RE: Latest rumor regarding the B1G
If this is true, this is an absolutely enormous event. It basically removes the red tape and allows Delany to go to the mattresses. What would be interesting to know is the duration of the "deal" and who his wartime consigliere is and how they are advising him. Even still, the only school that is desireable and available (not tied up in GOR) is UConn and the SEC schools. Noone would leave the SEC except maybe Mizzou.
The other option would be to do such damage to the Big 12 or ACC that they fold or reorganize. The Big 12 would suffer immeasurably with the loss of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The ACC would be a much tougher nut to crack. The weakness of the ACC is that they only own 2 states lock, stock, and barrel: Virginia & North Carolina. It is no secret that the B1G and the SEC want to carve up Virginia and North Carolina like a turkey. Using a little game theory, a little luck, and a whole lot of prayer it is not impossible to come up with a scenario in which the ACC could be reduced in size.
To start with, one of the statements Delany has made repeatedly is that demographics were the driving force behind B1G expansion. While some massive markets were added the issue wasn't really addressed and it won't be addressed unless and until a whole southern division is added. At the same time the markets of North Carolina and Virginia are the lone southern markets the SEC isnt in and the state of Virginia in particular can put the SEC in DC straight away.
The key to this whole thing is the timing of events. As long as the ACC schools stand firm, there's little to do to pry one away. But each school has its own interests, competition from SEC schools with greater resources, budgets to meet, etc that pull in different directions. With that being said:
The Wishful Thinking Scenario
Step 1: a "Tech" Problem. I think the SEC goes after Virginia Tech first and the B1G goes after Georgia Tech. VA Tech is probably the #1 candidate for the SEC because of their football program and proven access to the DC market. Georgia Tech was a charter SEC member but obviously not the ACC and is not amongst the old guard of the ACC. They are surrounded by excessively well funded SEC schools and could use the additional money. The B1G would love to gain access to the heart of the south and an elite engineering school.
Step 2: NC State to the SEC. The problem that NC State has with UNC, Texas A&M had with Texas. SEC membership has completely removed the shadow that UT had over aTm and the sales pitch to the largest school in North Carolina would be to look at what has happened at aTm. Recruits aren't ignoring UT but aTm is the hottest offer around for recruits in the state of Texas and the same could be true of NC State.
Step 3: B1G goes after Florida State and/or Miami. Similar to Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami are surrounded by good football schools in the SEC but dissimilar to Georgia Tech have had success in football especially FSU recently. The B1G can provide TV money and an academic consortium that has no equal in Div 1 athletics. Big Ten would be ecstatic to add the state of Florida and hopefully their many talented football recruits.
Step 4: B1G convinces Old Guard of Tobacco Road to start a southern division in the B1G. Having lost the states of Georgia and Florida and the SEC infiltrating in Virginia and North Carolina the Trio of UVA, UNC, and Duke decide to keep southern roots and elite academic company by joining the B1G.
Step 5: B1G goes hard after Texas as the Southern Division crown jewel. B1G convinces Texas to become a part of the Southern Division along with UVA, Duke, UNC, GT, Florida State and/or Miami.
in order to create a critical mass and not have the southern members feel like outliers i feel like the B1G expands by 6 or 7 schools. 6 brings you to an even 20 which is most likely IMO. 7 would be to get to 3 equal divisions of 7. Expansion by 10 would be highly unlikely but still a consideration. If an outlandish 10 is the goal then Oklahoma, Kansas, and UConn may be the order of the day. Mizzou would fit in best with that group obviously but i dont think anyone is leaving the SEC since Tulane in 1966.
Final analysis. I don't think any expansion is happening until at least 2025 when three Grants are up. However if this is true that Delany will have Carte Blanche in realignment matters the question is why would they give him that authority if they didnt intend for him to use it? It is wonderful to speculate though... so speculate on my friends.
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