(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote: I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.
Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.
1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.
Montana and Montana State turned down the Big West, they turned down the WAC, there simply is no evidence that either wants FBS. More importantly if you look at the attendance of the two as a ratio of state population, they draw like Alabama and Auburn. It just isn't likely that becoming FBS draws in enough fans to justify the move and that's before addressing the probability that such a move costs them a win or two (or more) per year. They sell winning.
Jacksonville State, is almost exactly the same size as Louisiana Monroe, the most under-funded program in FBS. It is unlikely they have the resources to fund the move and fund the scheduling required. Getting four FBS schools to come in and a full scholarship FCS every year is a significant challenge and unlike Liberty they don't have the TV access.
Yale. Moving FBS requires awarding 200 athletic scholarships. That is incompatible with their identity.
James Madison. Like Liberty they sit in a high concentration area of FBS schools. Scheduling is much more feasible. The challenge as an independent would be cost with the state imposing financing limits.
NDSU might be able to tap effectively into the Fox Regional Sports Net system because there isn't a lot of competing content in the region (that wouldn't be a revenue source but at least provides exposure), the problem becomes financing and whether they can increase attendance enough for the move to make financial sense.
Southern actually looked at a move in the late 90's. There was a proposal to get Southern and a few other SWAC's to join with schools that became the Sun Belt to feed the champion to the proposed Mobile Bowl. The loss of Classics and traditional rivalries was deemed to be too much a strain.
Delaware if they have the resources make a lot of sense, as long as they can fund but they've been approached over the years and never shown interest. In the cable/satellite/online universe they make more sense. There has never been a stand alone TV market in the state but the market era has long passed. Their issue is simply a question of resources and with state schools that is always a significant question.
SC State I simply don't know enough particulars there to comment.
Florida A&M very nearly became a member of the Sun Belt. They had declared their intention to join FBS and the Sun Belt was quite intrigued. They visited saw the state of facilities and lost enthusiasm. Once they had the chance to look at the books the league fled the city ASAP. If things are financially better and they have the resources, maybe they can pull it off.
NC A&T, another I don't know enough about.
Youngstown. Can they fund it? Can they get the games?