Since its going to be in the peach bowl this year, the AAC champ definitely has an advantage over Boise

(09-12-2015 10:33 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Since its going to be in the peach bowl this year, the AAC champ definitely has an advantage over Boise

No the AAC has an advantage because the MWC is stinking it up in the non-conference schedule this year.

Mississippi 73 - Fresno St 21
Eastern Michigan 48 - Wyoming 29
Tulsa 40 - New Mexico 21
California 35 - San Diego St. 7
Ohio St. 38 - Hawaii 0
UCLA 34 - UNLV 0
BYU 35 - Boise St. 24
Arizona 44 - Nevada 20
Utah 24 - Utah St. 14
Minnesota 23 - Colorado St. 20

MWC was a combined 0-10 this week.

Down goes Boise

(09-12-2015 10:19 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Temple looks like the real deal. The access bowl is theirs to lose if they handle business in the AAC and manage to beat ND then there is no way Boise gets in ahead of them.

Boise has zero ranked teams on their schedule and almost zero chance of any conference foes getting ranked.

If I had to rank the G5 teams right now I would say:

1. Temple
2. Boise (if they win)
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. NIU
6. Toledo

Everyone else is pretty much out of the discussion IMO unless these teams fall out.

BYU?

(09-13-2015 12:52 AM)IAH Wrote:  

(09-12-2015 10:19 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Temple looks like the real deal. The access bowl is theirs to lose if they handle business in the AAC and manage to beat ND then there is no way Boise gets in ahead of them.

Boise has zero ranked teams on their schedule and almost zero chance of any conference foes getting ranked.

If I had to rank the G5 teams right now I would say:

1. Temple
2. Boise (if they win)
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. NIU
6. Toledo

Everyone else is pretty much out of the discussion IMO unless these teams fall out.

BYU?

not eligible for the G5 slot.

(09-12-2015 10:24 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(09-12-2015 03:11 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(09-09-2015 09:48 PM)polkhigh Wrote:  This week's opponents

1. Boise State @ BYU-Boise State
2. Marshall @ Ohio- Ohio
3. Memphis @ Kansas - Memphis
4. Louisiana Tech @ WKU- LA Tech
5. Utah State @ Utah- Utah
*6. Cincinnati vs Temple- Cincinnati
7. Rice @ Texas- Texas
8. Colorado State vs Minnesota- Minnesota
9. ECU @ Florida- Florida


Anybody have any picks ?

You realize WKU beat LaTech on Thursday... 2 days prior to you picking LaTech...

Next time, don't tell him, just make a bet with him.

here are all the undefeated G5 teams left.
Temple- @ UMass
UConn- @ Missouri
Houston- bye
Memphis- @ Bowling Green
Tulsa- @ Oklahoma
Navy- East Carolina
W Kentucky- @ Indiana
Old Dominion- NC State
Ohio- SE Louisiana
N Illinois- @ Ohio St
Toledo- Iowa St
Air Force- @ Michigan St

that's 12 teams left. got several big dogs next weekend.

(09-12-2015 10:19 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Temple looks like the real deal. The access bowl is theirs to lose if they handle business in the AAC and manage to beat ND then there is no way Boise gets in ahead of them.

Boise has zero ranked teams on their schedule and almost zero chance of any conference foes getting ranked.

If I had to rank the G5 teams right now I would say:

1. Temple
2. Boise (if they win)
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. NIU
6. Toledo

Last year Boise State picked up the G5 slot with 2 losses. They played Mississippi early in the year and were crushed.

What that says then is that it's not your record that is important as much as your schedule, provided you win the conference and finish with double digit wins.

Temple has a great schedule with Penn State and Notre Dame on it. They beat Penn State and Cincinnati already through 2 games. They will probably be 6-0 going into a road game with East Carolina. A record of 11-2 with losses to ECU and Notre Dame but winning the AAC championship game would be a tough resume to beat. One thing I believe hurts Temple like it did for ECU last year is they don't have a double digit win tradition so they may choke in conference.

Boise State has 1 loss to BYU. They did beat Washington but they don't have a ranked team on the non-conference schedule this year. The MWC is having a poor OOC year which doesn't help matters. The MWC is looking like they are having a down year.

Toledo has defeated a top 20 team in Arkansas, the best G5 win of the season. Next week they host Iowa State which is winnable and then following that play another strong opponent in Arkansas State week 3. They also have BGSU and NIU on the schedule every year so one of the tougher MAC schedules. They've got to be at least in the Top 2 along with Temple for that G5 slot.

NIU might be attractive with a loss to Ohio State but they beat Boston College. They are out of the relatively tough MAC West and have Ohio on the conference schedule. I would put their resume behind Toledo's since they had a Top 20 win.

Memphis has an important road game next week at Bowling Green. They win that and the AAC then the result of what happens against Ole Miss isn't important. They looked really good against Kansas but BGSU looked really good against Maryland.

BGSU had the Tennessee loss but UT looks like they might be poised for a big season. They beat Maryland and have Memphis at home next week. BGSU plays Ohio and Toledo in the conference schedule and potentially NIU in the MAC championship game.

For the G5 spot then I see the MAC having more of the leg up this year overall.

1. Toledo (They beat #18 Arkansas)
2. Northern Illinois (They play #1 OSU, plus a strong MAC schedule)
3. Temple (They play #9 Notre Dame)
4. Bowling Green (They play Memphis & Toledo)
5. Western Kentucky (Win over Vandy + #14 LSU on the schedule)

The MAC as I see it is in the driver seat because the best 3 schools all loaded up in the non-conference schedule.

(09-13-2015 01:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  here are all the undefeated G5 teams left.
Temple- @ UMass
UConn- @ Missouri
Houston- bye
Memphis- @ Bowling Green
Tulsa- @ Oklahoma
Navy- East Carolina
W Kentucky- @ Indiana
Old Dominion- NC State
Ohio- SE Louisiana
N Illinois- @ Ohio St
Toledo- Iowa St
Air Force- @ Michigan St

that's 12 teams left. got several big dogs next weekend.

We went through this last year and team record is less meaningful than who a school beat or played.

NIU could lay an egg at Ohio State like Boise did at Ole Miss and just by the fact they played Ohio State it will earn them credibility.

Ohio is the school that is most likely looking at a 3-0 record but they aren't at all in the G5 autobid conversation because they haven't played anyone.

if any of the AAC schools finish undefeated- they will be the G5 rep.

Records don't matter when you have garbage schedules. All of the AAC schools have good schedules.

(09-13-2015 01:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  if any of the AAC schools finish undefeated- they will be the G5 rep.

Records don't matter when you have garbage schedules. All of the AAC schools have good schedules.

If Boise State wins out the rest of their games, and BYU, Toledo and others lose 2 or more games? Boise State will be in the driver's seat.

Colorado State, UNR, Utah State and New Mexico games were close games for a bit. Since it is early, those schools could get better in the year. Air Force played San Jose State so at least 1 MWC school gets a win.

1) Boise-even with one or two losses, they'll likely get the spot
2) Temple- I see them losing a couple games, and perception allows Boise to get the jump
3) Memphis- see above
4) Northern Illinois- they'll lose big to OSU and probably a few times in conference
5) LaTech- they'll likely lose to LSU but could go undefeated the rest of the way in conference and move up this list
6) Toledo- I think the Arkansas win won't translate to many wins in conference
7) ECU- when they show me they can get through a conference schedule unscathed come back to me
8) WKU- the Allen injury probably means a season closer to 8-4 than 11-1
9) Houston- pretty impressive win over Louisville, but they call it Coug'd it for a reason
10) Ohio- schedule isn't good enough for a team that will go about 9-3

*This is a list projecting to December, not a current power ranking.

Bottom Line: With Boise losing, the spot is now totally up for grabs.

Given how well the AAC has performed so far, I would say that all else equal the AAC champ has the best chance right now. But of course there are tons of games to be played.

(09-13-2015 07:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Bottom Line: With Boise losing, the spot is now totally up for grabs.

Given how well the AAC has performed so far, I would say that all else equal the AAC champ has the best chance right now. But of course there are tons of games to be played.

If it is like past history through the time of Big East? The AAC may canabalized each other like they did last year with a 3 way tie for the title.

I've got Temple and Houston as the leaders

You would have to throw Toledo in with Temple and Houston.

(09-13-2015 07:41 AM)herdfan2013 Wrote:  1) Boise-even with one or two losses, they'll likely get the spot
2) Temple- I see them losing a couple games, and perception allows Boise to get the jump
3) Memphis- see above
4) Northern Illinois- they'll lose big to OSU and probably a few times in conference
5) LaTech- they'll likely lose to LSU but could go undefeated in conference and move up this list
6) Toledo- I think the Arkansas win won't translate to many wins in conference
7) ECU- when they show me they can get through a conference schedule unscathed come back to me
8) WKU- the Allen injury probably means a season closer to 8-4 than 11-1
9) Houston- pretty impressive win over Louisville, but they call it Coug'd it for a reason
10) Ohio- schedule isn't good enough for a team that will go about 9-3

*This is a list projecting to December, not a current power ranking.

LaTach can't go undefeated in conference play. They lost to WKU. Both are in C-USA.

(09-13-2015 08:59 AM)freshtop Wrote:  

(09-13-2015 07:41 AM)herdfan2013 Wrote:  1) Boise-even with one or two losses, they'll likely get the spot
2) Temple- I see them losing a couple games, and perception allows Boise to get the jump
3) Memphis- see above
4) Northern Illinois- they'll lose big to OSU and probably a few times in conference
5) LaTech- they'll likely lose to LSU but could go undefeated in conference and move up this list
6) Toledo- I think the Arkansas win won't translate to many wins in conference
7) ECU- when they show me they can get through a conference schedule unscathed come back to me
8) WKU- the Allen injury probably means a season closer to 8-4 than 11-1
9) Houston- pretty impressive win over Louisville, but they call it Coug'd it for a reason
10) Ohio- schedule isn't good enough for a team that will go about 9-3

*This is a list projecting to December, not a current power ranking.

LaTach can't go undefeated in conference play. They lost to WKU. Both are in C-USA.

D'oh. I guess not. 7-1 rest of the way.

If its close the AAC will get it. Bank on it

Interesting possible scenario regarding Toledo- their first game vs an FCS opponent was cancelled because of lightening. After beating a ranked SEC team on the road the Rockets have 2 remaining OOC games, both at home- Arkansas State and Iowa State. Toledo has a reasonable chance to win both of those games.

Now look at Toledo's performance in conference play. In the past 5 seasons in conference games Toledo is-

0-5 vs Northern Illinois
2-3 vs Ball State
30-1 vs rest of MAC

Toledo gets NIU at home and BSU on the road this year, it's not unreasonable to think that they could split the pair and finish with a conference record of 7-1.

So the question is- could a 10-1 Toledo team with wins over SEC and Big XII teams be disadvantaged for not having the additional win vs an FCS opponent? Will it be a factor?