Might be interesting to see what some on the board think. Lots of unknowns answers in that question I know --- Where does realignment go for the next schools, if it goes anywhere? How do the new P5 rules affect the AAC schools long term? The new playoffs and the vast money differences enough or is there a total P5 breakaway? What does Texas do? Not to mention the possible challenges from other G5s? So forget all of those as yet to be seen surprises - or not. Well you get the idea ---

In before this thread inevitably doesn't end well

In the real American conference with the big city schools plus Boise & ECU.

With the way college sports are going, especially football, I'm not even positive this conference will be around in 10 years and if it is, it will have a much different makeup in terms of what teams are in it.

I could be totally wrong and to be honest with you I hope I am and it's exactly the same or we've added some teams and gotten even better. I think this can be a great conference and we need to stick together to make that happen.

I hope the conference is gone and we are all in power conferences. My fear is, we will all be here having this same discussion in ten years.

Get back to after two months

How can we get a contract with a premier bowl again ?

(02-12-2015 11:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I hope the conference is gone and we are all in power conferences. My fear is, we will all be here having this same discussion in ten years.

I concur.

I think cusa 2.0 completes the loop after losing more teams and makes between 5 and 8 mill. I do think byu will join eventually. Second option is sdsu Boise and byu join and everyone gets bumped to 10 milly

Most or all of us will still be here, and the AAC will be the #6 conf somewhat above the rest of the G6.

I have no idea about realignment. I know a lot of people like to play expert on that, but I'm not one of them. We could be going somewhere, or not, or gaining members, or losing other members and us staying.... nothing would surprise me.

With that out of the way, if the American stands "as is", I see becoming a strong basketball focused conference. Schools with solid budgets and support that can't quite break into the good old boys club of college football will probably pour resources into hoops. Memphis, Cincy, UConn, and to a lesser extent Temple and some others already have basketball tradition. I think we become a consistent 4 bid league and the top programs are national contenders.

Football, I'm more pessimistic, but I'm still not going too extreme. I think things would continue almost exactly as they are now, with maybe a slight downtick in support as we get further away from national relevance. Mostly, I think American fans would support there teams much in the same way that MWC fans supported there teams for the last 10 years.

So many variables to consider. How does the changing dynamic in TV and online streaming affect ESPN and the conference networks, their finances and thus their power. How do the lawsuits and autonomy play out, the deregulation of conference scheduling, increasing the size of the CFP... Lots of questions and bc of them I think the conference is intact 10 years from now in its current form and perhaps larger, but either way making more money. Not entitled money but better and enough.

(02-13-2015 08:23 AM)uccheese Wrote:  I have no idea about realignment. I know a lot of people like to play expert on that, but I'm not one of them. We could be going somewhere, or not, or gaining members, or losing other members and us staying.... nothing would surprise me.

With that out of the way, if the American stands "as is", I see becoming a strong basketball focused conference. Schools with solid budgets and support that can't quite break into the good old boys club of college football will probably pour resources into hoops. Memphis, Cincy, UConn, and to a lesser extent Temple and some others already have basketball tradition. I think we become a consistent 4 bid league and the top programs are national contenders.

Football, I'm more pessimistic, but I'm still not going too extreme. I think things would continue almost exactly as they are now, with maybe a slight downtick in support as we get further away from national relevance. Mostly, I think American fans would support there teams much in the same way that MWC fans supported there teams for the last 10 years.

I am no guru, but I can't picture AAC not evolving. American made solid moves on recruiting and coaching. I think we should expect a better situation about football.

Looking into my crystal ball...

I see the B1G, ACC, B12 & Sun Belt working together to deregulate conference championship games. The B1G and ACC are in it because of rivalry preservation that can only happen if divisions are nixed. The B12 and Sun Belt are in it because they want title games without 12 members. Together, they get it done...

...and because of that, there is no expansion among the autonomy 5.

I see C-USA sitting with 13 members for a few years while UAB sorts things out. 10 years from now I suppose they could be back in a 14-team C-USA.

I see the Sun Belt trying to lure JMU while Liberty screams 'Me! Me! Me!', but still with the same 11 teams a decade from now.

Perhaps UMass has a football scheduling agreement with C-USA or the Belt or both in exchange for some basketball home-and-homes.

The Mountain West and the American both still sit at 12 football/11 basketball, and have formed a closer relationship with a few bowl meetings and a basketball challenge. The two conferences are knocking at the A5 door on the field/court, but are still trailing by a significant margin financially. They don't offer their athletes all the bells and whistles the A5 do, but they do offer more than the other 3 outsiders.

BYU is playing mostly American, MW and ACC teams and remains independent in football.

Notre Dame and Army are also still independent in football.

The NCAA tournament has expanded to 96 teams, and the American gets 5-6 teams in most seasons. East Carolina FINALLY stops playing D2 teams and have built the top non-ACC program in state of North Carolina.

I see the P5 working to separate themselves even further and probably forming a new division.

If the AAC is still around and with the current makeup (and an addition or two) the only hope is that the conference is a part of the new division. If not you will see many schools struggle to stay relevant in football and certainly struggle to support the sport financially.

We'll have someone not named Pastner as our basketball coach. We'll have someone not named Fuente as our football coach. The money separation and proposed transfer rules will take a toll and the quality of football between the haves and have nots will become even larger. We'll have an 8 team playoff. I don't see the AAC configured as it is now. After the expiration of the Big 12 Grant of Rights I see Texas and Oklahoma leading the way in the next realignment unless Texas gets an even bigger sweetheat deal from the Big 12. If not, I think UConn and Cincinnati will be somewhere else. Marshall might be AAC. If not in the Big 12 BYU will remain independant. Maybe not in 10 years but at some point I see the best of the remaining G5 teams in the AAC and MWC joining giving that new conference the best media rights and bowl possibilities. As it has done up to this point money leads.

Over the next four seasons, the American will go toe-to-toe with Boise St. for the G5 Access Bowl bid. The American will get it twice and Boise St. will get it twice. Each year, the Selection Committee waffles on who is ranked higher with each release of the CFP rankings and inexplicably propels one over the other in the final rankings.

American basketball grabs 4 or 5 NCAA tourney bids each season, with consistent Sweet 16 representation by UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulsa, and/or SMU, and surprising Final Four runs by both Temple and Houston in the 2017 tournament.

As Aresco enters TV deal extension negotiations following the 2018 season, he courts Boise St. and San Diego State again. As talks heat up, BYU and Colorado St. are also part of the expansion discussion and talks elevate to full-membership expansion.

In desperation, MWC commissioner Craig Thompson pleads with Aresco for a deal that includes strong MWC-American regular season scheduling and bowl affiliations and an American-MWC championship game - essentially for the G5 Access Bowl bid. Reports are made that it is a done deal.

UConn and Cincinnati publicly threaten to defect to the Big East with the intention to enter into a scheduling affiliation with the MAC as a temporary program-sustaining option. Also, reports surface that Thompson was adamant that a new jointly-owned "Mountain America" channel was crucial to the deal and that all major decisions should be run through a joint headquarters in either Laramie or Logan. (After talks fizzle, Thompson labels the proposed new TV channel as a "no brainer" and retorts that Aresco could "take his pick" of the proposed joint headquarters location).

Ultimately, the announcement is made that the American adds a 6-team western division and a scheduling affiliation with Army. The new western division includes Boise St., BYU, Colorado St., San Diego St., UNLV, and Air Force. The Commander-in-Chief Trophy is essentially brought in-house and, along with the new western division, nets a 7-year TV deal with ESPN and CBS worth $18 million per school per year, starting with the 2020 football season. (Navy gets $15 mil per year as a football only member and Army gets $10 mil as part of the scheduling arrangement).

The deal guarantees a weekly American "game of the week broadcast" on ABC or CBS (alternating) as well as weekly Saturday broadcasts on both ESPN and ESPN2, and ESPN broadcasts on Thursday and Friday nights. It also provides for TWO weekly men's basketball games in January through March each year on ABC and CBS broadcast stations (alternating), the American tournament championship game on ABC or CBS (again, alternating), and over 120 men's basketball games on ESPN and ESPN2 throughout the season.

The deregulation of conference championships, that commenced in 2017, allows the American to establish a football conference championship tournament that includes the winners of the Eastern, Central, Western, and Armed Forces divisions, with the semi-final round hosted at the higher ranked teams' home fields. The football championship game venue rotates around the country. Although the CFP selection criteria are not revised, the G5 Access Bowl bid becomes known colloquially as the "American's NY6 berth."

In 2025, the American signs a deal with the Fiesta Bowl to send its annual champion to the game (a la the renewed relationships with Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls). To support its move, the Fiesta Bowl cites the fact that 9 out of the previous 10 bowl seasons it had hosted a team that is now a member of the American conference with tremendous attendance and TV ratings. Thus, the American is officially signed as part of the NY6 bowl system. In renewing it's rights to broadcast the new 8-team CFP, a clause is added that allows the Peach and Cotton Bowls to host the American champion, with the conference's permission.

(02-13-2015 01:00 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Get back to after two months

Is that when your invite comes?

(02-13-2015 02:16 PM)zfred12 Wrote:  

(02-13-2015 01:00 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Get back to after two months

Is that when your invite comes?

Or maybe, money willing, a new basketball coach.

(02-13-2015 02:16 PM)zfred12 Wrote:  

(02-13-2015 01:00 AM)Ramen_Tiger Wrote:  Get back to after two months

Is that when your invite comes?

Yes, it will happen on 4/1