13thOwl
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RE: Conference baseball tournament - final day scenarios
(05-18-2014 07:27 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (05-17-2014 10:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (05-17-2014 09:49 PM)temchugh Wrote: I a agree with Walt; Blake will not pitch on Wednesday.
I'm fine with McCanna pitching Wednesday. However, I would understand the logic of pitching McDowell on Wednesday. I believe thAt we are lock for hosting a regional. So our performance in the conference tournament is of no real consequence. Pitching McDowell on Wednesday, McCanna on Thu, and Fox in the third game sets us up better for the regional as far as days of rest goes. The risk of going 0-2 would be higher, but that would be ok.
We are not yet a lock to host a regional. I suggest you take a look at Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Report: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/nitty
...and recognize that the Committee will look beyond RPI to get a 3rd Western host (likely Washington) and, possibly, another "newbie" host site. We have the RPI (at least for the moment) and the conference regular season championship, but the Committee will notice that CUSA is the #8th ranked conference. We do not have a particularly strong hosting-worthy resume with regards to record vs. Top 25/50 (3-6 vs. Top 25, 8-10 vs. Top 50). Bottom line-- we can ill-afford to go 2 & Q. Should we win one game we should be safe (but not a lock).
As for setting up for the regionals, we'll have a full week to rest up and go with our preferred rotation, regardless to how far we go in Hattiesburg. Note-- the regionals don't start until the following Friday or Saturday, depending on which side of the bracket we're placed. Had our first game opponent not been FIU, I would have agreed on McDowell as a viable option...but not when you're going against arguably the best starting pitcher in the conference and the best offensive club...and Chase has had but one good outing in his last 3 - 4 appearances.
For those believing we're a lock to host, I suggest reading Kendall's stock report this morning, in which he actually makes the case for both Louisville and LSU over Rice and UH (with Cal Poly, Washington, Oklahoma State, Vandy, TCU and South Carolina ahead of us as regional hosts beyond the 8 national seeds). I do think UH is in jeopardy if they don't advance to the AAC championship, given they finished in 3rd place in conference (4 1/5 games behind Louisville), but save for conference positioning, UH blows us away resume-wise, including their 3-0 record against us. At this point, I think the Committee has an valid excuse--with other viable, justifiable options-- for NOT giving the city of Houston two host spots. In fact, unless both of us win our conference tournaments, at this point, I'd bet against both of us hosting. The question is whether the Committee puts greater weight on conference champions or overall resume...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=9896
Quote:LOOKING AT THE HOSTS
There are some things to discuss from a hosting perspective after Saturday's contests. Beyond the national seeds, we entered the week with Houston, Cal Poly, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Washington, TCU, Vanderbilt and Rice as hosts. However, LSU and Louisville also are teams to watch entering conference tournament action next week.
The Tigers took a major step back in the hosting discussion three weeks ago with a series loss at Texas A&M, but have played well since, splitting a rain-shortened series at home against Alabama last weekend, while hitting the road and sweeping Auburn this weekend. I don't think the Tigers have surpassed Houston or Rice just yet, but they're close, and a strong showing in the SEC tournament might do the trick.
Going inside the Tigers' resume, they have an RPI of 16 after Saturday's victory over Auburn, while they're 4-8 vs. RPI Top 25, 12-12 vs. RPI Top 50 and 18-12 vs. RPI Top 100. LSU also finished the regular season third in the SEC standings. Those are compelling arguments and it makes next week's SEC tournament crucial. If the Tigers don't host, a seamless transition over to the Lafayette, La., Regional likely is on the docket.
As for Louisville, it also is very much in the hosting mix, and there are reasons for committee members to choose the Cards over UH as a host. For instance, the Cards took a road series over UH and won the American Athletic Conference crown, finishing four and a half games in front of the Cougars. UL has an RPI of 19 with a 4-5 mark vs. RPI Top 25, 6-7 mark vs. RPI Top 50 and 13-8 record vs. RPI Top 100.
I'm not ready to officially make the switch to LSU or Louisville as host sites, but my confidence level with Houston and Rice has decreased this weekend.
If you're looking for a surprise host, watch out for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are a long shot to host right now, but always think outside the box. Tech has a head-to-head series win over Indiana to its credit, a fourth-place Big 12 finish, 40 wins, a top-15 RPI, and eight wins vs. RPI Top 25 teams to go with a 26-15 mark vs. RPI Top 100.
Of course, what Kendall fails to recognize in his analysis is that it is HIGLY unlikely that the Committee is going to name 5 SEC teams as regional hosts (along with 3 ACC teams (UVA, FSU, Miami). Consequently, if LSU runs through the SEC tourney and gets to host, it will knock out either South Carolina or Vandy.
If I could mention something that probably isn't part of Kendell's motivation, but is interesting to me, is his travel plans. If someone was going to travel to Hoover to watch the SEC Tourney, might it make sense to make nice with the locals before you get there? Just saying...
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