(07-18-2014 03:15 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: (07-18-2014 02:43 PM)EverRespect Wrote: (07-18-2014 02:35 PM)Smaug Wrote: (07-18-2014 02:20 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (07-18-2014 02:08 PM)Smaug Wrote: Moderating is a two-way street, Tom.
Yea, that's why you don't see us nominating Elizabeth Warren. Hillary will do just fine. So will Mark Warner.
They aren't seen as moderates in Shelby County Alabama, but HRC and Mark Warner are both considered moderates in a national sense.
Still hangin' tough in the Jeffco, Tom.
Warner, maybe. Hillary, not so much.
Hillary and Warner have both been in lockstep with every bad Obama idea and both on record. Either one of them would have major problems getting elected and neither have the cult-like personality Obama has to overcome the failures. The only chance the democrats have would be to try to repackage a governor that has no ties to Washington and can run away from this administration.
You are severely underestimating the desire of soccer moms to see a female CINC. Failing that, The Democrats will rally the 'disenfranchised' to their cause via the specter of the GOP boogeyman that is going to return blacks to the plantation, put women back in the kitchen and gays in the stockades.
Guys,
I can tell you who will win a national election if I have the following information:
1) African American voter turnout percentage
2) Hispanic American voter turnout percentage
3) Young voter turnout percentage
4) Dem voter preference by white females who attend church less than 6x per year.
The Dems have figured it out for Presidential elections. They've spent 30+ years targeting messages, policies, visuals, and campaigns targeting those groups. They constantly try to back the GOP into a corner by forcing them to take positions that will harm/discredit any attempt by the GOP to make inroads with any of the four groups (Sometimes the GOP doesn't even make them work at forcing them to take those positions - the GOP sometimes does so willingly). Then they have an awesome GOTV machine to get them to the polls.
I'll give you an example - Gay rights. The reason why support for the LGBT persons by the Dems is killing the GOP is not because the 3-5 percent of the electorate that is LGBT is really swinging elections, but rather that the Dems support of those rights (and the GOP's opposition to those rights) helps the Dems achieve their goals with white females and young voters. Getting the extra support and massive campaign donations from the LGBT community is a bonus, but from a political standpoint, not really the main course.
Here's another example - abortion rights. Regardless of national polls showing that a majority of Americans say they don't like abortion, that support doesn't change elections. In fact, the Dems support for abortion rights helps them with white non-religious females, and costs them little support elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the GOP has been looking inward. Any attempt to really cut into the Dem message gets slapped down, hard by GOP primary voters, who enforce purity over electablity.
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Here's a news flash, NRA members or LGBT persons don't win or lose elections. Its white women who don't frequently attend church. Everything else is turnout. If your group is already turning up at the polls and you aren't a white women living in a swing state, you really aren't important as to the final result.
And if you just think about how well Hillary will do with the four groups, and you'll see why most people are saying "if she gets the nomination, the election will be over before it starts". Especially if the GOP nominates some man who can be tagged credibly as a homophobic misogynist. And there's plenty on Rand Paul and Ted Cruz.