(05-30-2017 12:02 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: (05-30-2017 08:23 AM)stever20 Wrote: (05-29-2017 11:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: (05-23-2017 02:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: Challenging stretch for the Dodgers: v Cards, v Cubs, @ Cards, @ Brewers, v Nats. Justin Turner will be on the DL for all of 'em. If they can play anywhere near .500 I'll be satisfied. Rockies have a much easier couple of weeks so my expectation is that the Dodgers will fall a couple more games behind. The Rockies opponent I'm rooting for hardest right now? Math. Regression to the mean is coming, right? RIGHT?!
So far, so good. Dodgers have won 6 of the first 7 and miraculously, the Rockies have lost 3 of 5 and the Diamondbacks have lost 3 in a row. In the loss column Dodgers have gone from 2 back to tied. Today was huge - the most ERs Leake has given up this year.
The one thing I'd say about it though is that even in a win on Sunday- Kershaw has to be concerning. 3 homers given up. Looking at his splits- in April he had a 2.55 FIP. This month it's 3.54. Only thing saving him really is his LOB%. April it was 80.4%. May it's been 89.9%
The thing that's funny with Kershaw right now is he would probably run away with the Cy Young award, despite the advanced metrics clearly not favoring him.
I think most of us who pay attention understand that superhuman Kershaw is probably gone. The guy is playing with a herniated disk. If you look at the game log there is a picture emerging, I think. He's still going to dominate games, but probably not as many, and the "off" games are going to be more frequent. Like I said earlier in the thread, he's merely elite now.
I dunno if Kershaw would "run away" with a vote today, but he'd probably win - the voting predictors have him with a solid lead. I think the advanced metrics have a cluster of guys in the running, including Kershaw, with no real standout. It's going to be fun to watch the rest of the season. You've got Scherzer and Strasburg right in the mix, and if he doesn't skip too many starts, Alex Wood is going to get some notice. So we'll see if teammates steal votes from each other if they all keep this up.
Kershaw has had 6 starts vs Colorado, Cubs, and Arizona. In those 6 starts he's had a 3.02 ERA and slash line against of .244/.265/.423 with a .689 OPS.
He's had 5 starts vs San Diego and San Francisco. In those 5 starts he's had a 1.57 ERA and slash line against of .192/.223/.304 for a .527 OPS.
San Diego and San Francisco are by far the 2 worst offenses in the NL- 3.43 and 3.38 runs scored per game(lowest in the NL by .55 runs).
Kershaw's next few starts-
Milwaukee 5.08 runs per game
Washington 5.54 runs per game
Cleveland 4.43 runs per game(will have DH)
NY Mets 5.10 runs per game(bet you're surprised by that)
Colorado 5.13 runs per game
LA Angels 4.00 runs per game(will have DH- but no Trout)
Arizona 4.92 runs per game
KC Royals 3.44 runs per game(no DH, but scheduled Sunday before Break- so might not get to make that start)
So in the 8 games before the break, he sees the top 4 NL offenses and 2 AL offenses with the dh in play.