(12-02-2014 01:28 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  IF Boise goes down, my vote would be Memphis. Won h2h vs. UC and will win the conference. The Herd just didn't play anybody and did not look very impressive doing it in a few of the games. It was not a good year for the G5 over all.

For no reason in particular, was pulling for Colorado St for the top slot.

If not Memphis, I too would have liked to have seen CSU. I have Boise fatigue.

(12-02-2014 01:28 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  IF Boise goes down, my vote would be Memphis. Won h2h vs. UC and will win the conference. The Herd just didn't play anybody and did not look very impressive doing it in a few of the games.

Seems like Memphis has the inside track, on H2H, and while "we had better losses than they did against P5 teams" probably has very little weight as a primary argument (and rightfully so), it does reinforce the H2H advantage.

The CFP only has Boise State at 22, so no indication from them who is waiting in the wings should Boise State stumble.

(12-02-2014 08:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Here is what the committee is supposed to consider when choosing among "otherwise comparable teams". These are NOT numbered, just bullet-pointed, which implies they are of equal value, not rank-ordered:

- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
- Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Like everyone else, Memphis did suffer from key injuries which affected season performance. We might have won the UCLA game if we had our all-time leading pass rusher, Martin Ifedi in the game. We might even have beaten Ole Miss except for the absence of Ifedi and early game losses of running backs Dorceous and Hayes. With slot receiver Sam Craft and Dorceous we might also have won the critical Houston game. All have recovered and are back on the field except for Dorceous.

(12-02-2014 01:28 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  IF Boise goes down, my vote would be Memphis. Won h2h vs. UC and will win the conference. The Herd just didn't play anybody and did not look very impressive doing it in a few of the games. It was not a good year for the G5 over all.

It seems that people are still buying the early-season belief that Marshall has played this horribly awful schedule, or at least one that is horribly more awful than teams like Memphis and UCF.

But the objective evidence says that this is no longer the case. If we look at the various SOS indicators from computers like Sagarin, Massey, etc. the SOS difference between Marshall and those schools is marginal, while in contrast, the difference in overall record remains huge.

I can't see a case for UCF or Memphis over Marshall (Cincy is out, because they can't get the bid over Memphis).

(12-04-2014 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-02-2014 01:28 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  IF Boise goes down, my vote would be Memphis. Won h2h vs. UC and will win the conference. The Herd just didn't play anybody and did not look very impressive doing it in a few of the games. It was not a good year for the G5 over all.

It seems that people are still buying the early-season belief that Marshall has played this horribly awful schedule, or at least one that is horribly more awful than teams like Memphis and UCF.

But the objective evidence says that this is no longer the case. If we look at the various SOS indicators from computers like Sagarin, Massey, etc. the SOS difference between Marshall and those schools is marginal, while in contrast, the difference in overall record remains huge.

I can't see a case for UCF or Memphis over Marshall (Cincy is out, because they can't get the bid over Memphis).

of course you can't. You don't want an AAC team to get it.

I'm sorry but in Massey-
Marshall 119, Memphis 92(after this weekend's CCG for Marshall)- you can spin it anyway you want to but a 27 spot difference is huge. Marshall even with a CCG is one of the 10 worst schedules in the country....

To the OP... I'm not sure but the chances are pretty high that they'll get prison raped on national television.

I guess UCF's remote chances are still alive. Boise has to lose and the committee has to like them better than NIU, Marshall and Cincinnati (assuming those teams win) and Memphis.

Wow. Ruffin is overpaid.

(12-04-2014 10:46 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-04-2014 10:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-02-2014 01:28 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  IF Boise goes down, my vote would be Memphis. Won h2h vs. UC and will win the conference. The Herd just didn't play anybody and did not look very impressive doing it in a few of the games. It was not a good year for the G5 over all.

It seems that people are still buying the early-season belief that Marshall has played this horribly awful schedule, or at least one that is horribly more awful than teams like Memphis and UCF.

But the objective evidence says that this is no longer the case. If we look at the various SOS indicators from computers like Sagarin, Massey, etc. the SOS difference between Marshall and those schools is marginal, while in contrast, the difference in overall record remains huge.

I can't see a case for UCF or Memphis over Marshall (Cincy is out, because they can't get the bid over Memphis).

of course you can't. You don't want an AAC team to get it.

I'm sorry but in Massey-
Marshall 119, Memphis 92(after this weekend's CCG for Marshall)- you can spin it anyway you want to but a 27 spot difference is huge. Marshall even with a CCG is one of the 10 worst schedules in the country....

As has been explained, at the lower reaches of SOS, a 27-point gap is very little. It's the difference between 2-10 Colorado and 3-9 UMass. It's a minor difference, the difference between a very weak schedule and an extremely weak schedule.

Nothing to justify overcoming a 1-loss gap in record, much less a 2-loss gap.

And if we look at all the computers, the gap isn't even 27. E.g., in Sagarin it is just 7, 131 to 124.

It's just impossible to justify Memphis > Marshall based on SOS.

Since UCF and Memphis didn't play, UCF's still in the hunt:

UCF: A last second loss to PSU, butt kicked by Missouri (28 points) and an ugly UConn loss - season complete. Previous NYD game win.

Memphis: Close loss to UCLA (7 points), Butt kicked by Ole Miss (21 points) and a close Houston loss - season complete. No NYD game experience.

Boise: Butt kicked by Ole Miss (22 points) and Air Force (14 points) - Fresno State left. Previous NYD game win.

If BSU wins, I believe they're in at 11-2 - the CCG makes the difference. The championship committee will want a safe pick that has a chance to win.

Another quo hate the AAC and fishing thread.

Boise (they will win), Memphis, Cincy, UCF, NIU, and then Marshall. End of story.

(12-05-2014 07:34 AM)mac6115cd Wrote:  Since UCF and Memphis didn't play, UCF's still in the hunt:

UCF: A last second loss to PSU, butt kicked by Missouri (28 points) and an ugly UConn loss - season complete. Previous NYD game win.

Memphis: Close loss to UCLA (7 points), Butt kicked by Ole Miss (21 points) and a close Houston loss - season complete. No NYD game experience.

Boise: Butt kicked by Ole Miss (22 points) and Air Force (14 points) - Fresno State left. Previous NYD game win.

If BSU wins, I believe they're in at 11-2 - the CCG makes the difference. The championship committee will want a safe pick that has a chance to win.

I have to think the UCONN was such a bad loss that would put them third for the AAC if it is a three way tie. I still think the committee will do everything to avoid having to choose from a co-champion. I really believe Marshall, NIU and Boise would all have to lose for the AAC to get the slot.

^ Someone didn't stay up to watch the end of the UCF game last night.

Hail Mary for the win! http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/ucf-wi...+bubbaprog

(12-05-2014 08:45 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ Someone didn't stay up to watch the end of the UCF game last night.

Hail Mary for the win! http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/ucf-wi...+bubbaprog

wait what? Really? ECU couldn't run out the clock of the last 1:30 after UCF fail a 4th down conversion.

(12-05-2014 08:45 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ Someone didn't stay up to watch the end of the UCF game last night.

Hail Mary for the win! http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/ucf-wi...+bubbaprog

You are correct. Wow. How did they blow that one...?

Msm96wolf exactly why would the committee do everything they can to avoid a co champ? Are you just pulling this out of your hind parts or have you any factual proof of this.

(12-05-2014 08:52 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 08:45 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ Someone didn't stay up to watch the end of the UCF game last night.

Hail Mary for the win! http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/ucf-wi...+bubbaprog

You are correct. Wow. How did they blow that one...?

If you didn't watch, ECU's coach is an idiot. They had the ball with 1:52, UCF with 1 TO, at the UCF 15. With 10 seconds left UCF had the ball at the 35. With his running the QB around, he ate up about 10 more seconds than just taking a knee, didn't try a FG that would have put him up 7 and moved UCF 20 yards closer to the end zone. If he had just had the QB do 4 sneaks he would have eaten up the same amount of time and kept the ball around the 15.

So UCF did a 10 yard pass and then threw one towards the endzone on the next play. Two ECU defenders jumped in front of the UCF player for the ball and didn't jump high enough. One ECU defender stopped to adjust his helmet (seriously). The ball just fell into the UCF players hands at the 1 with no one behind him.

(12-05-2014 09:13 AM)tigersmoke1 Wrote:  Msm96wolf exactly why would the committee do everything they can to avoid a co champ? Are you just pulling this out of your hind parts or have you any factual proof of this.

Nope just watching how this committee works. Please try not to take this as insult. I do think Memphis would be the top choice if an AAC team goes. However, there is not that great of a difference when it comes to Marshall, NIU and Memphis when all is said and done. Memphis does not have a great OOC win, their best argument is we have prettier losses. If Marshall wins CUSA they will finish 12-1, same number of conference losses. Even if Marshal lost to the same p5 teams, they would have the same record. I do think the committee has penalized them with Boise but as some point, you do have to respect 12-1. That is not easy as most teams will attest. If NIU wins the MAC, they finish 11-2 and did play P5 teams with a win. I would not say any of the AAC teams "lookwise" are that better than the other teams. I think the committee will place emphasis on an outright conference champ.

Just why I think the ACCESS order is as follows?
Boise
NIU
Marshall
Memphis

Feel free to disagree, but it is just one person's rationale. Is that now what these boards are for.

One thing I will say, the CFP has made CCG weekends actually have meaning now. As much as people may want to complain about getting it to 8. Four has been a marketing boon for ESPN. Odds are with 8, some losers of CCG are still in. Basically they have created a first round playoff with CCGs, which I prefer.

(12-05-2014 10:03 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 09:13 AM)tigersmoke1 Wrote:  Msm96wolf exactly why would the committee do everything they can to avoid a co champ? Are you just pulling this out of your hind parts or have you any factual proof of this.

Nope just watching how this committee works. Please try not to take this as insult. I do think Memphis would be the top choice if an AAC team goes. However, there is not that great of a difference when it comes to Marshall, NIU and Memphis when all is said and done. Memphis does not have a great OOC win, their best argument is we have prettier losses. If Marshall wins CUSA they will finish 12-1, same number of conference losses. Even if Marshal lost to the same p5 teams, they would have the same record. I do think the committee has penalized them with Boise but as some point, you do have to respect 12-1. That is not easy as most teams will attest. If NIU wins the MAC, they finish 11-2 and did play P5 teams with a win. I would not say any of the AAC teams "lookwise" are that better than the other teams. I think the committee will place emphasis on an outright conference champ.

Just why I think the ACCESS order is as follows?
Boise
NIU
Marshall
Memphis

Feel free to disagree, but it is just one person's rationale. Is that now what these boards are for.

One thing I will say, the CFP has made CCG weekends actually have meaning now. As much as people may want to complain about getting it to 8. Four has been a marketing boon for ESPN. Odds are with 8, some losers of CCG are still in. Basically they have created a first round playoff with CCGs, which I prefer.

sorry but the committee won't respect Marshall at 12-1. Marshall's schedule is pure garbage. Look how long it took them to get in the ratings undefeated.

(12-05-2014 09:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 08:52 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 08:45 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  ^ Someone didn't stay up to watch the end of the UCF game last night.

Hail Mary for the win! http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/ucf-wi...+bubbaprog

You are correct. Wow. How did they blow that one...?

If you didn't watch, ECU's coach is an idiot. They had the ball with 1:52, UCF with 1 TO, at the UCF 15. With 10 seconds left UCF had the ball at the 35. With his running the QB around, he ate up about 10 more seconds than just taking a knee, didn't try a FG that would have put him up 7 and moved UCF 20 yards closer to the end zone. If he had just had the QB do 4 sneaks he would have eaten up the same amount of time and kept the ball around the 15.

So UCF did a 10 yard pass and then threw one towards the endzone on the next play. Two ECU defenders jumped in front of the UCF player for the ball and didn't jump high enough. One ECU defender stopped to adjust his helmet (seriously). The ball just fell into the UCF players hands at the 1 with no one behind him.

Yep....hirrible clock management by ECU coach. On the last play he could have eaten more time off the clock by having the QB throw the ball as high and far as he could out of the end zone.

The ECU guy did not stop to adjust his helmet. Watch the replay, don't just rely on the still photo from a bad angle.