(05-27-2017 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Interesting article on ESPN about Greinke...
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/...-dominance

Interesting theory about how changing catchers has made such a difference.

Pitch framing is huge - big reason the Dodgers went after Grandal.

I was sweating last night - Arrieta has had his way with the Dodgers. But he didn't have a chance, especially the way Wood is pitching. Arrieta definitely has issues. He's giving up a ton of runs. I don't think the Cubs are going to make much of a run if he can't figure things out.

so Keuchel goes 6 innings with only 1 run. 8 k's to 2 bb.

So since we started tracking- both got wins-
Keuchel now 8-0 with a 1.81 ERA
Sale now 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA

Both have 10 starts- and should make 8 more before the break. Sale definitely not in the lead right now by any stretch of the imagination.

nice rivalry with Strickland and Harper. Going to be really interesting to see the suspensions from the brawl today.

Mike Trout to the DL- out multiple weeks. talk about a devastating injury. Might require surgery.

(05-29-2017 06:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Mike Trout to the DL- out multiple weeks. talk about a devastating injury. Might require surgery.

Yup. UCL surgery on Wednesday. 6-8 weeks.

(05-25-2017 09:47 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Trout's fWAR is up to 3.4, in 49 team games (he's played 43). He's got 15 HR, 9 SB (caught once) and a 222 wRC+. Such an amazing player, and on such a bad team. And yet they're 25-24, which says all you need to know about his MVP case. He's already been robbed twice

swoosh jinxed him

(05-23-2017 02:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Challenging stretch for the Dodgers: v Cards, v Cubs, @ Cards, @ Brewers, v Nats. Justin Turner will be on the DL for all of 'em. If they can play anywhere near .500 I'll be satisfied. Rockies have a much easier couple of weeks so my expectation is that the Dodgers will fall a couple more games behind. The Rockies opponent I'm rooting for hardest right now? Math. Regression to the mean is coming, right? RIGHT?!

So far, so good. Dodgers have won 6 of the first 7 and miraculously, the Rockies have lost 3 of 5 and the Diamondbacks have lost 3 in a row. In the loss column Dodgers have gone from 2 back to tied. Today was huge - the most ERs Leake has given up this year.

(05-29-2017 11:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-23-2017 02:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Challenging stretch for the Dodgers: v Cards, v Cubs, @ Cards, @ Brewers, v Nats. Justin Turner will be on the DL for all of 'em. If they can play anywhere near .500 I'll be satisfied. Rockies have a much easier couple of weeks so my expectation is that the Dodgers will fall a couple more games behind. The Rockies opponent I'm rooting for hardest right now? Math. Regression to the mean is coming, right? RIGHT?!

So far, so good. Dodgers have won 6 of the first 7 and miraculously, the Rockies have lost 3 of 5 and the Diamondbacks have lost 3 in a row. In the loss column Dodgers have gone from 2 back to tied. Today was huge - the most ERs Leake has given up this year.

The one thing I'd say about it though is that even in a win on Sunday- Kershaw has to be concerning. 3 homers given up. Looking at his splits- in April he had a 2.55 FIP. This month it's 3.54. Only thing saving him really is his LOB%. April it was 80.4%. May it's been 89.9%

The thing that's funny with Kershaw right now is he would probably run away with the Cy Young award, despite the advanced metrics clearly not favoring him.

(05-30-2017 08:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 11:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-23-2017 02:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Challenging stretch for the Dodgers: v Cards, v Cubs, @ Cards, @ Brewers, v Nats. Justin Turner will be on the DL for all of 'em. If they can play anywhere near .500 I'll be satisfied. Rockies have a much easier couple of weeks so my expectation is that the Dodgers will fall a couple more games behind. The Rockies opponent I'm rooting for hardest right now? Math. Regression to the mean is coming, right? RIGHT?!

So far, so good. Dodgers have won 6 of the first 7 and miraculously, the Rockies have lost 3 of 5 and the Diamondbacks have lost 3 in a row. In the loss column Dodgers have gone from 2 back to tied. Today was huge - the most ERs Leake has given up this year.

The one thing I'd say about it though is that even in a win on Sunday- Kershaw has to be concerning. 3 homers given up. Looking at his splits- in April he had a 2.55 FIP. This month it's 3.54. Only thing saving him really is his LOB%. April it was 80.4%. May it's been 89.9%

The thing that's funny with Kershaw right now is he would probably run away with the Cy Young award, despite the advanced metrics clearly not favoring him.

I think most of us who pay attention understand that superhuman Kershaw is probably gone. The guy is playing with a herniated disk. If you look at the game log there is a picture emerging, I think. He's still going to dominate games, but probably not as many, and the "off" games are going to be more frequent. Like I said earlier in the thread, he's merely elite now.

I dunno if Kershaw would "run away" with a vote today, but he'd probably win - the voting predictors have him with a solid lead. I think the advanced metrics have a cluster of guys in the running, including Kershaw, with no real standout. It's going to be fun to watch the rest of the season. You've got Scherzer and Strasburg right in the mix, and if he doesn't skip too many starts, Alex Wood is going to get some notice. So we'll see if teammates steal votes from each other if they all keep this up.

(05-29-2017 06:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nice rivalry with Strickland and Harper. Going to be really interesting to see the suspensions from the brawl today.

WTF is the matter with Strickland? He's beaning Harper because of dingers hit 3 seasons ago?

(05-30-2017 12:04 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 06:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nice rivalry with Strickland and Harper. Going to be really interesting to see the suspensions from the brawl today.

WTF is the matter with Strickland? He's beaning Harper because of dingers hit 3 seasons ago?

I think the funniest image from the brawl was Buster Posey not moving an inch to protect Strickland. Like you got yourself in this mess, good luck.

(05-30-2017 12:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 12:04 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 06:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nice rivalry with Strickland and Harper. Going to be really interesting to see the suspensions from the brawl today.

WTF is the matter with Strickland? He's beaning Harper because of dingers hit 3 seasons ago?

I think the funniest image from the brawl was Buster Posey not moving an inch to protect Strickland. Like you got yourself in this mess, good luck.

Yeah, that says a lot.

(05-30-2017 12:02 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 08:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 11:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-23-2017 02:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Challenging stretch for the Dodgers: v Cards, v Cubs, @ Cards, @ Brewers, v Nats. Justin Turner will be on the DL for all of 'em. If they can play anywhere near .500 I'll be satisfied. Rockies have a much easier couple of weeks so my expectation is that the Dodgers will fall a couple more games behind. The Rockies opponent I'm rooting for hardest right now? Math. Regression to the mean is coming, right? RIGHT?!

So far, so good. Dodgers have won 6 of the first 7 and miraculously, the Rockies have lost 3 of 5 and the Diamondbacks have lost 3 in a row. In the loss column Dodgers have gone from 2 back to tied. Today was huge - the most ERs Leake has given up this year.

The one thing I'd say about it though is that even in a win on Sunday- Kershaw has to be concerning. 3 homers given up. Looking at his splits- in April he had a 2.55 FIP. This month it's 3.54. Only thing saving him really is his LOB%. April it was 80.4%. May it's been 89.9%

The thing that's funny with Kershaw right now is he would probably run away with the Cy Young award, despite the advanced metrics clearly not favoring him.

I think most of us who pay attention understand that superhuman Kershaw is probably gone. The guy is playing with a herniated disk. If you look at the game log there is a picture emerging, I think. He's still going to dominate games, but probably not as many, and the "off" games are going to be more frequent. Like I said earlier in the thread, he's merely elite now.

I dunno if Kershaw would "run away" with a vote today, but he'd probably win - the voting predictors have him with a solid lead. I think the advanced metrics have a cluster of guys in the running, including Kershaw, with no real standout. It's going to be fun to watch the rest of the season. You've got Scherzer and Strasburg right in the mix, and if he doesn't skip too many starts, Alex Wood is going to get some notice. So we'll see if teammates steal votes from each other if they all keep this up.

Kershaw has had 6 starts vs Colorado, Cubs, and Arizona. In those 6 starts he's had a 3.02 ERA and slash line against of .244/.265/.423 with a .689 OPS.
He's had 5 starts vs San Diego and San Francisco. In those 5 starts he's had a 1.57 ERA and slash line against of .192/.223/.304 for a .527 OPS.

San Diego and San Francisco are by far the 2 worst offenses in the NL- 3.43 and 3.38 runs scored per game(lowest in the NL by .55 runs).

Kershaw's next few starts-
Milwaukee 5.08 runs per game
Washington 5.54 runs per game
Cleveland 4.43 runs per game(will have DH)
NY Mets 5.10 runs per game(bet you're surprised by that)
Colorado 5.13 runs per game
LA Angels 4.00 runs per game(will have DH- but no Trout)
Arizona 4.92 runs per game
KC Royals 3.44 runs per game(no DH, but scheduled Sunday before Break- so might not get to make that start)

So in the 8 games before the break, he sees the top 4 NL offenses and 2 AL offenses with the dh in play.

Sale with a bad game tonight so far. 3 innings pitched(80 pitches) and 4 runs(3 earned). Sure the advanced metrics folks will love the 7 k's to only 2 walks- but still it's 3 earned runs in 3 innings. He's now up to 3.99 ERA in the month of May. And definitely not trending in the right direction. He's up though 7-4 so might get a win- though would need to get thru 2 more innings.

and then a 2 run homer in the 4th. he's now up to a 2.81 season ERA. 4.35 for the month of May. Sale's definitely going to need Keuchel and Santana to come back to earth. And he's got to get back on track here.

(05-30-2017 12:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Kershaw has had 6 starts vs Colorado, Cubs, and Arizona. In those 6 starts he's had a 3.02 ERA and slash line against of .244/.265/.423 with a .689 OPS.
He's had 5 starts vs San Diego and San Francisco. In those 5 starts he's had a 1.57 ERA and slash line against of .192/.223/.304 for a .527 OPS.

San Diego and San Francisco are by far the 2 worst offenses in the NL- 3.43 and 3.38 runs scored per game(lowest in the NL by .55 runs).

Kershaw's next few starts-
Milwaukee 5.08 runs per game
Washington 5.54 runs per game
Cleveland 4.43 runs per game(will have DH)
NY Mets 5.10 runs per game(bet you're surprised by that)
Colorado 5.13 runs per game
LA Angels 4.00 runs per game(will have DH- but no Trout)
Arizona 4.92 runs per game
KC Royals 3.44 runs per game(no DH, but scheduled Sunday before Break- so might not get to make that start)

So in the 8 games before the break, he sees the top 4 NL offenses and 2 AL offenses with the dh in play.

And I expect his record against those teams is going to reflect what I said earlier. He stunk up the joint vs CHC, but the previous outing was probably his best of the year vs STL. You're not going to win an argument saying his ERA is really good against poor teams and mediocre against good teams. That's a pretty blinding glimpse of the obvious. If your point is, we'll see as he takes on a bunch of decent teams in the next month +, well, yeah. Baseball.

(05-30-2017 10:21 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 12:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Kershaw has had 6 starts vs Colorado, Cubs, and Arizona. In those 6 starts he's had a 3.02 ERA and slash line against of .244/.265/.423 with a .689 OPS.
He's had 5 starts vs San Diego and San Francisco. In those 5 starts he's had a 1.57 ERA and slash line against of .192/.223/.304 for a .527 OPS.

San Diego and San Francisco are by far the 2 worst offenses in the NL- 3.43 and 3.38 runs scored per game(lowest in the NL by .55 runs).

Kershaw's next few starts-
Milwaukee 5.08 runs per game
Washington 5.54 runs per game
Cleveland 4.43 runs per game(will have DH)
NY Mets 5.10 runs per game(bet you're surprised by that)
Colorado 5.13 runs per game
LA Angels 4.00 runs per game(will have DH- but no Trout)
Arizona 4.92 runs per game
KC Royals 3.44 runs per game(no DH, but scheduled Sunday before Break- so might not get to make that start)

So in the 8 games before the break, he sees the top 4 NL offenses and 2 AL offenses with the dh in play.

And I expect his record against those teams is going to reflect what I said earlier. He stunk up the joint vs CHC, but the previous outing was probably his best of the year vs STL. You're not going to win an argument saying his ERA is really good against poor teams and mediocre against good teams. That's a pretty blinding glimpse of the obvious. If your point is, we'll see as he takes on a bunch of decent teams in the next month +, well, yeah. Baseball.

I'm saying that he's gotten pretty fat off of the Padres and Giants. He's had 6 starts against decent teams and his ERA is double when they see the Padres and Giants(by far 2 of the 3 worst offensive teams in MLB this year). He won't see anyone nearly as bad as those for another 6 starts.

And now instead of seeing those bad teams, he's going to see the top 4 NL offenses(in his next 5 games)- with the Indians an average team in a DH game as the 5th game.

Also you get the cumulative effect of having tough opponents time after time after time.

wow, was just looking. Going into tonight, starting pitchers have had quality starts in only 46% of starts this year. Would be lowest percentage since 2000. So not even half the time we see a starter go 6 giving up 3 runs or less. Just remarkable. Starters aren't even averaging 6 innings per start.

something to watch tonight:
ELIAS: If there are 47 homers Wednesday, May will set a record for the most homers in ANY calendar month in MLB history.