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FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
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msm96wolf Offline
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FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2017 11:07 AM by msm96wolf.)
02-17-2017 10:55 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: Return to FBS independents - Top contenders.
Seems like this should have been included with the Liberty to FBS article. Look for mor FBS Independents.

Liberty said, in its Thursday press release, that the FBS waiver was approved after “feedback” from the NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning Committee, the NCAA Division Football Oversight Committee and the NCAA office of legal affairs.

“Football Oversight provided input, but it was not our decision,” oversight committee chair Bob Bowlsby told CBS Sports. “I don’t remember a concern arising during the meetings I was in.”

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...stigation/
02-17-2017 11:06 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
I think the thing is, you're going to find the P5 wanting this to happen due to the fact that more FBS teams means there's more supply of bodybag teams for games, and thus will lower the cost of that. If there's 75 non p5 teams instead of what is it 60 now, those extra 15 teams will make things much less expensive for the buy games.
02-17-2017 11:29 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the thing is, you're going to find the P5 wanting this to happen due to the fact that more FBS teams means there's more supply of bodybag teams for games, and thus will lower the cost of that. If there's 75 non p5 teams instead of what is it 60 now, those extra 15 teams will make things much less expensive for the buy games.

And new independents won't be eligible for huge amounts of CFP money, which should remove some concern from the existing FBS conferences and the CFP organization about having to pay 75 instead of 60. Of course, a pessimist could just point out that the CFP really says "OK G5, here's your slice of the pie ... you do with that what you want, regardless how many are in your ranks".
02-17-2017 11:34 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Here's the thing: Liberty has so much money to back this, because they have so many online students. So while they aren't going for profit, per se, they are bringing in truck loads of cash.

It would be like if NDSU, JMU, Montana, etc had 100k undergrad students, paying tuition.

And that money can pay for lawyers too, to sue the NCAA.


That's why I think this is a special one-off, and you won't see any other schools copy this in the near future.
02-17-2017 11:35 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
And for FWIW, the NDSU athletic director is recently (within the last few months I believe) on record saying NDSU has no interest in FBS independence.

I'd bet Montana, JMU, etc feel the same way. In other words, if FBS is going to be on the table, it has to be as a full, card-carrying member of the G5 with a conference invite and a full conference share of revenue distribution.
02-17-2017 11:36 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.

I don't think that many schools will follow LU.

Lets move through them.

1) Montana. Could try for it. But it would be terribly expensive. And they wouldn't get in the MWC. Idaho is committed to moving down. Barring a massive move out of FCS, there will be no FBS WAC or Big Sky.
2) Jacksonville State. Wants to jump. Badly. But they're poor and they're not in an economically or demographically growing area. Small enrollment. And there are THREE P5 programs and FIVE FBS programs within two hours of the school. And all of those schools have better media access than JSU. I don't see them being successful at jumping. Also, their current conference will probably kick them out.
3) Ivy league schools will not be jumping. Period
4) JMU might jump, but seeing as they turned down the Sun Belt, which will probably have better scheduling, will have more money, and will have better bowl access, I don't see them jumping now. Possible, but unlikely.
5) Montana State - See Montana
6) Liberty - They're jumping.
7) NDSU - Could jump. Probably the best team on the table.
8) SWAC teams aren't jumping
9) Delaware appears to be not interested at this time
10) MEAC teams aren't jumping.
13) Possible but its really expensive for them to do so. They would be the EIGHTH FBS program in Ohio.

---

Guys, this comes down to money. Without the CFP money, and with the extra (and more expensive) coaches and scholarships involved with moving up, and without a conference or a scheduling alliance of nearby teams, moving to FBS gets really expensive really quickly. And that's before facilities come into play.
02-17-2017 11:44 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
Well, at NDSU and probably Montana, JMU, and a handful of others, facilities and FCOA scholarships are already in place.

At least at NDSU, they're already riding on the edge of balancing female varsity participation to satisfy Title IX. While going to FBS doesn't change the participation numbers for football (just puts more of those participants on scholarships), there may or may not be an unwritten expectation to up the spending on female programs.

But yes, more coaches, more scholarships, more spending in general.

It ain't free. And these schools don't have 70k online tuition paying students, who cost very little in overhead.
02-17-2017 11:51 AM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 11:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.

I don't think that many schools will follow LU.

Lets move through them.

1) Montana. Could try for it. But it would be terribly expensive. And they wouldn't get in the MWC. Idaho is committed to moving down. Barring a massive move out of FCS, there will be no FBS WAC or Big Sky.
2) Jacksonville State. Wants to jump. Badly. But they're poor and they're not in an economically or demographically growing area. Small enrollment. And there are THREE P5 programs and FIVE FBS programs within two hours of the school. And all of those schools have better media access than JSU. I don't see them being successful at jumping. Also, their current conference will probably kick them out.
3) Ivy league schools will not be jumping. Period
4) JMU might jump, but seeing as they turned down the Sun Belt, which will probably have better scheduling, will have more money, and will have better bowl access, I don't see them jumping now. Possible, but unlikely.
5) Montana State - See Montana
6) Liberty - They're jumping.
7) NDSU - Could jump. Probably the best team on the table.
8) SWAC teams aren't jumping
9) Delaware appears to be not interested at this time
10) MEAC teams aren't jumping.
13) Possible but its really expensive for them to do so. They would be the EIGHTH FBS program in Ohio.

---

Guys, this comes down to money. Without the CFP money, and with the extra (and more expensive) coaches and scholarships involved with moving up, and without a conference or a scheduling alliance of nearby teams, moving to FBS gets really expensive really quickly. And that's before facilities come into play.

Good analysis.
What I believe is that only wealthy private schools could make the jump to FBS Indy who have facilities already that are FBS level or can get there with little effort and have had the attendance to support.
That puts the list at:

Villanova - While looking into FBS with the Big East, being Indy gives them more flexibility to meet their own needs instead of a conference.

Lehigh - has a 16k seated facility but has bowl in the endzone for additional berm seating. Could easily add with minimal $$.

Lafayette - While having 13.5k seating, they have additional room to add for expansion. Would be a mid $$ to improve, but they have the fan support to go along with it.

Both Lehigh and Lafayette could move up at the same time and have the oldest rivalry in the college football. Both have good football facilities and are able to expand or improve with minor $$

Holy Cross - Already has a nice 24k football facility.

These 4 are probably the best that could jump to Indy status. While there are others like Richmond, they don't have the facilities or support to make a big jump to FBS.
02-17-2017 12:34 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: FBS independents - Top contenders and link about NCAA Strategic Vision and Planning
(02-17-2017 12:34 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 11:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-17-2017 10:55 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I know many of you are too young to remember when Independent football was not that uncommon. I actually am for it. I doubt the P5 will have issues with it because it provides more home games for them. I do see why the G5 will hate it, because it harms them more financially. My problem with the G5 argument, the is unfair for the P5 to make more money but is ok for the G5 to be against FBS independents because it could impact their profit. I a free market person, the market will bear what it wants.

Using the 15K rule for FBS and 2015 attendance. Here are my predictions on next Independents.

1. Montana 7 168,975 24,139 Strong Contender. Really should be in MWC and Replace Hawaii who should go Indy.
2. Jacksonville St. 8 164,781 20,598 Has show strong interest but finance is big question.
3. Yale 4 82,189 20,547 Does anything need to be said?
4. James Madison 7 136,483 19,498 Strong Contender. Really should be in SBC but missed the ship
5. Montana St. 6 115,032 19,172 Strong Contender. Could be start of Big Sky/WAC rehash.
6. Liberty 5 94,950 18,990 Done Deal
7. North Dakota St. 9 166,472 18,497 Should have happened with Libery
8. Southern U. 4 73,239 18,310 Finance is big question. Especially La state finances.
9. Delaware 6 94,954 15,826 Probably most surprising and deserving. Be a great fit with UMASS.
10. South Carolina St. 5 78,147 15,629 With Coastal might be hard
11. Florida A&M 4 60,240 15,060 Florida already FBS overload
12. N.C. A&T 5 74,940 14,988 NC already FBS overload doubt there is room for 8th FBS team
13. Youngstown St. 6 89,125 14,854 Similar to Delaware and is a football town. Very Marshall type program.

I don't think that many schools will follow LU.

Lets move through them.

1) Montana. Could try for it. But it would be terribly expensive. And they wouldn't get in the MWC. Idaho is committed to moving down. Barring a massive move out of FCS, there will be no FBS WAC or Big Sky.
2) Jacksonville State. Wants to jump. Badly. But they're poor and they're not in an economically or demographically growing area. Small enrollment. And there are THREE P5 programs and FIVE FBS programs within two hours of the school. And all of those schools have better media access than JSU. I don't see them being successful at jumping. Also, their current conference will probably kick them out.
3) Ivy league schools will not be jumping. Period
4) JMU might jump, but seeing as they turned down the Sun Belt, which will probably have better scheduling, will have more money, and will have better bowl access, I don't see them jumping now. Possible, but unlikely.
5) Montana State - See Montana
6) Liberty - They're jumping.
7) NDSU - Could jump. Probably the best team on the table.
8) SWAC teams aren't jumping
9) Delaware appears to be not interested at this time
10) MEAC teams aren't jumping.
13) Possible but its really expensive for them to do so. They would be the EIGHTH FBS program in Ohio.

---

Guys, this comes down to money. Without the CFP money, and with the extra (and more expensive) coaches and scholarships involved with moving up, and without a conference or a scheduling alliance of nearby teams, moving to FBS gets really expensive really quickly. And that's before facilities come into play.

Good analysis.
What I believe is that only wealthy private schools could make the jump to FBS Indy who have facilities already that are FBS level or can get there with little effort and have had the attendance to support.
That puts the list at:

Villanova - While looking into FBS with the Big East, being Indy gives them more flexibility to meet their own needs instead of a conference.

Lehigh - has a 16k seated facility but has bowl in the endzone for additional berm seating. Could easily add with minimal $$.

Lafayette - While having 13.5k seating, they have additional room to add for expansion. Would be a mid $$ to improve, but they have the fan support to go along with it.

Both Lehigh and Lafayette could move up at the same time and have the oldest rivalry in the college football. Both have good football facilities and are able to expand or improve with minor $$

Holy Cross - Already has a nice 24k football facility.

These 4 are probably the best that could jump to Indy status. While there are others like Richmond, they don't have the facilities or support to make a big jump to FBS.

None of those schools will jump.
02-17-2017 12:37 PM
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