(09-15-2015 09:24 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 05:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  14 if you include 2 and 0 Charlotte and 2 and 0 BYU.

You can't count BYU. They don't get the G5 Access bowl spot.

With Boise and Cincy going down, it looks like the non-AQ's may not have a big name representative in an AQ bowl this year. There could be some additional upsets in conference championship games as well. What if the best non-AQ is a 2 loss team without a big name?

Now, imagine another ingredient of a perfect storm. BYU is getting publicity right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've played much better than last year to be close enough in the fourth quarter. If there is some perfect storm and we end the regular season with one loss, we will certainly be more highly ranked than a 2 loss non-AQ. The bowl organizations and the TV people would certainly prefer BYU to other non-AQ teams. Does that push the top level bowls to renegotiate and have a "Major independent" clause where if an independent is top 10 and the best nonAQ is outside the top 10 they can take the independent team? The G5 may complain long and loud, but from a competition standpoint it seems to be fair.

On a side note, here is the ranking comparison for 1 and 2 loss non-AQ teams before the bowls. I would imagine it would be a decent model for how a selection committee may rank the teams. It may also indicate where a 1 or 2 loss BYU may end up. (year, team, rank, losses)

2014
BSU 22 2
Marshall 27 1
CSU 33 2
N Ill 49 2

2013
UCF 23 1
N Ill 26 1
Fresno St 30 1
Ball St 50 2

2012
N Ill 22 1
Ut St 23 2
SJSU 25 2
BSU 26 2

2011
BSU 6 1
Houston 16 1
TCU 18 2

Given BYU's schedule I would estimate that they would end up somewhere between the 2011 BSU and Houston, 6-16 (though probably near the middle of that spread). A 2 loss BYU would probably not be as high as 2011 TCU, but probably ahead of 2014 BSU and 2012 Utah St, probably around 20. Not sure a 2-loss BYU would be enough to encourage a contract change, but a 1-loss BYU may do it.

it would be taken to court so fast. Considering the G5 is half of the CFP- it's not happening. BYU doesn't like it- join a conference.

(09-13-2015 07:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bottom Line: With Boise losing, the spot is now totally up for grabs.

Given how well the AAC has performed so far, I would say that all else equal the AAC champ has the best chance right now. But of course there are tons of games to be played.

If it is like past history through the time of Big East? The AAC may canabalized each other like they did last year with a 3 way tie for the title.

Ties can't happen this year as there are 2 divisions with a 2-3 teams in each that could theoretically and realistically qualify based on SOS.

The AAC race will be very interesting. Top contenders in this order for each division.

East - Temple, Cincy, ECU
West - Houston, Memphis, Navy

Overall I think Houston has the easiest path forward but Temple has the highest quality wins to date. Memphis has a pretty toigh path drawing Temple AND Cincy cross division + OOC vs Ole Miss.

Big game coming up 9/19 ECU @ Navy.

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(09-15-2015 10:35 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bottom Line: With Boise losing, the spot is now totally up for grabs.

Given how well the AAC has performed so far, I would say that all else equal the AAC champ has the best chance right now. But of course there are tons of games to be played.

If it is like past history through the time of Big East? The AAC may canabalized each other like they did last year with a 3 way tie for the title.

Ties xan't happen this year as there are 2 divisions with a 2-3 teams in each that could theoretically qualify.

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Big 12 had a three way tie for 1st with Missouri, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Missouri beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma beat Kansas State and Kansas State beat Missouri.

(09-15-2015 10:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  it would be taken to court so fast. Considering the G5 is half of the CFP- it's not happening. BYU doesn't like it- join a conference.

Yeah, it's not happening. If you make a Major Independent carve out, BYU or Notre Dame would land the Access Bowl spot more often than the Group of 5 champion.

What BYU needs to do is have a string of ranked finishes and at least one appearance in the NY6 as an at large selection. Then, BYU might be able to get a Notre Dame-esque deal with the Fiesta Bowl the next time around.

(09-15-2015 10:39 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 10:35 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bottom Line: With Boise losing, the spot is now totally up for grabs.

Given how well the AAC has performed so far, I would say that all else equal the AAC champ has the best chance right now. But of course there are tons of games to be played.

If it is like past history through the time of Big East? The AAC may canabalized each other like they did last year with a 3 way tie for the title.

Ties xan't happen this year as there are 2 divisions with a 2-3 teams in each that could theoretically qualify.

Sent from my XT1030 using Tapatalk

Big 12 had a three way tie for 1st with Missouri, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Missouri beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma beat Kansas State and Kansas State beat Missouri.

So what? They also had a championship game at the time to determine the conference champ. Tiebreaker only applied to divisions.

(09-15-2015 10:12 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 09:24 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 05:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  14 if you include 2 and 0 Charlotte and 2 and 0 BYU.

You can't count BYU. They don't get the G5 Access bowl spot.

With Boise and Cincy going down, it looks like the non-AQ's may not have a big name representative in an AQ bowl this year. There could be some additional upsets in conference championship games as well. What if the best non-AQ is a 2 loss team without a big name?

Now, imagine another ingredient of a perfect storm. BYU is getting publicity right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've played much better than last year to be close enough in the fourth quarter. If there is some perfect storm and we end the regular season with one loss, we will certainly be more highly ranked than a 2 loss non-AQ. The bowl organizations and the TV people would certainly prefer BYU to other non-AQ teams. It On a side note, here is the ranking comparison for 1 and 2 loss non-AQ teams before the bowls. I would imagine it would be a decent model for how a selection committee may rank the teams. It may also indicate where a 1 or 2 loss BYU may end up. (year, team, rank, losses)

2014
BSU 22 2
Marshall 27 1
CSU 33 2
N Ill 49 2

2013
UCF 23 1
N Ill 26 1
Fresno St 30 1
Ball St 50 2

2012
N Ill 22 1
Ut St 23 2
SJSU 25 2
BSU 26 2

2011
BSU 6 1
Houston 16 1
TCU 18 2

Given BYU's schedule I would estimate that they would end up somewhere between the 2011 BSU and Houston, 6-16 (though probably near the middle of that spread). A 2 loss BYU would probably not be as high as 2011 TCU, but probably ahead of 2014 BSU and 2012 Utah St, probably around 20. Not sure a 2-loss BYU would be enough to encourage a contract change, but a 1-loss BYU may do it.

It has zero chance, mainly because including independents in the G5 slot would virtually guarantee Notre Dame a annual permanent access bowl slot. No conferences, G5 or P5, are going to vote for that. The access bowl slot was designed to create an access point for the 62 G5 teams. Giving it to Notre Dame would effectively undo that and create a virtual lock-out of the G5.

If BYU wants access to that G5 slot, they ALREADY HAVE an avenue to gain direct access to the G5 slot---just join a G5 conference. Any of the 5 will take them in an instant. BYU has chosen its own path, which has many advantages---more income, more freedom, and frankly, a realistic shot at the actual playoff due to the fact they can feasibly assemble a schedule SOS that can come reasonably close to a P5 schedule. BYU is where BYU wants to be.

Notre Dame already has a "BCS" Bowl tie-in. So they don't need to be attributed to the Access Bowl that has a best-of-G5 tie-in.

BYU can complain that they want what ND has... but sorry. Until you land a contract with one of the major network stations to show All home games Nationally like ND has -- you won't be considered a P5-independent.

BYU is trying to join the B12, and they most likely will if they're willing to wait 3-6 years or so + be lax on Sunday travel of road games for various sports.

BUT, as Attackcoog said -- BYU has an Advantage being independent. They get more $$, more freedom, and a better shot at the Playoffs with better control over SoS. They want to be the Mormon version of ND? Great. That's what they'll have to do -- or at least be close to it so P5s will be knocking on their door and not the other way around.

What I think is going to be so funny- we've been hearing all along how it's fine BYU not being eligible for the G5 spot- it's meaningless- and now the 1st time the situation possibly comes up, there's BYU fans bitching about it.

(09-15-2015 10:12 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 09:24 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 05:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  14 if you include 2 and 0 Charlotte and 2 and 0 BYU.

You can't count BYU. They don't get the G5 Access bowl spot.

With Boise and Cincy going down, it looks like the non-AQ's may not have a big name representative in an AQ bowl this year. There could be some additional upsets in conference championship games as well. What if the best non-AQ is a 2 loss team without a big name?

Now, imagine another ingredient of a perfect storm. BYU is getting publicity right now, but the fact of the matter is that we've played much better than last year to be close enough in the fourth quarter. If there is some perfect storm and we end the regular season with one loss, we will certainly be more highly ranked than a 2 loss non-AQ. The bowl organizations and the TV people would certainly prefer BYU to other non-AQ teams. Does that push the top level bowls to renegotiate and have a "Major independent" clause where if an independent is top 10 and the best nonAQ is outside the top 10 they can take the independent team? The G5 may complain long and loud, but from a competition standpoint it seems to be fair.

Fairness has nothing to do with the P5/G5 agreements.

BYU would be SOL and it would stay that way.

(09-15-2015 02:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  What I think is going to be so funny- we've been hearing all along how it's fine BYU not being eligible for the G5 spot- it's meaningless- and now the 1st time the situation possibly comes up, there's BYU fans bitching about it.

Exactly right! Their board claims the schedule is just like an Access bowl so the NYD bowl is meaningless....but now they are ranked they are all crazy wondering if they get to go to a NYD bowl.

I didn't hear anyone who said that an NY6 bowl via the G5 access bid would be meaningless and I don't see much talk or whining right now about NY6 bowls. In fact, ALL the discussion this week is about UCLA and nut-gate.

Anyone who says it would be meaningless is hiding their jealousy. Anyone who is whining about NY6 bowls in 2015 is delusional - BYU will have its hands full with UCLA and then Michigan.

With regards to independence and the access bowl bid, BYU has made a very calculated decision to forfeit a potentially easier path to the NY6 in exchange for exposure, fan access, flexibility, and hopefully better schedules. That doesn't mean anyone thinks the access bowl bid is meaningless.