doesn't fall very far.

Then the next season once those pre-season numbers get smaller, rinse and repeat, and you have a power conference. After 5 years of it, the conference and each school's prestige has risen so high it won't matter what we do.

That's an interesting idea, so i checked the Sagarin archives. Here's what they say about the final SOS for SEC teams that finished in the top 10 in the "late 2000s":

2007:

LSU (#1) ... 11
Georgia ... 23
Florida .... 3

2008:

Florida (#1) ... 4
Alabama ... 20
Georgia .... 11

2009:

Alabama (#1) ... 2
Florida ......... 15
LSU .......... 5

2010:

Auburn (#1) .... 13
Alabama ........... 14
LSU .............. 15
Arkansas ....... 11

Verdict: Those are very high SOS's. Very tough schedules. Now, I didn't look at the OOC teams played, but even if they were cupcakes, the conference SOS obviously made up for it.

So, if the SEC did pursue a "OOC cupcake" strategy, it only worked because the conference was in fact so strong that overall SOS was still very strong.

The AAC can't pull that off. We do need to schedule tough OOC to get our SOS up.

(10-16-2017 10:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:20 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

Or we can do what the SEC did in the late 2000s: everyone schedules nothing but cupcakes OOC (USF is way ahead of everyone on that already), beat up on them big, and get ranked by conference play. Then when we beat each other, the winner gets a big boost, and the loser doesn't fall very far.

Then the next season once those pre-season numbers get smaller, rinse and repeat, and you have a power conference. After 5 years of it, the conference and each school's prestige has risen so high it won't matter what we do.

That's an interesting idea, so i checked the Sagarin archives. Here's what they say about the final SOS for SEC teams that finished in the top 10 in the "late 2000s":

2007:

LSU (#1) ... 11
Georgia ... 23
Florida .... 3

2008:

Florida (#1) ... 4
Alabama ... 20
Georgia .... 11

2009:

Alabama (#1) ... 2
Florida ......... 15
LSU .......... 5

2010:

Auburn (#1) .... 13
Alabama ........... 14
LSU .............. 15
Arkansas ....... 11

Verdict: Those are very high SOS's. Very tough schedules. Now, I didn't look at the OOC teams played, but even if they were cupcakes, the conference SOS obviously made up for it.

So, if the SEC did pursue a "OOC cupcake" strategy, it only worked because the conference was in fact so strong that overall SOS was still very strong.

The AAC can't pull that off. We do need to schedule tough OOC to get our SOS up.

However long ago it was (I pulled late 2000's out of my ass).
And their SOS will always be high because of conference play where they are all ranked, which was part of the point.

I disagree...I think if you have on your schedule a couple of big Power games.... especially if that teams goes on to win their conference we would have a strong shot for the play off. It is feasible to have 4 or 5 ranked wins with the proper OOC..... that will propel us into the discussion. But if you have cupcakes...we have 0 shot.

(10-16-2017 10:33 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:20 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

Or we can do what the SEC did in the late 2000s: everyone schedules nothing but cupcakes OOC (USF is way ahead of everyone on that already), beat up on them big, and get ranked by conference play. Then when we beat each other, the winner gets a big boost, and the loser doesn't fall very far.

Then the next season once those pre-season numbers get smaller, rinse and repeat, and you have a power conference. After 5 years of it, the conference and each school's prestige has risen so high it won't matter what we do.

That's an interesting idea, so i checked the Sagarin archives. Here's what they say about the final SOS for SEC teams that finished in the top 10 in the "late 2000s":

2007:

LSU (#1) ... 11
Georgia ... 23
Florida .... 3

2008:

Florida (#1) ... 4
Alabama ... 20
Georgia .... 11

2009:

Alabama (#1) ... 2
Florida ......... 15
LSU .......... 5

2010:

Auburn (#1) .... 13
Alabama ........... 14
LSU .............. 15
Arkansas ....... 11

Verdict: Those are very high SOS's. Very tough schedules. Now, I didn't look at the OOC teams played, but even if they were cupcakes, the conference SOS obviously made up for it.

So, if the SEC did pursue a "OOC cupcake" strategy, it only worked because the conference was in fact so strong that overall SOS was still very strong.

The AAC can't pull that off. We do need to schedule tough OOC to get our SOS up.

However long ago it was (I pulled late 2000's out of my ass).
And their SOS will always be high because of conference play where they are all ranked, which was part of the point.

This isn't correct. Remember, SOS is determined by computers, not human voters.

E.g., the AP pollsters could have ECU ranked #15 in their polls right now (for some ungodly reason, who knows why, maybe ECU paid every voter a bribe), but to the computers that calculate SOS, ECU would be a very soft team and hurt anyone who played them's SOS. The machines don't care about poll rankings at all.

So when Sagarin says that in 2008, Florida played a very tough schedule, it wasn't because the teams they played had high poll rankings.

(10-16-2017 10:36 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I disagree...I think if you have on your schedule a couple of big Power games.... especially if that teams goes on to win their conference we would have a strong shot for the play off. It is feasible to have 4 or 5 ranked wins with the proper OOC..... that will propel us into the discussion. But if you have cupcakes...we have 0 shot.

I agree. E.g., if Houston had gone unbeaten last year, they probably would have made the playoffs, because they had the scalps of two highly-rated P5 teams on their resume, including a P5 conference champ.

That's the only way a G5 school can ever make the playoffs, otherwise, even if we go unbeaten, our poll ceiling will be well outside the CFP top four.

(10-16-2017 10:20 AM)FonzKnight Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:33 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I know ECU is a flaming dumpster right now...but I have read alot of folks wanting to lessen out schedule. This is why the American can't do that. We need to be scheduling as many so called power games as we can so that when we do have a legit team....and that UCF team is legit they have a shot at a playoff. I mean even if we go to the swamp or to Alabama and lose.... our conference isn't going to lose that auto bid because we are so far ahead in my opinion of the other conferences. We should always be playing for a national championship even if it is a extremely high mountain to cross.

Or we can do what the SEC did in the late 2000s: everyone schedules nothing but cupcakes OOC (USF is way ahead of everyone on that already), beat up on them big, and get ranked by conference play. Then when we beat each other, the winner gets a big boost, and the loser doesn't fall very far.

Then the next season once those pre-season numbers get smaller, rinse and repeat, and you have a power conference. After 5 years of it, the conference and each school's prestige has risen so high it won't matter what we do.

[for the record I hate all of this]

I'm definitely not an SEC fan or apologist, but let's remember that...

Fl*rida has an annual game vs. FSU
Georgia has an annual game vs. Georgia Tech
South Carolina has an annual game vs. Clemson
Kentucky has an annual game vs. Louisville

I can recall both Tennessee and LSU playing Oregon, Alabama playing Oklahoma, Penn State, UCLA and FSU, Arkansas playing Texas and USC, Auburn playing West Virginia and USC... point is, the SEC hasn't exactly played nobody (PAAAWWWWLLLL!). I do hate the round of cupcakes they ALL play the weekend before Thanksgiving, but I understand why they do it.

USFFan

(10-16-2017 10:36 AM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  I disagree...I think if you have on your schedule a couple of big Power games.... especially if that teams goes on to win their conference we would have a strong shot for the play off. It is feasible to have 4 or 5 ranked wins with the proper OOC..... that will propel us into the discussion. But if you have cupcakes...we have 0 shot.

Yup. I heard somebody say on a podcast that Washington had zero room for error because of their soft OOC schedule. Had Houston gone undefeated last year with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville, I believe they would have been in the legitimate argument for getting into the playoff. Had USF run the table this year and beaten Michigan State and Wisconsin (both of whom were once on this year's schedule), they would also have been in the conversation. But not with San Jose State, Stonybrook, Illinois and UMass (RIP). It would take the perfect storm, but I don't think it's impossible for an AAC champ to make the playoff.

USFFan

(10-16-2017 08:20 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  If USF or UCF goes undefeated (obviously not a lock), gets left out of the playoffs (a given), and beats whoever they matched up with in the NY6 game (possibly by a blowout)... Would either team have the stones to put up a National Champion banner?

If UCF continues to beat teams by 4 TDs, yes. I'm sure that USF has already purchased billboard space.

I think our conference has a better chance than the other G5's because we have so many that can potentially be ranked. You get a win over a top ten Oklahoma and one over a Texas Tech...and then run the table with all FBS wins we will be in the discussion and I don't think it is as far fetched as the rest of you guys do. It will take multiple 1 loss teams in the other conferences but I think its doable. Personally I don't think any of our schools in the conference can afford to schedule any other way...because any of the schools in this conference are capable of having that special year, but if we aren't even in the position to take advantage of it because of poor scheduling it will be a shame. I hate that UCF don't get to play Georgia Tech this year....

(10-16-2017 10:16 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 09:51 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  It doesn't matter who we schedule, who we beat, our "SOS" will be deemed crap.

Really who do the "P5"s beat OOC? Usually G4s they schedule in 1 and dones, at home, where they also supply the refs. They can do that at 1-2 million a pop. Their SOS is built on them all buying wins against equal or lesser teams.

That's why it's good to look at computers, because they don't "deem" anything, all a computer sees are a bunch of numbers.

And right now, the numbers for us don't look good. E.g., according to Sagarin, UCF's current SOS is #103, USF's is #130.

And every time Maryland or Illinois loses, it gets worse for us.

Bottom line is by any standard, UCF has played a very soft schedule so far, USF even softer. That's not P5 bias talking either.

You're not getting it. The reason the P5 have such hard strength of schedule is because everyone beats cupcakes OOC... everyone. Not just alabama, not just clemson. Your wake's and vandy's need those crap wins, that's the most important part.

After those 3-4 OOC games, you enter a closed system. The mathematical value of those collective OOC victories are then amplified during conference play. Like you said, a computer doesn't know the SEC from the Sunbelt, so how is SEC SOS so much higher than a sunbelt team? Because all the SEC schools beat sunbelt teams at home, with SEC officials on the field and in the booth.

You can't bust this system by playing into their hands. We have to emulate it as best we can, given that we don't have the finances to dictate terms like they can.

(10-16-2017 06:11 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Talking regular season here?
Regular season, I'd say #10.
After AAC CG #8.
After Bowl #5.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app

There's no cfb playoff poll after the bowl games. At that point it'd just be ap

I think 8-10 is a realistic ceiling. Absolute ceiling is 5. No chance in hell a team gets placed higher than 5 obviously regardless of what happens. A 3 loss Alabama would be ahead of one of us.

(10-16-2017 11:26 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 AM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  If USF or UCF goes undefeated (obviously not a lock), gets left out of the playoffs (a given), and beats whoever they matched up with in the NY6 game (possibly by a blowout)... Would either team have the stones to put up a National Champion banner?

If UCF continues to beat teams by 4 TDs, yes. I'm sure that USF has already purchased billboard space.

If it's us, I would hope DW would plaster it all over the stadium. Not too proud