Quote:Ok, if I were on the committee, my NIU argument.
I would not say they are that all but their the deserving #2 team. I think beating a P5 team. Yes, I know a 5-7 team, but NIU kept NW out of a bowl due to that win. AAC Champs and Marshal have no P5 wins. Loss to Arkansas not a bad loss. In conference loss to a 7-5 team is not worse than AAC or Marshall in conference loss. 11-2 team plays one more game, two more wins than 9-3 AAC. Played better OOC than Marshall at 12-1. As I stated, I think the AAC not having a CCG and multiple champs will be negative for the AAC. Just a hunch, the committee would prefer an outright champion.
I want to say NIU would be ahead of Marshall at this time, but I can't say that. Marshall's at least a tad over them -- one can see that in virtually all polls: Sagarin, AP, USAToday, etc.
1) The loss to Arkansas by 38 was a bad loss. If they lost by 17? Not bad. Lost by 7? Good. Lost by 38? Bad.
2) The loss to 7-5 CMU at home by 17 was worse than Marshall losing to 7-5 W Ky by 1 in OT, who STOMPED BGSU, the MAC East Champ. Both are bad -- the CMU one is worse if you want to compare.
3) A P5 team doesn't mean a lot by itself. It implies something. Beating a 3-9 P5 team is never as good as beating an 8-4 G5 team. Beating a 5-7 P5 team can sometimes be not as good as beating a 8-4 G5 team.
4) NIU was winning "Florida State style". They don't have a strong SoS in their wins. Toledo, NW, WMU are their top 3, by an average of 7 points.
5) They also struggled in their wins against poor teams the same way Marshall stomped many of theirs. That makes up for the SoS difference.
BUT:
1) NW is a strong 5-7 team. They beat Wisconsin & ND. They're a weird bunch, it means something. However, not being bowl-eligible, it doesn't carry too much weight.
2) They're going to look at Bowl-Eligible Top-Teams beat + negative effect of losses
Going by Sagarin Ratings of the team's FBS Opponents (both stomped their FCS teams):
Marshall (11-1):
#79 W. Kentucky - LOST BY 1 OT
#84 Rice - Won by 27
#90 @UAB - Won by 5
#102 MTSU - Won by 25
#117 @Old Dom - Won by 42
#125 @FL-Int - Won by 32
#131 Ohio - Won by 30
#135 FL-Atl - Won by 19
#136 @Akron - Won by 31
#139 @SMiss - Won by 46
#152 @Miami - Won by 14
NIU (10-2):
#14 @Arkansas - LOST BY 38
#62 @Northwestern - Won by 8
#81 @WMU - Won by 10
#82 Toledo - Won by 3
#101 CMU - LOST BY 17
#121 @BSU - Won by 14
#131 @Ohio - Won by 7
#152 Miami - Won by 10
#157 @UNLV - Won by 14
#164 Kent St - Won by 3
#200 @EMU - Won by 11
If you group all the teams not close to #100 being grouped together, yeah, that helps NIU. However:
1) Arkansas is not a #14 team. #30-something at best. But they made Missouri close! Yeah, Indiana beat Missouri. They're the BGSU of their MAC-East like division of the SEC. :) Computer rankings have their outliers. Arkansas is a good team, don't get me wrong. Just not a Top 15 team. More like a Top 35 team. GOOD to beat. BAD to get stomped by if you're vying for Top-G5 or ranking spot.
2) NIU's 17-pt loss to CMU was worse than Marshall's to W. Kentucky in OT.
3) NIU's best win (@NW by 8) is better than Marshall's best win (Rice by 27).
4) Marshall's 'bad win' against @UAB by 5 is roughly the same as NIU's win by 3 against Toledo at home.