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Are P5's going to 16?
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YNot Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 11:39 AM)YNot Wrote:  I'd prefer to see a new Division 4 consisting of expanded versions of the PAC, SEC, B1G, ACC, and AAC - about 80 teams or so in 5 conferences. The CFP consists of the 5 conference champs and 3 wild cards/at large.

Then, the FBS consists of those left from the MWC, C-USA, MAC, and Sun Belt and some FCS call-ups like NDSU, Montana, Coastal Carolina, Missouri St., etc. 60 teams or so in 4 or 5 conferences. Have an 8-team FBS playoff with the FBS National Champion earning a trip to the NY6 bowl game against a Division 4 opponent.

Permit Division 4 to play up to 2 FBS opponents and no FCS opponents. FBS can play 1 FCS opponent. This way, the best teams are forced to play each other more often OOC without having to worry about inferior teams with more shiny win-loss records.

DIVISION 4

B1G NORTH: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
B1G EAST: Penn St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Ohio St.
B1G SOUTH: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech
B1G WEST: Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
[20 teams - Add Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas to West and Virginia, UNC, GA Tech and Vandy to South]

SEC EAST: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
SEC SOUTH: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St.
SEC NORTH: Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Duke
SEC WEST: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma St.
[16-teams - Lose Vandy, add Duke, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma St.]

ACC NORTH: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, WVU
ACC SOUTH: Florida St., Clemson, Miami, Wake, NC State
ACC WEST: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas St., Iowa St.
(Notre Dame deal still in place)
[15 teams, plus ND - Lose UVA, UNC, GA TEch, Duke, VA Tech; add WVU, TCU, Baylor, KSU, Iowa St., and TTech]

PAC NORTH: California, Stanford, Oregon, OSU, Washington, WSU
PAC SOUTH: UCLA, USC, Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado
[No Change]

AAC EAST: UCF, USF, UConn, Cincinnati, ECU, Temple
AAC CENTRAL: Houston, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, SMU, Tulsa
AAC WEST: Air Force, Boise St., SDSU, Fresno, New Mexico, Colorado St.
[18 teams - Adds 6-team West division from MWC]

Division 4 Independents: Notre Dame, BYU, and Hawaii

FBS SUBDIVISION

CONFERENCE USA
C-USA EAST: FAU, FIU, ODU, Charlotte, S. Miss
C-USA CENTRAL: Rice, N. Texas, UTSA, UTEP, LA Tech
C-USA NORTH: W. Kentucky, MTU, Marshall, NIU, Toledo
C-USA WEST: Wyoming, UNLV, Nevada, Utah St., SJSU
[20 teams - adds 5 teams from MWC leftovers plus NIU and Toledo from MAC]

MWC disappears as its leftovers are absorbed by C-USA

MAC
MAC EAST: Akron, Kent St., Youngstown St., Buffalo, Army, UMass, Delaware
MAC WEST: Ball St., C. Michigan, E. Michigan, W. Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami(OH), Ohio
[14 teams - loses NIU and Toledo, adds Army, UMass, Delaware and Youngstown St.]

SUN BELT
SB EAST: Georgia Southern, Georgia St., App St., Coastal Carolina, James Madison, Liberty
SB WEST: Texas St., LA-Lafayette, LA-Monroe, Arkansas St., Troy, S. Alabama
[12 teams - adds Coastal Carolina, James Madison, and Liberty]

NEW CONFERENCE:
NMSU, Idaho, Montana, Montana St., E. Washington, NDSU, South Dakota St., N. Iowa, Missouri St., Illinois St.
[10 teams - NMSU and Idaho from FBS plus 8 FCS call-ups

FBS Independents: None
(This post was last modified: 08-31-2015 12:27 PM by YNot.)
08-31-2015 12:11 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 11:39 AM)YNot Wrote:  I'd prefer to see a new Division 4 consisting of expanded versions of the PAC, SEC, B1G, ACC, and AAC - about 80 teams or so in 5 conferences. The CFP consists of the 5 conference champs and 3 wild cards/at large.

Then, the FBS consists of those left from the MWC, C-USA, MAC, and Sun Belt and some FCS call-ups like NDSU, Montana, Coastal Carolina, Missouri St., etc. 60 teams or so in 4 or 5 conferences. Have an 8-team FBS playoff with the FBS National Champion earning a trip to the NY6 bowl game against a Division 4 opponent.

Permit Division 4 to play up to 2 FBS opponents and no FCS opponents. FBS can play 1 FCS opponent. This way, the best teams are forced to play each other more often OOC without having to worry about inferior teams with more shiny win-loss records.


I would say 4 tiers at D1, and 2 tiers at D2. Fold D3 altogther.

Tier 1:FBS Power Schools which includes several G5. I think there will be others than who you think. There are already calls for sites like ESPN for North Dakota State in a P5 conference. Reason? They are fast growing population area, lot of businesses and so forth.
Tier 2:FBS G5 Schools with FCS call ups.
Tier 3:FCS Scholarship schools with the top D2 and some large NAIA football schools like British Columbia.
Tier 4:FCS Non-Scholarship football that includes Pioneer and Ivy. That means D3 top schools can move up to create a west coast Pioneer League, South Central Pioneer League, Midwest Pioneer League, Southeast Pioneer League, Mid Atlantic Pioneer League, and Noerteast Pioneer League. This could get some schools that do not sponser football to add it like the schools that have club teams like Boston U., Milwaukee, Oakland, DePaul, Hartford, Michigan-Flint, Ohio State-Newark, Rollings, Xavier Ohio, Vermont, Cleveland State and so forth.
Tier 5:Non-football schools. This could bring up schools that are already in D1 for 1 or more sports who do not have football from both D2 and D3 mainly for Hockey, baseball and La Crosse. this could help give conferences like the WAC, Summitt, Big South and A-Sun to start replenish their conferences.

D2 will have 2 tiers for football.
1.Scholarship football.
2.Non-scholarship football like the rest of D3.
3.No football schools.
D2 could also invite for football only to NAIA, NCCAA, Concordia-Alabama and The Apprentice schools. The Apprentice already have a working arrangement with the NCAA for an affiliation for all sports. They are mainly a trade school than a normal university. Morthland is an affiliate of NCCAA, and are an accountable game with NCAA and NAIA.
08-31-2015 12:20 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
If the right two teams were available for the B1G to take, then it certainly could expand to 16.
08-31-2015 02:24 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 12:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 11:21 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 11:06 AM)pablowow Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 08:58 AM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  Do you think the P5's plan is to go to 16 teams each? If they want to break off, wouldn't it make sense to have a P4 of 16 teams each, for 4 even-sized conferences? Have an 8 team playoff. (4 conf winners plus 4 at-large).

P5's will be 16 and absorb American and be 80 teams..(my opinion) how it will look is only driven by the conference that gets eaten. My guess (big 12) it will picked apart. American will gain 6 or so and lose a couple to the big 4. the voting structure is already done for P5. They will honor the last group of 16. and I think it retain the name American.

I do think once the old power conferences get their schools they want to be aligned with long term(AAU, geography, size, etc) American will be stable and will grow from there. Just like ACC did the last 20 years. This is similar to how things went in the early eighties when FBS left a bunch of teams behind.

The legislation in 1981 to knock teams out of I-A was driven by the NCAA leadership in a desperate attempt to boost how much money the NCAA sent to power teams from the TV contract (reducing sharing) in order to try to convince the power group to end the legal challenges to the NCAA TV contract.

The move failed to produce the desired result.

The power schools have never pushed an agenda to reduce the size of I-A/FBS and the biggest change (autonomy) was not a reaction to problems from the G5 but rather the FCS and non-football schools.

There simply is no evidence of the P5 having any need or desire to trim out the G5 schools.


There were a lot of victims with the rules from widdling down to D1, D2 and D3, and then divide even more to FBS and FCS. MVC was one of the victims since they used to be at FBS level that included West Texas A&M. Grinnell and Drake used to be Big 8 members at one time. Grinnell now in D3 and Drake in FCS.
Wayne State Michigan, Midwestern State, and Washburn used to be D1.
NCAA wound up wrecking conferences. I think Big 10's Chicago team that had sports dropped it because of what the NCAA was doing.
As it is, Slive did hinted that G5 schools that keep up with the P5 will be treated equals. It was hinted for some of the G5 schools in the MWC, AAC, Eastern Washington is spending money, Northern Iowa is spending, Missouri State is spending, Liberty is spending, North Dakota State and so forth in upgrading their facilities and all that. Before anybody say anything about FCS schools, we need to face the facts that some of these schools are valuable to a P5 view point. You only have Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State as only 4 teams in the northwest. Portland State (far behind), UNR, Boise State, Idaho and Eastern Washington are the only other teams in the northwest. I put Utah, Utah State and BYU in the Rocky Mountain region.

Wyoming, Montana, Montana State, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Colorado State, Air Force, South Dakota, Northern Iowa and South Dakota State are important for a north central region for the north plains schools like Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State and Minnesota. I would toss in Omaha if they readd football, Minn.-Duluth and Mankato State as well. I think there is some regret for Omaha dropping football. Nebraska vs Omaha in football would be a treat for the fans in state, plus Nebraska could save a little money for them to pay FCOAs.

Wichita State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, plus UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, Colorado State-Pueblo and West Texas A&M could be important to fill in spaces in the southern Rockies. Northern Arizona, maybe Arizona Western down the road in the future, and some of the California schools are important as well for the southwest. Plus the UNLV as well.

The reason I am saying this is that G5 schools and FCS schools are important to the P5 for cost savings. That is why PAC 12 schedule Big Sky and MWC schools, and if they could put GNAC schools on the scedule? They can play them as well. It would give some of the top D2 schools some extra money if they do play FBS schools.

Remember that I am thinking and planning things out what could be best for college football in the long run. We all need to think more outside of the box to see what is right there, who are ready to play at the FBS level, and who can compete. Just a couple of years ago, Arkansas Tech almost beat McNeese State and McNeese State beat South Florida the same year. It is an example that some of the top D2 schools might be able to compete against FBS schools. Would FCS schools would like more conferences from D2 move up? The football schools would love to add some extra bodies at FCS level since many have left for FBS.
Texas State
UTSA
South Alabama
Charlotte
Georgia State
Old Dominion
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Plus with Coastal Carolina and Eastern Kentucky on the verge to join Sun Belt as a proactive since Big 12 could announce after the end of football season that when they get left out, they will expand some teams.

Now, who did FCS brought up in recent years?
Houston Baptist
Northern Kentucky
Grand Canyon U.
Abilene Christian
Incarnate Word

FCS is falling behind. Yeah, they did gain Stetson, Mercer, East Tennessee State, Houston Baptist, and Kennessaw State for football, but the schools were already in D1 or added the sport after moving up. New Orleans is supposed to be starting a football team this year, but they have delayed it. New Orleans and Tulane both are fighting for the same type of donations for football.
With Liberty, Missouri State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, james Madison, Lamar, Sam Houston State, Stony Brook, SFA, Jacksonville State, Alabama State, Dayton,Long Beach State and Delaware State all are thinking of going to FBS someday, you would wonder how long would the football schools stay with the basketball schools for long without adding or replenish the conferences for football?

Grinnell left the Valley in 1939. I feel confident it had nothing to do with TV money or I-A vs. I-AA issues.
08-31-2015 02:52 PM
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Hashtag Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
Jim Delaney is by far the best P5 conference commissioner. The B10 has 1 CFB title and 0 CBB titles in last 12 years but still has the biggest per team payout. He's a genius, innovative.
Sure B10 has loyal, passionate fan bases, but so does the SEC.

So, I don't think B10 thinks in terms of 16 being a hard cap. Even if the math is nice and symmetrical, they will do what they wna do bc they are the best managed conference in college sports and they know how to sell their product for the max $.

It's not inconceivable that they go to 20 at some point in the future, with 2 divisions run as wholly owned subsidiaries, fans and rivalries be damned. B10 as a parent company...eg. Alphabet/Google.
They could have some cutesy rivalry between their divisions..."we're the real B10"...haha whatever...

He made a comment a while ago about admiring the eastern seaboard. If he wanted to go after UVA, UNC, Dook, Syracuse, GT, and Texas, they would and just try to own the eastern U.S.

If further consolidation is on the horizon, I don't think 4x16 is manifest destiny.
08-31-2015 03:39 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 03:39 PM)Hashtag Wrote:  Jim Delaney is by far the best P5 conference commissioner. The B10 has 1 CFB title and 0 CBB titles in last 12 years but still has the biggest per team payout. He's a genius, innovative.
Sure B10 has loyal, passionate fan bases, but so does the SEC.

So, I don't think B10 thinks in terms of 16 being a hard cap. Even if the math is nice and symmetrical, they will do what they wna do bc they are the best managed conference in college sports and they know how to sell their product for the max $.

It's not inconceivable that they go to 20 at some point in the future, with 2 divisions run as wholly owned subsidiaries, fans and rivalries be damned. B10 as a parent company...eg. Alphabet/Google.
They could have some cutesy rivalry between their divisions..."we're the real B10"...haha whatever...

He made a comment a while ago about admiring the eastern seaboard. If he wanted to go after UVA, UNC, Dook, Syracuse, GT, and Texas, they would and just try to own the eastern U.S.

If further consolidation is on the horizon, I don't think 4x16 is manifest destiny.

I see Delaney getting behind CCG deregulation. And then, he will use that deregulation to poach from the Big 12 and the ACC - the two conference most wanting deregulation - so that the B1G can have nice NFL-looking divisions from the Great Plains through the Midwest and up and down the eastern seaboard.

Here's what I think is Delaney's wishful thinking - and he's one who could pull it off:

B1G NORTH: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana
B1G EAST: Penn St., Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St., Rutgers, Notre Dame
B1G SOUTH: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Florida
B1G WEST: Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri
(This post was last modified: 08-31-2015 04:18 PM by YNot.)
08-31-2015 04:14 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
Just as possible some end up at 18 and some at 14 ... there's no particular benefit to any given conference in having the same number of schools as all of the others, and if there is a realignment in the 2020's, it will end up being just as messy as this last wave has been.
08-31-2015 05:14 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
American in the new Div-4? Never going to happen. The P5 will become the P4, and they won't do so just to include the "best of the rest conference"...
08-31-2015 05:17 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 05:17 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  American in the new Div-4? Never going to happen. The P5 will become the P4, and they won't do so just to include the "best of the rest conference"...


You don't get it. Slive said basically there are tables for G5 schools that could keep up with the P5 schools. BYU and Boise State are 2 that can go somewhere. Cincinnati and UCF are another. And Memphis does have the history behind them to be part of a P5 conference.
08-31-2015 05:55 PM
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Rabbit_in_Red Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
DavidST, you're the one that's advocated for North Dakota to be in the B1G...I'm not sure that I'M the one that doesn't get it here. Seriously, go play somewhere else and stop trying to correct the grown ups while we're talking.
08-31-2015 06:44 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.
08-31-2015 06:47 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 05:55 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 05:17 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  American in the new Div-4? Never going to happen. The P5 will become the P4, and they won't do so just to include the "best of the rest conference"...


You don't get it. Slive said basically there are tables for G5 schools that could keep up with the P5 schools. BYU and Boise State are 2 that can go somewhere. Cincinnati and UCF are another. And Memphis does have the history behind them to be part of a P5 conference.

You are advocating for small schools that have no interest in football to waste money by starting programs, and schools who are quite content where they are in FCS moving up to FBS,but HE doesn't get it?

Irony can be pretty ironic sometime
08-31-2015 06:53 PM
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Rabbit_in_Red Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 06:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.

These are the things we agree on. There's just a slight difference in HOW we get there that we're not in agreement on.
08-31-2015 07:04 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 06:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.

There is no plan that the P5 - or a subset of the P5 - is working from. There is no collusion between the conferences. What I see is game theory involving rational actors who are working for their self interest only. The theories and ideas are post hoc rationalizations to explain what is happening - a "Realignment God" of the gaps belief.

OSU and UM mystique is on the rise; therefore, Delaney...
08-31-2015 09:34 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
The only thing that creates movement is more money in the till.

The only way to do that is increase revenue or decrease costs.

With new softness in ESPN subscriptions being reported and consumers cord cutting and demanding new "skinny" non sports bundles I honestly believe we have reached the peak of sports rights fees going up.

if that is the case most of the movement we see in the future is going to be among the G5 and is going to involve regionalization to lower costs.

This will be resisted at first by many in the G5 such as ECU, UCONN, Cinci, etc but eventually falling revenues will force reality upon the G5 and they will be forced to cut costs to survive.

You will see waves of regionalization as broadcasters start paying a "non P5" rate that is homogenized across conference boundaries.

During this regionalization wave you will see a few stronger FCS teams move up into the G5 along lines of similar size, markets and fan support.

But all movement will make sense in ways to reduce costs and hopefully build more close regional rivalries that can pack stadiums on a yearly basis.

App and Charlotte are the perfect example of this.

They are a couple of hours apart and would pack their stadiums for this game every two years. There is more money to be had in this type of game than flying football and all the Olympics to Texas.

There are probably lots of situations like this all over the country.

Mark it. It will happen.
(This post was last modified: 08-31-2015 09:45 PM by gassman.)
08-31-2015 09:40 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 09:34 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 06:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.

There is no plan that the P5 - or a subset of the P5 - is working from. There is no collusion between the conferences. What I see is game theory involving rational actors who are working for their self interest only. The theories and ideas are post hoc rationalizations to explain what is happening - a "Realignment God" of the gaps belief.

OSU and UM mystique is on the rise; therefore, Delaney...

Your attempt to attach ridiculous notions to the concept does not make the concept ridiculous, it just makes you ridiculous. Your personal concept of a "Plan" is simply childish and "conspiratorial".
08-31-2015 09:44 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 09:34 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 06:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.

There is no plan that the P5 - or a subset of the P5 - is working from. There is no collusion between the conferences. What I see is game theory involving rational actors who are working for their self interest only. The theories and ideas are post hoc rationalizations to explain what is happening - a "Realignment God" of the gaps belief.

OSU and UM mystique is on the rise; therefore, Delaney...

What if I told you that cooperation amongst conferences WAS in their best interest, and that the ends would justify the means?
09-01-2015 05:43 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
I don't see who the PAC 12 or SEC would add that would make sense. Certainly not the Big 12 either
09-01-2015 06:11 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(08-31-2015 09:40 PM)gassman Wrote:  The only thing that creates movement is more money in the till.

The only way to do that is increase revenue or decrease costs.

With new softness in ESPN subscriptions being reported and consumers cord cutting and demanding new "skinny" non sports bundles I honestly believe we have reached the peak of sports rights fees going up.

if that is the case most of the movement we see in the future is going to be among the G5 and is going to involve regionalization to lower costs.

This will be resisted at first by many in the G5 such as ECU, UCONN, Cinci, etc but eventually falling revenues will force reality upon the G5 and they will be forced to cut costs to survive.

You will see waves of regionalization as broadcasters start paying a "non P5" rate that is homogenized across conference boundaries.

During this regionalization wave you will see a few stronger FCS teams move up into the G5 along lines of similar size, markets and fan support.

But all movement will make sense in ways to reduce costs and hopefully build more close regional rivalries that can pack stadiums on a yearly basis.

App and Charlotte are the perfect example of this.

They are a couple of hours apart and would pack their stadiums for this game every two years. There is more money to be had in this type of game than flying football and all the Olympics to Texas.

There are probably lots of situations like this all over the country.

Mark it. It will happen.


The problem that you have with your statement is that P5 schools do value some of the G5 and FCS schools more than you think. Might be long history or something like that?

The service academy are valued by all the P5 schools. The long history and prestiged in those schools.
BYU is like the Notre Dame of the west. Not on a larger scale, but they are similar.
Cincinnati, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, USF, SMU, Houston, Rice, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio U. Arkansas State, Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNR, UTEP, and rising of Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington and UTSA could reach the million viewership ratings mark soon.
As long as the top G5 schools get an average of more than a million tv ratings, there would be money be made right there.
That is why many G5 schools are being looked at for P5 spots.

The problem with schools like in the Big 12 is that many of their schools overlapped each other, and can't be telling of a long run of a viewer average until they add no markets. People would tune in to see a rematch between Oklahoma and Boise State if Boise State becomes a member of the Big 12. If both teams play the same way like they did in the Fiesta Bowl? People will tune in every year.
East Carolina is earning more than Duke and Wake Forest right now in ticket sales. So, East Carolina could do even better in a P5, and be number 3 college and University in the state of North Carolina in football. They could be the number 1 football team better than all 4 of the ACC schools right now.
09-01-2015 06:28 AM
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miko33 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Are P5's going to 16?
(09-01-2015 05:43 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:34 PM)miko33 Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 06:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(08-31-2015 09:25 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is no "plan"

Now if an irrefutable opportunity presented itself, like the SEC getting a pair of NC/VA schools from the ACC or ND decides to join the ACC full time or @Austin wants to join the PAC etc THEN movement might happen but there will be no big secret backroom deal "plan" to make it happen all once

Actually there is. People don't want to believe that and that is ok but I have a different perspective on it. I also have been here watching the change happening. Concepts and ideas that people called me crazy for are now commonplace talking points.

That is part of the plan, dragging the slow to change traditionalists along.

The only aspects up for debate still are details but the general plan is known and understood. Everyone knows who is in the know because the money is just too great to pass up on.

There is no plan that the P5 - or a subset of the P5 - is working from. There is no collusion between the conferences. What I see is game theory involving rational actors who are working for their self interest only. The theories and ideas are post hoc rationalizations to explain what is happening - a "Realignment God" of the gaps belief.

OSU and UM mystique is on the rise; therefore, Delaney...

What if I told you that cooperation amongst conferences WAS in their best interest, and that the ends would justify the means?

OK. Did you know that American oil companies colluding with OPEC is in the best interest of the world oil industry, and arguably for other parts of the economy that interact with petroleum? Or that collusion among these entities makes it more feasible for green energy initiatives to become viable?

Won't happen though, because competition is needed for consumers to have access to cheaper energy. Also, collusion breeds a lack of trust amongst the colluding parties that ultimately results in the Prisoners Dilemma being observed. SEC does not trust B1G, PAC doesn't trust Big12, etc... There is no trust between these conferences. And if there were binding agreements among the conferences, then that would be illegal because of collusion.
09-01-2015 06:31 AM
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