(10-14-2014 01:24 PM)StillJonesing Wrote: (10-14-2014 01:12 PM)HuskyU Wrote: I guess we'll revisit this thread down the road, where someone will be eating crow.
No need to. This is basketball. Crazy $hit like the 7 seed running to the championship obviously happen in this sport, and you should know. I'm just telling what it looks like on paper in October and you are kidding yourself if you think UConn is this slam dunk favorite to repeat/ or a sure bet contender/ or even a no doubt top 4 seed etc at this point.
Maybe if everything comes together but it could just as easily go the other way and I'd think that's the more likely at this point with so many new pieces. Look at SMU one of their McDonalds AA's did nothing as a freshman if you are counting on Hamilton to be a superstar, and I've seen Purvis in college, hopefully he's got better. Again just look at the previous two years. You had Drummond and Nappier one year and were a 9 seed and would have been bubble the year after if you were eligible. You don't look as sure a bet as SMU to me at this point to be in the top 25, no one does and a 10 type seed could be entirely possible for your team and that's nothing to frown at in a rebuilding year.
A couple rebuttals: Regarding citing UConn as a 7 seed last year as part of your argument, they were more like a 5 seed heading into the tournament that got screwed. Their RPI was #22 with 3 quality wins (Florida, Cinci twice). Their seeding was the consequence of Louisville being somewhat of a Kryptonite matchup with guards our pressure D couldn't stop at the point of attack and athletic bigs who could clean us up on the glass. That and the pretty damaging WTF loss at Houston.
I would argue that UConn was more like a 3 seed caliber team that performed like a 5 seed in the regular season and got rewarded with a 7 seed. It's pretty clear they were more than their seed last year. Anyone who thinks they just got hot at the right time wasn't paying that close of attention.
Now I agree that a team with unknowns may not gel right, and I think the 2012 UConn team with Lamb, Drummond and Bazz is a reasonable thing to point to. But the main difference between that season and this one is the 2012 team has a Sophomore Shabazz trying to run the offense. College basketball is all about point guard play and UConn's championship seasons have typically had two on the floor. This year Ryan Boatright will be a more than competent replacement for Napier. In Fact as someone who has watched all 6 tournament games about 10 times each this summer I could argue that Boatright was more important than Napier, primarily for his defensive effort and timely baskets.
UConn's real loss by way of skillset will be the three point shot, especially out of the PF position losing Daniels and Giffey. Ollie's tipped his hand early by saying that we will be a much better fast breaking team this year and look to get 10+ ppg's on the break.
This makes sense because Purvis is probably the most dangerous open court player in the country due to his speed and ability to explode to the rim. Brimah run's the court extremely well for someone just short of 7 feet. Boatright is obviously extremely quick and Uconn can legit play 6 deep at the 1-3 spots. To be effective here we have to rebound much better than we did last year but thankfully Kentan Facey (top 100 kid buried behind Giff and Daniels last year) is our most naturally gifted rebounder. His rebounding rate was the highest on the team in limited minutes. We also added a ready made banger out of GA that's off the radar on most recruiting sites named Rakim (Rock) Lubin. He's 6' 8" 265.
The real question mark here is will the increased rebounding ability of this UConn team offset the three point/late offense advantage they had last year by allowing them to get out on the break. I think it will. Facey may not be the shooter that Daniels and Giffey were, but there is some info leaking out of the team that suggests hes shooting the 15 footer with a high degree of confidence, and there's a practice video on youtube that gets some circulation on the boneyard of him hitting 10 consecutive three pointers.
The biggest reason why this UConn team can be expected to perform similarly to last years team is on the defensive side though. As mentioned earlier the light went off for Boatright last year and he really caused problems for Wilbekin, Harrison, etc. in the tournament. With Boatright disrupting team's ability to start their offense where they want and an assumed maturation in Brimah that will decrease his foul rate and allow us to keep our rim protector on the floor for longer than 20 mpg, UConn should be a top 10 defensive team next year.
Don't forget the backfills on this team aren't freshman. Omar Calhoun was an 11ppg scorer as a freshman who had double hip surgery his sophmore year and lost his stroke a bit, he could easily step in as a Junior and be a factor. Purvis is a junior by age at this point with a year in Ollie's system. Sam Cassel Junior is a prep/Juco old man of a player. Has one of the most mature games on the team. He'll be our Kromah this year.
I was one of the lucky few who dropped a few shickles on UConn to win it all this time last year at 50/1. I'm not a gambler, I just saw the value there. Trust me when I tell you that UConn is once again under the radar. How on earth we can be after winning our 4th NC in 16 years is beyond me.